The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
SANTA ANITA
Saturday, September 30, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bitter Ring Home; 3-Impeachableoffense; 10-Pubilius Syrus
Forecast: Maiden juveniles meet over a mile in a typical grass grab bag to kick off the Saturday program. Pubilius Syrus was a respectable fourth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf while earning a career top speed figure and with this return to the maiden ranks the son of Candy Ride looks well-spotted for a major effort. He’s the likely choice and one to beat. Impeachableoffense flashed speed before weakening in his debut sprinting on dirt in a hot race (winner Bolt d’Oro came back to take the Del Mar Futurity) and seems certain to improve while stretching out to a distance he’s bred to like. A bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs since that race is a positive factor, and at 12-1 on the morning line the son of Orb certainly warrants a strong price chance. Bitter Ring Home was given a race in his debut – he was always far back and never really asked – and should be much more serious today with the switch to Talamo and the addition of blinkers. Drysdale’s maidens almost always improve in their second start and we’re expecting this son of Lemon Drop Kid to do the same.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Supreme Venture; 7-Bolster
Forecast: Supreme Venture didn’t break well when off the board at 6/5 in a similar starter’s allowance race at Del Mar last month but remains protected by Miller so we’re going to give him another chance. The Forestry gelding broke his maiden over this track and the number he earned when a close fourth vs. tougher two runs back beats this field. Bolster wired a modest maiden claiming field at Del Mar after getting loose on the lead and if he can clear again he might get brave right back. Drawn comfortably outside, the Benchmark gelding should have every chance to dictate the race.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Instilled Regard; 10-Mourinho
Forecast: Mourinho breezed a furlong in 20 1/5 seconds – the fastest at the OBS March Sale and the one of the fastest ever recorded at any 2-year-old in training sale – and then brought $625,000 at the auction. The son of Super Saver debuts for Baffert in a decent but not great straight maiden affair and should be plenty fit to win at first asking. There’s value here at 9/2 on the morning line if you can get it. The logical favorite is Instilled Regard, a $1.05 million buy at that same March sale and a promising runner-up to American Pharoah’s full brother St Patrick’s Day at Del Mar earlier this month. However, the son of Arch doesn’t strike us a particularly quick colt and is shortening up a half-furlong today. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Mourinho on top.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Big Buzz; 8-Pitching
Forecast: This is a split of the first race, a maiden turf miler for juveniles. Big Buzz produced a significant forward move between his first and second start when finishing a willing fifth (beaten less than two lengths) in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf and, similar to the pattern owned by Pubilius Syrus in the first race, returns to the maiden ranks in search of his diploma. With Bejarano staying aboard we’re expecting this Yakteen-trained colt to be along in time. Pitching displayed ability in his California debut when a solid third to subsequent stakes winner Encumbered in late July at Del Mar. The Scat Daddy gelding is a progressive sort and should continue his improving pattern today. We’ll give the edge on top to Big Buzz but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Faithfully; 4-Paradise Woods
Forecast: Faithfully missed as the odds-on choice in the Tranquility Lake Stakes at Del Mar when going down by less than a length to Shenandoah Queen but has trained as well as ever since shipping back to Santa Anita. We’re expecting that she’ll run back to her impressive score in the Santa Lucia Stakes over this track and distance in June. Paradise Woods earned a monster number when destroying a field that included Abel Tasman in the Santa Anita Oaks in the spring but didn’t come close to running back to that performance in two subsequent outings. She continues to impress in the morning for Mandella and this return to Santa Anita could bring out the best in the daughter of Union Rags. We regard Faithfully as the more reliable of the two so we’ll put her on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Troublewithatee; 8-Kencumin
Forecast: Kencumin was victimized by a lack of pace and could make only minor headway into the teeth of the race shape when fourth in his U.S debut at Del Mar last month. The French-bred colt gets an extra furlong to work with today, retains Bejarano, and should produce a significant forward move, just as he did in his second career start in England prior to his importation. Troublewithatee graduated in his eighth lifetime start at Del Mar last time out and did so with a career top number. Clearly most effective on turf, the son of Into Mischief retains Nakatani and is another who should greatly appreciate this nine furlong trip. We’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Kencumin.
RACE 7: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Alluring Star; 3-Moonshine Memories
Forecast: Moonshine Memories broke her maiden at first asking like a future star and then verified that favorable impression by returning in less than two weeks to take the Del Mar Debutante. She tries two turns today but the added distance shouldn’t be a problem based on her two workouts since the Debutante. Alluring Star seems like the logical pacesetter (with Moonshine Memories inheriting a stalking position) and the Baffert-trained filly, a smart debut winner with a big figure at Del Mar earlier this month, could be tough to catch if not pressured early. Worth noting is that the daughter of Exchange Rate earned the identical Beyer speed figure (82) in her maiden win as Moonshine Memories did when capturing the Debutante. Let’s use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Bolt d’Oro; 8-Solomini
Forecast: Similar to Moonshine Memories in the Chandelier Stakes, Bolt d’Oro followed an impressive maiden win with a Grade-1 score at Del Mar, capturing the Del Mar Futurity in strong fashion with a legitimate speed figure. As a son of Medaglia d’Oro, he’s highly likely to continue to improve with experience and distance and is clearly the one to beat. Solomini won at fist asking like a smart colt and he, too, is bred to relish the extra ground. The son of Curlin has impressed in the morning since that early September maiden score, retains Prat, and may have as much upside as any colt in the field. Let’s prefer Bolt d’Oro on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Decked Out; 10-Goodyearforroses
Forecast: Goodyearforroses ran Lady Eli to a neck over this course in the Gamely S. –G1 two races back and then likely was best when finishing strongest but too late to be second in the Mabee S. –G2 at Del Mar earlier this month. She’s drawn farther out than we’d prefer in this 10-furlong affair, but if she can manage to save some ground early and then get clear sailing late the Baltas-trained mare should be able to producing a winning late kick. Decked Out may have been a short horse when weakening to fifth in the Mabee in what was her first start of the year; she’ll be fitter and tougher today and seems most effective when taken back and allowed to produce one late run. Two recent bullet workouts over the Santa Anita training track earlier this month are most encouraging.
RACE 10: Post 5:05 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Mubtaahij; 8-Cupid
Forecast: Baffert holds the aces in the Awesome Again S. –G1 with Cupid and Mubtaahij the logical top contenders. Cupid won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June in very impressive style, got sick, and then returned to win the listed Brubaker S. last month at Del Mar despite not turning in his best performance. He’s trained sharply since, so we’re expecting to see the son of Tapit return to his top form, which should be good enough to win. If not, Mubtaahij, in his first start for Baffert, could easily win and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. An earner of more than $4.3 million during his career, the Irish-bred 5-year-olds will race with blinkers for the first time and has looked fit and ready in the morning for a huge effort in his first out since finishing a distant fourth to Arrogate and Gun Runner in the Dubai World Cup in March. You have to go back to his U.A. Derby win two and one-half years ago find his last victory, but even so his credentials are strong.
RACE 11: Post 5:36 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Tapped; 6-Noted and Quoted; 10-Kathy’s Song; 11-Miss Southern Miss
Forecast: This downhill slalom affair has several contenders, so rolling exotic players may want to use as many as they can afford to. Small ticket player should consider Miss Southern Miss as a possible single. She’s shown the ability to fire fresh (she won her debut) and she’s a perfect one-for-one lifetime on turf, having won the Surfer Girl Stakes over the Santa Anita lawn in an a absolute breeze as a 2-yar-old. She’s trained like she’s fit and ready for the Desormeaux brothers and with good racing luck should display a devastating late kick. Tapped, arguably most effective as a late-running turf sprinter, makes her first start for Baltas and should employ similar tactics to Miss Southern Miss. With clear sailing, she’ll be heard from late. Kathy’s Song will be sprinting for the first time in her career and there’s no reason she won’t enjoy the turn back in trip. The daughter of Candy Ride earned a career top figure in a strong allowance win two-turning at Del Mar in early September and owns a stalking style that should be very effective under these conditions. Noted and Quoted will be making her first start on grass – she trained very well over the Del Mar lawn when being given a test run – and is good enough to contend with her best effort.
