Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Li Mu Bai; 4-Gregory’s Pride; 10-Appreciated
Forecast: The Saturday opener is a challenging first-level allowance optional claiming turf miler with lots of possibilities. Let’s shoot for a price. Li Mu Bai, listed at 10-1 on the morning line, makes his U.S. debut for R. Baltas and shows a bullet five furlong main track drill (58 4/5 seconds) earlier this month that catches the eye. Just before being imported, the Irish invader earned a career-top Timeform rating when pulling off a 9-1 upset in a 15-runner handicap at Navan in August, overcoming traffic trouble to produce a good turn of foot to win in good style. He’ll race with blinkers and Lasix for the first time and will be piloted by V. Espinoza, who has gotten some live calls from this barn of late. Gregory’s Pride stretches out for the first time and has the pedigree to handle the trip. His numbers are gradually rising, and in a field lacking in early speed the son of Tamarkuz projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead. He’ll need to produce another forward move to win but with just six career starts the P. D’Amato-trained gelding could have plenty more to give. Additionally, the barn’s “go-to” rider U. Rispoli (35% this meeting) takes the call. Appreciated is hung out much wider than we’d prefer from the 10-hole, but the D. O’Neill-trained gelding is in good form and will be dangerous if he can get over before the clubhouse turn to avoid losing ground. The son of Acclamation is a versatile type and has shown he can be tough on the front end or from a mid-pack early position.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Little Miss Ellie; 5-With This Vow
Forecast: With This Vow has trained like she’s fit and ready for her first start in 15 months and in a sign of confidence returns protected in this starter’s allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares. The barn has had a slow year, but this daughter of Broken Vow is good enough to win with anything close to her best stuff and should enjoy a pristine trip from her cozy outside draw. Little Miss Ellie deserves strong consideration as well, though her morning line of 6/5 seems a little short. She was three lengths clear of the rest when second vs. similar at Santa Anita last month and a repeat of that race today makes her a major player.
Notable Workouts:
With This Vow (November 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.1h). Grade: B
Solo six furlong drill on the comeback trail for R. Ellis, slow early but strong late, splits of :26.2, :38.2 :49.4 and 1:14.1, ridden a bit through the lane while responding well enough. Off the track since August of 2020 but is returning in good health and seems fairly fit. Has starter’s allowance conditions.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lucky Girl; 3-Sterling Crest; 5-Duvet Day; 8-Annie’s Song
Forecast: This grass grab bag for maiden juvenile fillies over a mile requires as much coverage in rolling exotic play as your budget allows. Annie’s Song, in the frame when facing much tougher winners at Newmarket in her two most recent outings prior to importation, has looked quite good in the a.m. for M. Glatt, and with F. Prat taking the call looks extremely well-meant in her U.S. debut. She displayed improvement in each of her four starts overseas and should be ready to pick up where she left off, so at 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll put her on top. Sterling Crest appears the one to fear most. A strong runner-up in her debut before finishing a respectable fourth in the Surfer Girl S. at Santa Anita, the R. Baltas-trained filly returns to the maiden ranks, sports a steady, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs, and retains U. Rispoli. Lucky Girl ran below expectations when a non-threatening seventh in her U.S. bow last month but picks up Johnny V., lands the good rail and has worked well in the interim, so she’ll have no excuses today. Duvet Day, second in both of her starts in Ireland, is yet another foreigner with credentials to be competitive. With J. Ortiz taking the call for M. McCarthy, the daughter of Starspangledbanner is worth using somewhere on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
Duvet Day (November 20, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h). Grade: B-
Mostly on her own while even but a tad the best with Girl Ranger (same time) for M. McCarthy, final three furlongs in :12.1 and :37.1. Showed some ability in a pair of outings last summer in Ireland and may be a useful type of maiden juvenile filly on this circuit. Probably prefers turf.
View Workout Video
Annie’s Song (November 22, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h TT). Grade: B
Worked outside Cuban Crisis (same time) in training track drill for M. Glatt and was a bit the best without urging, final three furlongs in a solid :35.4 (may have gone a bit faster than official clocking). Seems to have some ability, placed in good company in England and should be extremely live vs. maidens when making her U.S. debut.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Miss Alegria; 5-Dozo
Forecast: Dozo was a voided claim when winning a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint at Santa Anta last month, so she was returned to the S. Knapp barn and recently looked quite sharp in a half mile drill (47 2/5 seconds, fourth fastest of 47) that should have her ready for another good effort. A winner of three races from just seven career starts, the daughter of Coil may have her issues, but she knows where the wire is and projects to be the controlling speed in a race that is likely to produce soft early fractions. Class-dropper Miss Alegria switches to F. Prat and has previous speed figures that put her squarely in the hunt. At 9/5 on the morning line, the P. Miller-trained daughter of Munnings is the likely choice and one to beat.
Notable Workouts:
Dozo (November 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h). Grade: B
Was a voided claim last time out but looked fine here in solo half mile main track drill for S. Knapp, splits of :23 flat and :47.3 on our watches, mild urging only. Should be set for a good effort based on this move.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Flop Shot; 7-Sacred Life
Forecast: C. Brown holds the aces in this year’s renewal of the Seabiscuit S.-G3 over a middle distance on grass for older runners. Stable mates Sacred Life and Flop Shot both have credentials to win, with ‘Life listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite. The French-bred veteran captured the Knickerbocker S.-G3 at Belmont Park last month with a strong late surge and nothing more will be needed today for a repeat score. First or second in 14 of 21 career starts, he’s always been thoroughly genuine and consistent. Flop Shot was a Group-3 stakes winner in France in his younger days and appears to be rounding back to top form, although still seeking his first victory in the States. He’ll race without blinkers while retaining I. Ortiz, Jr. and likely will receive the patient ride he prefers. Sacred Life gets top billing, but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Awesome Taylor; 6-Youteyourhonor
Forecast: Awesome Taylor is a maiden tackling winners, but she earned a speed figure in her debut when a close runner-up that far exceeds the competition in this starter optional claimer for juvenile fillies. The P. Miller-trained daughter of Classic Empire switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and should improve a ton with that race under her belt and today’s extra furlong to work with. There’s value here at 2-1 on the morning line, though we suspect she’ll go lower. Youteyourhonor probably is worth including as protection on a ticket or two. Much slower on numbers than our top pick but adding blinkers and landing the cozy outside draw, the daughter of Danzing Candy seems certain to improve; the question is how much?
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Awake At Midnyte; 3-Tezzaray; 11-Helens Well
Forecast: Awake At Midnyte was a visually pleasing winner in her debut sprinting on dirt at Santa Anita last month and today moves into stakes competition, stretches out to a mile, and switches to grass. She appears to be a decent sort of filly but certainly will have to be in order to take this much more difficult task in stride. A good-moving, athletic daughter of Nyquist, the D. O’Neill-trained juvenile could inherit the role as the controlling speed from her favorable rail post position and given that type of trip could take this field a very long way. At 10-1 on the morning line, she offers a reasonable gamble. After displaying some quality in a pair of third place finishers in England during the summer, Tezzaway uncorked a strong late kick when winning a representative maiden race over this course and distance in her U.S. debut. The P. Miller-trained daughter of Bated Breath retains I. Ortiz, Jr., and with some help up front she should make her presence felt in the final furlong. Helens Well is poorly drawn in the 11-hole and likely will face a stiff task from the quarter pole home. The late-running Irish-bred filly was beaten less than three lengths over the local lawn when eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-G1 earlier this month and clearly is facing an easier group today. Toss her in.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-California Street; 4-Teton Valley; 6-Escape Route; 10-Sumo
Forecast: Sumo ran a winning race at this level earlier this month when pressing a blazing pace, striking the front entering the stretch but then getting worn down late by stable mate Triple Tap in a fast, highly-rated affair. Purchased for $700,00 at the 2020 OBS April Sale, the son of Not This Time remains well-regarded by his connections and looks ready to get back on the winning track with the switch to F. Prat from a comfortable outside draw in this extended sprint that came up unusually deep and contentious. We’ll stick with the B. Baffert-trained colt on top but include a few back-ups just in case. Escape Route is extremely fast on numbers and missed in a photo at this condition last month at Santa Anita in a career top effort. He’s trained well since and very likely has another forward move or two in him. Teton Valley improved a ton in his first start since being claimed for $20,000 two races back when toying with a starter’s allowance field last month by five lengths while earning a Beyer number (95) that actually exceeds Sumo’s last figure by three points. This is a far deeper and more difficult affair but who knows how good this Tapiture gelding will become? California Street has won his last three starts impressively but against lesser foes. If they go too fast too early, the P. Miller-trained gelding could produce a dangerous late kick.
Notable Workouts:
Teton Valley (November 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B-
Easy to the top and then was urged through the lane, decent response, final three furlongs in :36 flat. Maintains his form, comes off sizzling win and should get tested on the raise.
View Workout Video
Sumo (November 17, Santa Anita, 4f, :49h). Grade: B
Finished a neck in front of Varda (same time) while under stout restraint much of the way, quite sharp in easy breeze for B. Baffert. Strong colt, a $700,000 OBS April purchase, has plenty of improvement in him, still has a chance to be a decent type of colt.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Caithkin Peak; 6-Public Sector;12-Subconscious
Forecast: Public Sector has won four of his last five starts, each with a stronger Beyer speed figure than his previous race, so we’re expecting the C. Brown-trained colt to produce another major effort in this year’s edition of the Hollywood Derby-G1. A winner of three consecutive graded stakes races in New York, the son of Kingman has good tactical speed and a knack to do just what’s required from the furlong pole to the wire. Turf specialists form the East always seem to do well in California and we suspect this English-bred colt will do the same. Subconscious and Caithkin Peak look like the two best among the local contingent, though the former is drawn farther out in the 12-hole than is ideal. Himself a winner of three straight, including the Twilight Derby-G2 at Santa Anita, the rapidly-developing son of Tapit has a good stalking style that usually produces a clean trip. On pure numbers, he’s actually a point or two better than Public Sector, so there’s that. ‘Peak can turn it on late and switches to F. Prat, so after finishing a close second in the Twilight Derby the Irish-bred gelding won’t have to improve too much to get his first stakes victory since last winter.
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