Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Tmorrowisalongtime; 5-Park Avenue
Forecast: Tmorrowisalongtime didn’t get the best of runs when fifth in her recent comeback on grass, lacking room entering the lane and then failing to produce any real turn of foot when clear (though she did gallop out strongly). Bred top and bottom for dirt and with a race under her belt that should serve to sharpen her up, the daughter of Frosted retains U. Rispoli, has trained well on the main track since raced and seems likely to produce a significant forward move. Park Avenue, the deserved morning line favorite at 8/5, is another sporting the second-off-a-layoff angle while retaining F. Prat. After finishing second vs. similar over this track and distance last month while four lengths clear of the rest, the J. Sadler-trained filly should be tighter and tougher today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Time to Party; 4-One Time Mark; 6-Sumter; 7-Facetious
Forecast: The second race is a stronger-than-par maiden juvenile turf sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Time to Party, a good second when worn down late over this course and distance last month, has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him for a stable that has terrific stats (26% with a strong ROI) with the second-time starter angle. The P. Miller-trained son of Kantharos shows two easy breezes since that race to tick him over, so unless there’s a good thing in the field he should earn his diploma. But there are a few others in here with credentials as well, and each will be a better price. Facetious, a $290,000 OBS June sale purchase, is bred to be quick (Distorted Humor ) and smoked a quarter mile during the preview session in 20 4/5 seconds. He’s a good moving colt that looks plenty fit and at 3-1 on the morning line should get plenty of backing on the tote. One Time Mark was sold for $240,000 at the OBS April sale, where he previewed in an ordinary 10 2/5 seconds. However, he has displayed good athleticism in recent workouts for M. Glatt and is bred for turf on both sides of his pedigree. Sumter showed ability in the a.m. for R. Mandella prior to his debut but finished far back after displaying speed to the head of the lane. He’s certain to improve on grass (War Front) and is worth tossing in somewhere at what may be a bigger price than his morning line of 6-1.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kattah; 6-Impossible Task; 7-Albizu
Forecast: Albizu ran well to be third in a similar starter’s allowance main track miler last month, removes blinkers for the first time, and switches to U. Rispoli. The K. Mulhall-trained son of Include has produced a forward move on the speed figure scale in each of his five career starts and with further improvement the sophomore ridgeling looks capable of regaining his winning form. Impossible Task exits a series of tougher first-level allowance events, most recently finishing a distant third behind the stakes-quality Defunded, and with this class drop and with numbers that fit the son of Liam’s Map should be a major player. He shows a prior win over the Del Mar main track and has a good stalking/pressing style that should allow for a trouble-free journey. Kattah, first off the claim for S. Callaghan, is protected in a sign of confidence after graduating in a maiden $40,000 affair last month. The son of Honor Code has to prove he’s more than just a late-running sprinter, but his pedigree suggests that two-turns should fit him fine. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver or a backup.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Brandon’smylawyer; 5-Muy Chistosa; 7-Fast Janie
Forecast: Fast Janie recorded the fastest time for a furlong (:09 4/5) at the OBS March Sale, after which she was purchased at the auction for $90,000. There’s nothing significant in the first two generations and the Fast Anna’s generally don’t break the bank at the sale, so all things considered the price was better than expected. She picks up F. Pat for her racing debut, has a decent local gate drill on her resume, and was previously given a good foundation of drills at San Luis Rey Downs to have her plenty fit. Brandon’smylawyer breezed a furlong in :10 flat at the OBS April, displaying quick action and good athleticism, and then brought $340,000 through the ring despite being by an unproven stallion with a modest $7,500 stud fee and from a moderate female family that contained nothing underneath the first dam. The R. Baltas-trained daughter of Astern shows a series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that indicate plenty of talent. Muy Chistosa was somewhat less impressive at that same OBS preview session but still went well enough, breezing a quarter mile in :21 2/5 under mild urging only. The daughter of Practical Joke from the stakes-winning mare Hello Maggie May has looked decent in local drills for J. Mullins and may be worth tossing in on ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 7-Seven Sisters; 9-Taming the Tigress; 10-Kristi’s Tiger
Forecast: Taming the Tigress is lightly raced, improving with each outing, and fresh from a fast, highly-rated demolition of a starter’s allowance field here in late July that if repeated today should allow her to take this class hike in stride. The daughter of Smiling Tiger has an ideal stalking style for this extended sprint distance, and with F. Prat riding her back the P. Miller-trained state-bred filly seems the solid top pick at 5/2 on the morning line. Seven Sisters is another on the rise, having graduated from a maiden $50,000 field earlier this meeting in stylish fashion, though on pure numbers she has work to do to challenge our top selection. This will be just her fourth career starts, so the A. Mathis-trained daughter of Oxbow likely has plenty more to give and should be part of the pace throughout. Kristi’s Tiger failed at 50 cents on the dollar when second in a similar Cal-bred affair in her first start since May. Based on her sharp speed figure two races back she’s a legitimate threat.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Candy On Top; 8-Peppermint Flirt
Forecast: Candy On Top ran a bit better than the line will show when overcoming early trouble to finish willingly to be a distant third in a fast, highly rate and already productive five furlong grass sprint earlier this meeting. The Twirling Candy filly stretches out to a distance that should be well within her range, and from the rail she projects to be on or near the lead throughout. The only concern is that she failed to change leads in her debut; let’s hope she learns to switch over today. Peppermint Flirt, wide without cover most of the way, wound up a non-threatening third in her debut over this course and distance while finishing behind two potential stakes-types. On paper, this looks like an easier assignment, so if the daughter of Texas Ryano produces a forward move, she’ll absolutely be a solid contender. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets with Candy On Top.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Commissioner David; 9-Double the Gold
Forecast: Trainer D. O’Neill holds the aces in this maiden claiming sprint for juveniles. Double the Gold ran quite well vs. maiden $50,000 foes in his debut at Los Alamitos in early July when on the pace until tagged close home, and then was pitched too high vs. straight maidens on grass when forcing the pace and then weakening through the lane to wind up fifth, but with an improved speed figure. Back with sellers today, the Goldencents gelding is cozily drawn outside, switches to F. Prat, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. O’Neill’s other starter is Commissioner David, a fairly quick son of Commissioner who, after stumbling at the start, flashed good speed before fading in a maiden $80,000 affair here last month. With a clean break today he should make the running but is likely to have his stable mate breathing down his neck throughout . We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with preference on top to Double the Gold.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Riding With Dino; 6-El Diablo Rojo
Forecast: Riding With Dino may be the one to beat in this grass dash for California-bred older horses. The son of Vronsky has excellent gate speed, and over a course in which the pace types usually dominate this R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding has a chance to stick around a long time in his second start off a long layoff. With solid on numbers and retaining J. Bravo, the lightly-raced four year old offers excellent wagering value at or near his morning line of 6-1. El Diablo Rojo finished with interest but too late when fourth in a similar first-level allowance state-bred affair over this course and distance last month and seems likely to produce a forward move today in his second start off a layoff while retaining F. Prat. The son of Clubhouse Ride is a prototype late-running sprinter, but over a course that promotes the speed types this C. Lewis-trained gelding will need a good, clean trip to make an impact.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Avisse; 3-Navy Queen; 9-Zahra
Forecast: Fillies and mares at the $16,000 claiming level meet over a mile on the main track in the Thursday nightcap. The last time this group got together, the whole field seemed to finish in a heap, so tread lightly. Zahra moves over to the J. Wong barn and switches to A. Cedillo after finishing a close third over this track and distance last month. A repeat of that race, or her runaway claiming win at Pleasanton two runs back makes her the one to beat. Avisse finished a head in front of Zahra in that common race Aug. 6 and from her good inside draw should inherit a second flight, ground-saving trip and be a major factor from the quarter pole home. She picks up a much stronger rider, K. Frey, though with that luxury comes an additional seven pounds. Navy Queen hasn’t won in nearly two years, but she’s been chasing tougher and should go much better at this level, assuming she can transfer her turf form to dirt. The blinkers-off angle always catches our eye. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but if you can afford to spread deeper, go ahead.
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