Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Single: Censorship
Forecast: Censorship has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for Baffert, a pedigree that suggests she’ll be far more comfortable routing than sprinting, a recent solo six furlong workout in 1:11 flat (galloping out in 1:24 and change) that was nothing short of spectacular. She’s 9/5 on the morning line but is certain to go lower and is a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Rosnequist; 2-Moore Street Wise; 3-Tiz Tact Toe
Forecast: We’ll triple this maiden claiming turf event using the inside three runners while preferring the Churchill Downs shipper Rosenquist on top. Eligible to the valuable ship-and-win purse bonus, the W. Morey-trained gelding makes his first start since early June as a first-time gelding and has numbers back east that makes him a major player in this moderate affair. In the frame in his last two, the son of Uncle Mo projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his inside draw and then have every chance to produce a winning late kick. Tiz Tact Toe earned a good number when runner-up over this course in his local bow earlier this month and today gets an extra furlong to work with. The son of Tourist retains U. Rispoli, and a with a repeat of his last he should be hard to beat. Moore Street Wise, a respectable third in maiden special weight company at Golden Gate Fields in his U.S. debut three weeks ago, has a right to step forward today and make his presence felt from off the pace.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Mr. Dougie Fresh; 7-Awhitesportscoat
Forecast: Awhitesportscoat moves up a notch following a $12,500 S. Knapp claim and is assured of his preferred soft stalking trip from his cozy outside draw. A three-time winner (from five career starts) over the Del Mar main track, the veteran gelding returns after a month’s vacation for a barn that hits at 23% with a significant ROI with the first-off-the-claim angle. Mr. Dougie Fresh was overmatched in first-level allowance company and was a well-beaten sixth of seven but drops a level below his $20,000 purchase price and seems very likely to snap back to good form. The presence of F. Prat is positive, and the P. Miller-trained gelding should have enough early speed to use his rail post to good advantage. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with a slight preference on top to Awhitesportscoat.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Trebbiano; 5-Anmer Hall; 6-Law Abiding
Forecast: Since none of these juveniles have ever set foot on a turf course, we’re largely guessing as to which, if any, will perform better than their dirt works. We can make an educated guess based on pedigree, but not much more than that. Trebbiano has the benefit of three prior runs, and while he appears to be somewhat faint-hearted under pressure the son of Connect should be quick enough to make the lead over a course that generally promotes the speed types. He’s eligible for the valuable ship and win purse bonus, so you know they’re trying. Anmer Hall has looked okay-to-decent in the a.m. and should be plenty fit for the always-potent P. Miller/Flavian Prat combo. We can’t say he’s bred for turf but at this shortened trip he should have enough early speed to be dangerous. Law Abiding has been doing all of his preparation out of sight at San Luis Rey Downs, but we did see him breeze at the OBS April sale. He was somewhat green while wanting to lean in but otherwise appeared to have plenty of talent while being clocked in a quick 21 1/5 seconds. At 5-1 on the morning line, we’ll toss him in. We’ll try to get by using just these three but if you have the budget to spread deeper, go right ahead.
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Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Tribal War Chant
Forecast: Tribal War Chant exits a much stronger starter’s allowance $50,000 sprint – a race he had a right to need – and in his second start off a long layoff he should find this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seller well within his capabilities. Just 1-for-16 in his career and certainly not one to trust, the son of Tiznow nevertheless appears to be a solid top choice based on speed figures, a healthy activity pattern, and this stretch out to seven furlongs, a distance that should complement his stalking style. At 3-1 on the morning line, he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Heart My Prayer; 7-Bulletproof One
Forecast: Bulletproof One displayed her old speed in the Daisycutter H. over this course and distance last month, but in her first outing in 10 months she weakened in the closing stages to wind up third, beaten just over a length. With that effort underneath her, the P. Miller-trained filly should be fitter, tighter, and difficult to catch in this three-other-than grass dash for fillies and mares. The one to fear most is the Florida stakes winning shipper Hear My Prayer. Now in the V. Cerin barn, the daughter of The Big Beast has won four of nine starts, is fast on figures, and projects to stalk Bulletproof One to the head of the lane and then set her sights on catching her. Also, she’s run three times off layoffs and won every time. We’ll prefer Bulletproof One on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Wilson Monk; 5-Fly the Sky
Forecast: Fly the Sky might be most comfortable as a turf sprinter and today he’ll be asked to run a mile on dirt. That said, the S. Miyadi-trained gelding finished second over this track and distance in an allowance race two years ago, so he can do it when he’s in form, and after winning a similar state-bred affair last time going short he should be able to duplicate that type of performance under these conditions. Wilson Monk stretches out for the first time in his first outing since March. He won his debut, so we know he can fire fresh but what we don’t know is whether he’s just a late-running sprinter or one that will handle the two-turn trip. In a difficult affair, we’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotics with the edge on top to Fly the Sky.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade:
Use: 3-Majestic St eps; 4-Lady Emily; 9-Chasingserendipity
Forecast: The finale is a $50,000 claiming grass router restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Chasingserendipity must overcome her extreme outside draw in her first outing since being claimed by V. Garcia, but if she can manage to get over and find a slot before the field hits the first turn the daughter of Vancouver should be in an excellent position to regain her winning form. She’s produced a forward move according to her speed figures in each of her five career starts, and after finishing a solid third in a $40,000 claimer over this course and distance last month we’re hoping she can step forward and handle this slightly tougher assignment. Lady Emily, overmatched in a competitive first-level allowance race in her local bow last month, takes a realistic class drop, switches to U. Rispoli, and has a huge look off her spring Gulfstream Park form. She’ll get the patient ride she wants from U. Rispoli, and with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase the M. Maker-trained daughter of First Dude will have a legitimate chance to tag the speed. Majestic Steps has finished off the board in six of the seven races since her maiden score in her U.S. debut in January. She’s been chasing much tougher and is still trying to find her proper level. With the switch to F. Prat, she may finally have found it.
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