The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Saturday, September 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Golden Atlantic; 5-Have Some Pride; 11-First to the Wire
Forecast: Have Some Pride is a first-off-the-claim for Morey (20%) and may not have to improve much off his runner-up effort vs. similar last month to handle this field. He has early speed but doesn’t strike us as a need-the-lead type. Golden Atlantic was a beaten choice last trip when failing to see out six and one-half furlongs; today he shortens up a furlong and should stick better. First to the Wire has been routing much of his career but could be a late threat at a big price with the drop back in trip.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Majestic Authority; 8-Rag Top
Forecast: Rag Top has trained like a nice sort for Baffert and although it’s difficult to win first time out when routing from an outside post, this daughter of Union Rags might be good enough to pull it off against a moderate field. Majestic Authority has the benefit of a solid sprint effort underneath her and should be prominent throughout from her inside post. We’ll try to get by using just these two.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Joe’sgoldenholiday; 7-Spin Me a Kiss
Forecast: Joe’sgoldenholiday had a nice sprint prep when runner-up on turf in her first outing since December and seems likely to produce a forward move while stretching out to her preferred trip. She is drawn comfortably inside and is likely to draft into a cozy second flight position. Spin Me a Kiss was a nice winner vs. state-bred foes over this course and distance in late July, has trained in sharp fashion since, and has plenty of further improvement in her. If not pressured on the front end she could be difficult to run down.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Private Marini; 6-Morgan S.; 8-Coils Gold
Forecast: This is an unusually strong race for the level with plenty of legitimate contenders. Morgan S. won at first asking with a giant speed figure in his debut and must be given strong consideration right back. The barn has strong stats in the “repeat winner” category. Coils Gold lost all chance at the start with a poor break but produced an extended run and finished with interest vs. similar last month. With a clean start today, he can be a strong threat over a racetrack he clearly likes. Private Marini earned a huge figure in winning a claimer at Santa Rosa by daylight recently and gets ambitious for a high percentage trainer who wouldn’t be here if he didn’t think this gelding would be competitive. These are our preferred three but if you find the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Holy Ghost; 9-Solomini
Forecast: Holy Ghost didn’t get the best of runs in his debut but finished with interest in a hot race and seems likely to improve despite the quick two-week turn around. The extra half-furlong won’t hurt, either. Solomini may not be a quick type but definitely has ability and should be a threat at this extended sprint distance. We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play while preferring Holy Ghost on top.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Spanish Hombre; 11-Klondike Creek
Forecast: This is a typical grass grab bag. Small ticket players should consider the two listed above. Spanish Hombre has a pair of recent harp races over the course, is a fit on numbers, and is a first-off-the-claim for Baltas, who has amazing stats with this angle. Klondike Creek has hit the board in eight straight starts – that’s the good news – but has failed as the favorite in each of his last four. He has a disturbing habit of losing ground from the furlong pole to the wire, yet on pure numbers he certainly can win a race like this. Let’s prefer Spanish Hombre on top and have a few extra tickets keying him in the exotics.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Moonshine Memories; 3-Spectator; 5-Just a Smidge
Forecast: This is a very strong edition of the Del Mar Debutante and it will take a very good filly to win it. Just a Smidge was visually quite impressive in winning her debut and has come back to train splendidly since. She acts like this seven furlong trip will be well within her range. Moonshine Memories was equally impressive in her debut win but is returning on short rest and we wonder if quick turnaround will stunt her improvement. Spectator already is a graded stakes winner over this track and is another who should relish the extended sprint trip. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Just a Smidge on top.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-St Patrick’s Day; 2-Major Cabbie; 3-Instilled Regard
Forecast: American Pharoah’s full-brother St Patrick’s Day flashed extreme promise in his debut when second to his equally highly-regarded stablemate Zatter despite a less than ideal trip from the inside. He’s buried inside again but with that effort behind him the Baffert-trained colt should produce a significant forward move even though he’s coming back in two weeks. We’re expecting he’ll be held up a bit early rather than being rushed off his feet this time. Instilled Regard brought more than $1 million at auction this past spring and has done everything like a nice colt for Hollendorfer while preparing for his racing debut. He strikes us as being more of a route-type, but still might have enough quality to be competitive. Major Cabbie is another highly-regarded colt making his debut for the Hendricks’ barn and looks fit and ready based on his strong work tab. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth including in rolling exotic play.
RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Cambodia; 6-Mrs McDougal; 10-Insta Erma; 13-Goodyearforroses
Forecast: This deeply competitive stakes for older fillies and mares has many legitimate contenders, and just about any result would not be considered truly surprising. Mrs McDougal had been away for almost a year when third as the choice in the Osunitas and should move forward off that effort while getting a bit more ground to work with. She’ll be running on strongly late, but will need some racing luck in a big field. Cambodia just won the Yellow Ribbons Stakes over the local lawn with authority and has trained smartly since, so we’re expecting a similar type of effort right back. The two Baltas entrants both have credentials and have trained very well over this turf course. Goodyearforroses is poorly drawn but doesn’t have Lady Eli to worry about today while Insta Erma is a first-time Baltas with credentials and could get at least a piece of it at 20-1 on the morning line.
RACE 10: Post 6:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Airfoil; 7-He’saruler; 12-Jes Jaa
Forecast: Yet another difficult event, this one for $12,500 claimers over seven furlongs. He’saruler is a first-off-the-claim for Mullins, has the proper style for this extended sprint trip and switches to Desormeaux. He seems certain to produce forward move his new connections and looks capable of producing the last run. Jes Jaa lands the cozy outside post and will be tough if he can repeat his last effort, a nice win over this track in late July. He was a voided claim in that race and certainly has a condition question, but is good enough if healthy. Airfoil also comes off a nice score over this main track but is dropping a level, not exactly a sign of confidence. If he has one good one left, he’ll be right there.
RACE 11: Post 7:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Cozmic One; 12-Ice Kat
Forecast: To say that Cozmic One has been slow to develop would be an understatement; he’s had only three starts and remains a maiden late into his five-year-old season. But Zenyatta’s son may have found a home on turf based on his recent comeback race over this course, a fast-finishing fourth when beaten less than length. If he builds on that effort today – and he should with an extra half-furlong to work with – the son of Bernardini might be able to produce a winning late kick. Ice Kat is stuck way outside and hasn’t been out since January but he ran very well over this turf course last year and the works at San Luis Rey Downs for Baltas look pretty solid.
SARATOGA
Saturday, September 2, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Driven by Thunder; 9-Borsa Vento
RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Oroscopo; 6-Say the Word; 10-Maraud
RACE 3: Post 2:08 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Bluegrass Jamboree
RACE 4: Post: 2:43 ET. Grade: C
Use: 5-Slim Shadey; 7-Dancetrack; 12-Generous Kitten; 13-Doc’s Legacy
RACE 5: Post 3:17 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Let’s Get Loud; 8-J. S. Choice
RACE 6: Post 3:51 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Biblical; 7-Venezuela; 9-Lionite
RACE 7: Post 4:26 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Still Krz; 2-Alex the Terror; 6-Gift Box; 8-Sound the Horns
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Wild About Harry; 4-Create a Dream; 6-Thais
RACE 9: Post 5:36 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mr Havercamp; 4-Bricks and Mortar
RACE 10: Post 6:11 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Separationofpowers; 4-Pure Silver
RACE 11: Post 6:46 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Gun Runner
RACE 12: Post 7:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lottie; 4-War Flag; 5-Grateful
