The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Saturday, August 19, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-The Real McCann; 3-Bucky Goldstein
Forecast: The Real McCann plummets from straight maiden to maiden $20,000 and if he can’t act at this level then there’s not much hope for him on this circuit. His debut wasn’t too bad and with the addition of blinkers today he’ll likely to flash more early speed, which, from the rail, is probably a necessity. Bucky Goldstein ran well in his debut but hasn’t made any progress since; he’s another adding blinkers for the first time and that could help wake him up. Tread lightly here.
RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Prime Issue; 3-Lord Simba
Forecast: Lord Simba has been used as a workmate for Drefong in recent weeks and has more than held his own, so the graded stakes winning sprinter should be able to regain his best form in this second-level allowance sprint. He’ll likely stalk Prime Issue early and then try to go by late. The latter has never been sharper and clearly loves the Del Mar main track (four wins in seven starts). The Miller-trained gelding probably is the quickest in the field and will have every chance to take his rivals gate to wire.
RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B
Single: 8-Love My Bud
Forecast: In a wide open affair, let’s go for a price with Love My Bud on top. This will be his first try around two turns, and in his second off a layoff the Jones-trained gelding might be able to establish the pace and keep on going in a field lacking in effective closers. His one prior outing over the Del Mar lawn last year wasn’t bad. At 8-1 on the morning line, the son of Tizbud is worth strong consideration both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Aeon; 3-Mt. Leinster; 9-Special Story
Forecast: In a very competitive extended sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers, the Aeon, off for several months but seemingly training well, deserves a good look while dropping to his lowest level ever and switching to Truman’s main guy Desormaux. He’ll get the patient ride he needs and with some help up front could be heard from in a big way in the final furlong. Special Story makes his third start off a layoff and should produce another forward move. Drawn comfortably outside, the Ellis-trained gelding projects to enjoy an ideal, pace-stalking trip and is strictly the one to beat. Mt. Leinster, first off the claim for Spawr and making his first start since March, could fire a big shot off the bench for a highly-capable outfit. Delgadillo doesn’t get may live mounts overall but this is one barn that occasionally throws him a bone.
RACE 5: Post 4:13 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Aussie Fox; 9-Icy Street; 12-Langham
Forecast: This wide open grass grab bag is begging to be won by a decent price horse, and Icy Street seems to fit the bill. Lightly-raced with a better-than-looked effort over this course vs. similar last month, the Sadler-trained colt has worked nicely since that outing and can be expected to produce a significant forward move today. Baze stays aboard and will have this son of Street Boss rolling in the final furlong. His uncoupled Sadler-trained stablemate Langham ran huge over this course last and has put together a solid series of workouts to have him as fit as possible for this, his first outing since March. Aussie Fox lands the good rail and shortens to a mile; he projects to be on or near the lead most of the way.
Video Analysis
RACE 6: Post 4:43 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Moonshine Memories; 6-Tyfosha
Forecast: Tyfosha is logically the one to beat following a runner-up debut effort behind subsequent Landaluce stakes winner Surrender Now and then finishing second again to the hot prospect Just a Smidge. It would seem that she can’t handle a good filly but it takes a good filly to beat her. Moonshine Memories might just be one of those. A $650,000 yearling purchase, the Callaghan-trained daughter of Malibu Moon has done everything right in the morning and looks fit and ready for a big effort. She’ll be a better price than Tyfosha so we’ll give her top billing while using both in rolling exotic play.
RACE 7: Post 5:13 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 11-Hunt
Forecast: In his first start with blinkers, Hunt was highly impressive winning the Eddie Read S.-G2 here last month and today will try to show his connections that he can transfer that middle distance form to a marathon. He’s worked splendidly since that win to indicate the added distance should be within his range. We’re expecting the Irish-bred gelding to win right back.
Video Analysis
RACE 8: Post 5:45 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Collected; 3-Accelerate; 8-Arrogate
Forecast: Arrogate flopped badly in the San Diego ‘Cap-G2, so this this year’s edition of the Pacific Classic-G1 had a bit of intrigue to it. The best version of Arrogate will smother his opposition, especially at 10 furlongs, but there remains some doubt based on good but not great recent workouts that he’s back to his best. His Baffert-trained stablemate Collected has never been better nor has he ever looked better in the morning since his career top performance in the Precisionist S.-G3 at Santa Anita in late June. The question is, can he get a mile and one-quarter? Meanwhile, the runaway win by Accelerate in his first race with blinkers in the San Diego might be dismissed as something of a fluke – he had finished 16 lengths behind Collected in the Precisionist – but what is hard to ignore is his perfect (3-for-3) record at Del Mar. This is a great race to enjoy, but not really one to invest heavily in.
RACE 9: Post 6:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 8-Americanize; 10-Edwards Going Left
Forecast: Americanize had a right to be a bit short when a distant second to Prime Issue in a similar spot last month but won’t have that excuse today. With any kind of forward move, the Concord Point gelding should have every chance to stalk, pounce, and win. Edwards Going Left ran into a roadblock when attempting to rally through the lane in the Real Good Deal Stakes vs. state-bred 3-year-olds and had to settle for third. The number came up strong, so with clear sailing today the son of Midnight Lute should be tough to contain in the final furlong.
RACE 10: Post 6:45 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 5-Con Te Partiro
Forecast: Con Te Partiro was the winner of the 24-runner Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot under 131 lbs. and couldn’t have been more impressive in doing so. The daughter of Scat Daddy unleashed a superior turn of foot in the furlong to win going away over the straightaway mile course while giving every indication that today’s nine furlong trip will be easily obtainable. She’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
Video Analysis
RACE 11: Post 7:15 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Meet and Greet
Forecast: Meet and Greet has trained well enough to score at first asking in a moderate race for straight maiden state-bred fillies and mares. She needs to leave cleanly from the rail, but if she does the daughter of Tribal Rule should be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance in a field lacking in effective closers. The barn is solid with debut runners and with bug boy Roman taking the call this filly looks extremely well-meant.
SARATOGA
Saturday, August 19, 2017
(Updated 9:00 a.m. PT)
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-River Date; 8-Southside Warrior
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Hyndford; 8-Ezmosh; 10-Witch Doctor
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Wildcat Belle; 5-Hexameter
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Manitoulin; 7-Aquaphobia
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Super Sermon; 6-Valiant Perception; 7-Allured; 8-Avery Island
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Meantime
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Giada Vegas; 6-Ellery Lane; 8-Glory Kitten
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-La Coronel; 4-Proctor’s Ledge; 6-Uni
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Holy Helena; 5-Unchained Melody
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Assertive; 5-Time to Flirt; 7-Remarqued
