Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Gulfstream Park
Saturday, December 7, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 11:50 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Mo Clare’s; 5-Hurricane Breeze; 7-Osaka Girl
Forecast: Mo Clare’s was given a run sprinting on turf at Keeneland in her debut last month and today will get serious when stretching out to a mile. She’s a fit on numbers based on that one race but seems likely to produce a significant forward move with C. Landeros riding her back for I. Wilkes. Hurricane Breeze had every chance when establishing a clear lead in a maiden turf router at Keeneland last time but couldn’t quite seal the deal, getting worn down late. She earned a decent figure in the process, so if she doesn’t go backward today the daughter of Summer Front should be a major player. Osaka Girl is gradually improving with experience – she’s increased her speed figures in each of her three career starts – and with another bit of improvement she should at least hit the board. Toss her in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 2: Post 12:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Travy Boy; 7-Tale of Fire; 9-Whyruawesome
Forecast: Trainer J. Navarro has two bullets to fire in this six furlong sprint to kick off the Claiming Crown series and are tough to separate. Whyareuawesome is thoroughly genuine and consistent – he’s been first or second in 21 of 54 career starts – and after a bit of freshening from late September the Monmouth Park shipper seems to have found a proper spot to regain his winning form. He’s a previous winner over the Gulfstream Park main track, is drawn comfortably outside, and should find himself on or near the lead throughout. Stable mate Tale of Fire, perfect in two starts over the local main track, missed at 40 cents on the dollar in his most recent outing in New Jersey in early October but on pure numbers he’s a strong fit at this level and a “must use.” Travy Boy seeks her third straight win and earned a career top speed figure when capturing a Florida-bred stakes race at Gulfstream Park West last month. He’s plenty quick but doesn’t need the lead to win and is worth including in rolling exotic play at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 3: Post 12:47 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Make a Stand; 6-Leading West; 9-Dr. Doyle
Forecast: Make a Stand is a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn with a good inside draw in this maiden special weight turf miler for juveniles. The works are strong, so we suspect this son of Union Rags is cranked up and ready to go. It’ll be interesting to see if he leaves lower than his morning line of 6-1. Leading West also presents value at or near his 6-1 morning line. A closing second in his third career start (but his first for J. Servis) in a two-turn main track maiden affair at Monmouth Park in late September, the Distorted Humor colt should be within striking range throughout and have every chance when it counts. Dr. Doyle, runner-up in a Meadowlands turf sprint in his debut last month while more than four lengths clear of the rest, earned a competitive figure and has a right to improve stretching out. He’s another at a decent price (5-1) that you have to include.
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RACE 4: Post 1:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Liza Star; 5-Cuddle Kitten; 7-Potra LIza
Forecast: Cuddle Kitten was transferred to the J. Navarro barn four races back and hasn’t lost since, most recently winning a listed stakes at Parx in mid-September with a career top speed figure. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy has a good stalking style that ensures a clean trip but it’s hard to be sure how she’ll react to this turn back to a one-turn mile. Let’s assume she’ll adapt just fine. Her Navarro-trained stable mate Potra Liza couldn’t handle Cuddle Kitten when they squared off at Parx, but the daughter of Graydar is a perfect two-for-two over the Gulfstream Park main track and should produce a dangerous late kick. Liza Star is a seven-time winner over the local main track has improved vastly since being claimed by P. Walder back in May. Her recent numbers are strong and if she can shake loose early as the controlling speed she could prove hard to catch. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Cuddle Kitten.
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RACE 5: Post 1:47 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Thinkin Cowtown; 4-Band of Angels
Forecast: Band of Angels earned a career top speed figure when demolishing an $8,000 claiming field at Meadowlands in her most recent outing and J. Navarro-trained mare can win right back with a similar effort today. She has 11 wins and no seconds in her career and always seems to find something extra under pressure in the final stages. Thinkin Cowtown has won four races from 16 career starts, all of her wins coming over the Gulfstream Park turf course. She’s a late running sprinter by trade and could be a threat if she can get some help up front. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Band of Angels on top.
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RACE 6: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Yodel E. A. Who; 8-First Deal; 9-Benefactor
Forecast: Once again J. Navarro has the two main players. Benefactor is very fast on numbers and shows prior winning form over the Gulfstream Park main track. Freshened since September but with a bullet recent workout at Palm Meadows to have him fit and ready, the More Than Ready trained gelding projects to be on or near the lead throughout in the seven furlong affair. Stable mate First Deal doesn’t quite have the speed figures that Benefactor shows but is lightly-raced and seeking his fourth straight win, so it’s entirely possible he hasn’t yet reached his ceiling. The three-year-old colt has the perfect style for this extended sprint trip. Yodel E. A. Who is another on a hot streak – he’s won his last three in thoroughly convincing fashion – and may be the quickest of the quick. He’s worth including at least as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 7: Post 2:52 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Shekky Shebaz; 5-Tiger Blood
Forecast: Shekky Shebaz just finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint and has earned triple-digit Beyer speed figures in his last three starts. Logical top pick, right? Well, he’s 7/5 on the morning line and certainly the one to beat, but Tiger Blood is too good of a racehorse to completely eliminate. A perfect four-for-four over the Gulfstream Park turf course and a winner of 15 races from 40 career starts, the tough-as-nails gelding will never back down from a fight. Clear preference on top goes to Shekky Shebaz, but you should have a few save on at least a few tickets with Tiger Blood in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post 3:24 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Dizzy Gillespie; 6-Sensational Ride; 7-Salsa’s Return
Forecast: J. Navarro once again is well represented with the 9-year-old Salsa’s Return, away since mid-September but a tough old pro with 15 career victories on his resume. The son of Olmodavor has a good stalking style and always lays his body known when the pressure is turn on in the final furlong. Based purely on speed figures he rates top billing. Sensational Ride, now in the P. Walder barn, looks like the speed of the speed based on his Thistledown form. This is a tougher group than he’s been used to seeing, but the son of Dunkirk may get brave if he can shake loose early. The Walder barn has another front-running type in the field, Dizzy Gillespie, who may this time employ rating tactics (he’s won stalking in the past). A seven-time winner over the Gulfstream Park main track, the South Carolina-bred gelding is better than his 12-1 morning line and is worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post 3:56 ET. Grade: B
Use: 7-Vip Nation; 9-Una Luna
Forecast: Una Luna, first or second in 11 of 16 career starts, has been second in each of her last four outings and is due to get back on the winning track. She likes to settle early and then produce a late run and with clear sailing and decent fractions to run at the daughter of Dunkirk may be able to produce the last run. Vip Nation appears the best of the front-running types and just earned a career top speed figure when nosed out in a good New York-bred allowance event over the Aqueduct turf course three weeks ago. A similar effort today may be good enough. Let’s try to survive and advance using just these two, with preference on top to Una Luna.
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RACE 10: Post 4:28 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Forest Fire; 5-Leitone
Forecast: Leitone demolished a $50,000 claiming field with a superior, career-top speed figure at Belmont Park in late October and if the J. Servis-trained horse duplicates that type of performance today he’ll be very hard to beat. The son of Dunkirk always been a need-the-lead type, so if he can clear the field without too much effort the others may be running for second money. Servis’ other starter, Forest Fire, has good early speed as well, but he can be equally effective as a stalker/pouncer so we suspect that strategy will be employed. It won’t be too much of a surprise if the stable mates finish one-two; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Leitone on top.
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RACE 11: Post 5:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Muggsamatic; 7-Dontblamerocket
Forecast: Dontblamerocket packs a powerful late kick and knows where the wire is, having won six of 13 during his career including his last pair with authority. Fast on figures and with a healthy work pattern to have him fit and ready following a three month layoff, the son of Blame offers value at or near his morning line of 4-1. Muggsamatic, claimed in his last three and now in the J. Servis barn (35% with a strong flat-bet profit with this angle), could improve a ton, as many first-off-the-claims do for this outfit. He’s similar on speed figures to Dontblamerocket and also has been known to produce a strong late kick, so with good racing luck he seems certain to be a major player, if not the one to beat. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play.
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