Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Big Mama Sue; 2-Taming the Tigress; 6-Big Clare
Forecast: The Sunday opener matches state-bred fillies and mares who are quite familiar with each other. There’s very little to separate the three listed above, so in a race that we’re not planning to play, all three should be used in rolling exotic play. Based on today’s nine furlong trip, we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Big Clare, a one-paced grinding type whose best career effort – a runner-up performance two races back – was accomplished at this nine furlong distance. F. Prat rode the P. D’Amato-trained filly on that occasion and is back aboard today, so at 5/2 on the morning line she may be the one that deserves the closest look.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Today’s Flavor
Forecast: Today’s Flavor is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this main track miler, but we have a hard time believing he won’t be odds-on. An excellent runner-up in his recent comeback in a fast, highly-rated sprint, the son of Laoban stretches out to a distance he’s bred to enjoy and projects to be the controlling speed, though if Vetoed is committed to the front end the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be able to draft in behind him and bide his time. If he winds up being too short on the tote, you can at least use him as a short-priced, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Optimizing; 3-Derecho Dandy; 9-Get Back Goldie; 10-Verbal
Forecast: As is typical for a two-year-old turf stakes race this time of year, the Cecil B. DeMille S.-G3 brings together a number of highly-regarded prospects that are at various stages of development. What you see in the past performance charts may not be what you get, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play while hoping to get a price horse home. Verbal won his debut over a mile on grass at Belmont Park last month in stylish fashion, settling off the pace and then easily taking control when given his cue. The son of Flintshire should have plenty of pace today to compliment his closing style, so under the assumption that he’ll move forward with that bit of experience behind him the C. Brown-trained colt logically deserves top billing. Optimising, a good second in the Qatar Golden Mile S. over this course and distance three weeks ago, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from his favorable rail draw and should have every chance if good enough. Derecho Dandy graduated cleverly in his first grass try last month, and though able to make the running in that race before kicking home, the son of Connect strikes us as one that can be taken back if the pace flow dictates. Get Back Goldie earned a big figure when graduating as much best at this distance on grass at Santa Anita but did so in a maiden $50,000 claiming affair. Clearly, this is a much more difficult spot but based strictly on numbers he’s got a chance, so we’ll toss him in.
Notable Workouts:
Derecho Dandy (November 21, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B-
Steady, even-keeled solo training track drill for Sadler, splits of :24.2, :36.3 and 1:01.1, niggled at a bit through the lane but never really asked. Improving with racing, doesn’t have a great turn of foot but should improve as the distances increase.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Got Thunder; 5-Newgrange
Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint six furlongs in a field that includes two very highly-regarded first time starters. Got Thunder is a strong, powerful colt with plenty of natural talent, though we suspect he’ll eventually do his best work over a distance of ground. The J. Sadler-trained son of Arrogate, a half-brother to the multiple Grade-1 stakes winning turf miler Heart to Heart, brought $750,000 in the OBS April Sale, where he previewed in 10 seconds flat, and has displayed enough early speed and athleticism in local morning drills to be extremely competitive sprinting on dirt. Newgrange, a debuting son of Violence trained by B. Baffert, is another that has caught the eye in workouts and seems fit, ready, and extremely talented. There are others in the field that can run as well, but these are the two that stick out and both should be included in rolling exotic play, with a very slight edge on top to Got Thunder.
Notable Workouts:
Got Thunder (November 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4hg). Grade: B+
Wasn’t particularly quick leaving the gate but displayed good speed once in motion while in company with older stable mate Southern Horse (5f, 1:00hg) for J. Sadler, never really asked much while clearly best with splits of :24.2, :47.4 and 1:00.1 on our watches, a couple of ticks slower than given but nice nonetheless, then galloped to the wire in 1:14.3. Plenty of ability, strikes us as a colt who will eventually show his best with experience and distance.
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Newgrange (November 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: B+
Very impressive gate drill for B. Baffert while even but best with Montebello (same time), splits of :24.2, :35.4 :47 flat and :59.3 while galloping out five furlongs and then up at the wire in 1:13.2. Colt by Violence looks like a real prospect and seems plenty fit.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dancing Rinca; 3-Shut Up Michael; 8-Crosby Beach
Forecast: Maiden juveniles compete over a mile on grass in what appears to be a below average race for the level. Time will tell. Shut Up Michael makes his U.S. debut for trainer P. D’Amato (powerful stats with Euro shippers) and the gelded son of Galileo displayed enough ability in his only outing overseas to indicate he’s good enough to be a major player against this group. A series of solid workouts on dirt since arriving in the West should have him plenty fit, so at 4-1 on the morning line he looks as good as any and better than most. Dancing Rinca has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out angle and a bullet five furlong workout (:59.2h) since raced to make him quite dangerous, especially from his good rail post position. The son of Practical Joke exits a pair of very tough races and should find this bunch within his range. Crosby Beach needed the outing when a non-threatening fifth, beaten less than five lengths, in his debut at Santa Anita over this trip and surface. Second-time starting maidens from the M. McCarthy barn usually improve and we’re expecting this son of Gormley to do as well. He’s trained forwardly since raced and lands J. Ortiz, so at 8-1 on the morning line he looks intriguing.
Notable Workouts:
Crosby Beach (November 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B
Very nice drill without being asked to prove clearly best over Piroli (5f, 1:00.4h) in main track team drill for M. McCarthy, splits of :23.4, :35.3 and 1:00.3, plenty left late. Seems certain to improve after having a race under his belt.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Cosmo; 5-Big Scott Daddy
Forecast: Cosmo has never been big on winning – he’s 1-for-15 – but in his first start following a $32,000 claim by D. O’Neill, the four year old gelding may be ready for a breakthrough performance. A bullet workout (5f, 1:00.3h) over the Santa Anita training track earlier this month seems significant, his one prior dirt track race (a distant third in the Los Alamitos Derby-G3 behind Uncle Chuck) wasn’t that bad, and his recent numbers are superior to par for this starter’s allowance main track miler. With Johnny V. taking the call and at 5/2 on the morning line, the son of Distorted Humor appears to have found his proper spot. Big Scott Daddy is worth including on your ticket as well. Third in his last pair, the son of Scat Daddy stretches out in his fourth outing following a long layoff, retains F. Prat, and has several back numbers that make him dangerous.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Viadera; 6-Regal Glory
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Matriarch S.-G2 drew just six entrants, topped by a pair of Eastern shippers from the C. Brown barn. Regal Glory, first or second in 12 of 15 career outings (including eight wins), most recently finished an excellent runner-up in the First Lady S.-G1 at Keeneland in a performance that produced a career top (103) Beyer speed figure. Regular pilot J. Ortiz most likely will have her settled just off what projects to be a modest pace and then have every opportunity when the pressure is turned on. Brown’s other entrant, Viadera, won this race last year, though she may not quite as sharp now as then. Still, over a course she clearly likes, the English-bred mare has a legitimate look in her first start under turf master F. Prat.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C
Use: 4-Fowler Blue; 6-Heaven’s Music; 8-Indio Mo Mo
Forecast: This maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles is a treacherous affair with nothing to trust. Those that project to be well-backed on the tote have holes in their past performance charts, but the long shots have nothing to offer. Tread lightly. Fowler Blue is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite by default. He’s a first-time gelding dropping into a seller for the first time and receiving a break in the weights with the switch to competent bug boy D. Herrera, so there are three positive angles that are apparent to the handicapper. Last spring, he was fairly well regarded but never followed through; perhaps he’ll be better this time around, especially against this softer competition. Heaven’s Music and Indio Mo Mo, two-three finishers in a similar affair here earlier this month, should be in the battle once again. The former, a beaten odds-on favorite in that race, removes blinkers and figures to be prominent throughout, while the latter is a second time starter from a barn that is currently mired in a zero-for-34 streak with this angle (ugh!), but he did close a gap through the lane in his debut while giving hope that he’ll appreciate today’s extra half-furlong.
Notable Workouts:
Fowler Blue (November 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, chirped to and ridden through the lane, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :36.4 for Mendez. Not bad but needs a drop into the maiden claiming ranks this time around.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Charges Dropped; 7-Tony Ann
Forecast: The finale is a first-level allowance turf event over nine furlongs for fillies and mares that offers a full field of 12. There are two logical main contenders. Tony Ann was visually impressive graduating in her third career start last month at Santa Anita, winning a grass sprint with complete authority while earning a powerful speed figure that is better than par even for this tougher level. In addition to stepping up in class, she’s being asked to try her luck over a distance of ground, so the task won’t be easy, but the daughter of Cairo Prince has improved dramatically in each of her three career starts, so another forward move hardly would be surprising. She projects to be the controlling speed or at the worst a strong pace presser. Charges Dropped is a Midwest invader with some ability and the one to fear most. In the frame in her last two starts, most recently at Keeneland when earning a career top number, the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid attracts J. Ortiz, is comfortably drawn inside, and is likely to inherit a lovely ground-saving, stalking trip and have every chance from there.
Notable Workouts:
Charges Dropped (November 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 101.3h). Grade: B
Caught her from the half mile pole to the seven furlong pole inside and slightly best with Global Brand (same time), splits of :23.4, :48.3 and 1:01.4, easy early, light coaxing late. Seems in good shape, clearly prefers turf.
View Workout Video
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