Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Morning Addiction; 6-Flat Out Joy
Forecast: The opener is a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares that offers little to work with. Flat Out Joy earned a speed figure two races back that would easily win this race, and with a warranted class drop to her cheapest level ever the R. Ellis-trained mare seems the logical top pick. She also makes a positive jockey switch to A. Cedillo and projects to be the controlling speed, so we like her on top despite coming from a barn that is just 1-for-38 this year. Morning Addiction is “raised” from $20,000 but is “dropping” from a non-winners of three, so theoretically this is an easier field than she faced when finishing third in her comeback last month at Santa Anita. The lightly-raced daughter of Carpe Diem earned a career top speed figure in that outing (better than par for this level) so if she can extract herself from the rail in this elongated sprint she should have every chance. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Flat Out Joy.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade:
Single: 4-Scotish Star
Forecast: Scotish Star is an unbeaten import from Argentina, where she followed a seven-length debut maiden win over five furlongs with a victory in a Grade-1 main track miler for 3-year-old fillies by that same margin. The Grade One stakes designation notwithstanding, she really didn’t beat much in that race, so it’s difficult to accurately classify her abilities, but she has received a solid foundation to be fit and ready for her first race since October and the works indicate considerable quality. Listed at 9/5 on the morning line but likely to go lower in a field that appears below par for the level, the R. Mandella-trained filly can be used as a no-value rolling exotic single and in the win pool if she doesn’t get hammered too hard on the tote.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Seven Sisters; 4-Babe’s Got Appeal; 10-So Very Smart
Forecast: So Very Smart projects to be perfectly situated outside the leaders in this abbreviated sprint for maiden $50,000 state-bred fillies and mares and should make the most of what has all the makings of a golden trip. The D. O’Neill-trained filly sports the route-to-sprint, turf-to-dirt, maiden to maiden claiming angles, so at 8-1 on the morning line we’ll expect her best effort in her second start following a claim. Babe’s Got Appeal displayed good speed in a solo gate work over the local main track earlier this month (5f, 1:00.4hg with blinkers) in a move that should make her the one to fear most. The barn has good stats with first-time starters, so at this abbreviated sprint trip the daughter of Kafwain is intriguing at 4-1 on the morning line. Seven Sisters, in the frame in her first two career starts when facing maiden special weight foes up north, adds blinkers after flashing speed but weakening late at even money at Pleasanton last month. Maybe she’ll improve at this level at this trip, though apparently, she’s not one to trust. You can toss her in as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Red Storm Risen; 6-First Premio
Forecast: Midwest invader First Premio is dropping in his first start off the claim by J. Mullins from $62,500 to $40,000 and that’s not normally a healthy sign but considering today’s purse ($72,000) and the available ship-and-win bonus money this might be a case of simply trying to steal a purse. The ex-classer is reunited with U. Rispoli, who won on him two races back at Churchill Downs, and in a race that seems likely to have a decent amount of speed signed on, the 7-year-old deep closer may be able produce the last run. Red Storm Risen is another seeking that bonus money after shipping in from Belmont Park. Freshened since May but looking sharp in the a.m. for P. D’Amato, the son of Stormy Atlantic isn’t as fast on numbers as First Premio but is relatively lightly raced (just 10 starts) and probably has room to improve for his new connections. He should enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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Del Mar Race 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Madame Barbarian
Forecast: Old pro Madam Barbarian, a winner of 13 races from 79 starts to go along with 24 other placings, should be able to find a way to win this $10,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Beaten at odds-on when third two races back but then performing much better in a highly rated race when third again at 17-1 in a turf sprint vs. tougher last month, the J. Mullins-trained mare shows a prior win over the Del Mar main track while hitting the board in her two other starts, so she looks to have found a proper spot to regain her winning form. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go a bit lower, she may not offer a whole lot of wagering value. You can use her in the rolling exotics and a possible single or simply sit out the race.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Chasingserendipity; 3-Cecile’s Chapter; 9-American Bourbon
Forecast: This $40,000 claiming turf miler restricted to 3-year-olds requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Chasingserendipity, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, seeks her third straight win after a couple of sharp grass performances at Golden Gate fields, a maiden $20,000 score in early May followed by a nice starter’s allowance tally with a career top speed figure in early June. Originally claimed for $15,000 and remaining well-above that price today, the J. Wong-trained daughter of Vancouver employs an ideal second flight, stalking style, lands a good inside post, and seems spotted for another major effort. Wong’s other entrant, American Bourbon, is another Golden Gate shipper with excellent recent grass form and attracts F. Prat. She must leave from the far outside post but has good early speed and could easily get over and secure a comfortable pace stalking position before the field hits the first turn. A versatile type, she can be tough on the lead but has shown the ability to stalk and pounce as well. Cecile’s Chapter, runner-up in her last pair at Churchill Downs, fit well on speed figures on this circuit at this level for M. Maker, who has won with a couple of Midwest shippers during the early part of the season and has another live one here. The daughter of Cairo Prince will be doing her best work late.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Lucky Peridot; 3-Lady Mystify
Forecast: Lady Mystify broke her maiden by 18 lengths at Santa Anita in February in her first try around two turns but then disappeared. Included in a recent installment of our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list, she returns on the one-level raise with a series of workouts that indicate she’s just as good now as before, perhaps even better, so let’s go with the lightly-raced, promising daughter of Bernardini on top in this main track miler for fillies and mares. Lucky Peridot also is coming off a win, hers coming less than a month ago at Los Alamitos in a performance that earned a better Beyer speed figure (78) than the one assigned to Lady Mystify’s winning race (69). Lucky Peridot, though, is a five-year-old mare with less potential than her 3-year-old rival but considering the speed figure discrepancy and her attractive morning line (4-1), she’s worth including on your ticket as well.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Over Attracted; 8-Brilliant and Yoo
Forecast: Brilliant and You moves up a notch for new trainer R. Ellis following a third-place finish as the 6/5 favorite in a $25,000 claiming grass miler at Santa Anita last month, a race in which she really had no excuses. However, thanks to the always-popular blinkers off angle, the daughter of Include has a right to improve, and in a field lacking pace she might inherit the role as the controlling speed. U. Rispoli stays aboard and knows her well. Over Attracted drops into a seller for the first time and at this level the J. Sadler-trained filly may improve enough to pose a threat. Her grass record (winless in 10 starts) hardly inspires confidence, but she has numbers that make her dangerous and she projects to settle into a second flight early position and then have her chance to grind away.
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