The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
t is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Warrior Vixen; 5-Bridal Arch; 7-Christmas Carol
Forecast: Warrior Vixen is an eight-race maiden and perhaps not one to fully trust, but she has numbers that can beat this field and a recent bullet blowout to indicate she’s healthy and in good form. Bridal Arch shows up in a claimer for the first time; this Bay Area shipper is a fit on figures and ran well when third at Pleasanton in her only prior start over conventional dirt. Christmas Carol returns to dirt and is a solid contender at this level, though her outside draw with a short run to the clubhouse turn might be a tad problematic. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
Video Analysis resumes Saturday, August 12.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dream Police; 4-Radio Silent
Forecast: Dream Police exits an open $16,000 claimer and today shows up in a restricted (nw-3) affair for the same price. Drawn comfortably inside, the Baltas-trained gelding has a strong race over the track and a prior win here as well, and from the rail he should have every chance to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-pressing trip. Radio Silent, away since November and making his first start as a gelding, has a so-so recent work pattern but is waiver protected and boasts an excellent record over the Del Mar main track. We’ll operate under the assumption that Hess has him fit and ready.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-On the Right
Forecast: On the Right drops again in class while stretching out for the first time and seems properly placed for a major forward move. The son of Gone Astray sprints like he’ll route, retains Talamo, lands the good rail, and should parlay a ground-saving trip to a maiden diploma- earning performance. He’s a straight play and rolling exotic single, though we suspect he’ll go lower than his morning line of 5/2.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Victory Seeker; 7-Besides the Point; 8-Love Winning
Forecast: This seems like an evenly-matched ground of mid-grade claiming sprinting fillies and mares. We’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Besides the Point has won two of her last three and can win on the lead or from mid-pack. She’s probably the most dependable in the field, though others are just as fast on figures. Victory Seeker, second in her last pair up north, might be more effective on an all-weather surface, though she did hit the board in a maiden claimer over the Del Mar main track last year. After breaking her maiden over a mile two runs back, Love Winning earned a big figure beating a $12,500 field Santa Anita last month in an extended sprint. We’re not sure she’ll be just as effective dropping back to six furlongs but in her present form she has to be respected.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Tina’s Exchange; 3-Zipman; 5-Milhaud
Forecast: This maiden turf sprint should be dominated by Tina’s Exchange, but he’s been a beaten choice in her last pair (at 2/5 two races back, no less), so he’s hardly one to bank on. However, this shortened trip might be what he’s always wanted. No excuses today. Milhaud is another with plenty of zip but has been suspect under pressure in the final furlong. He, too, should enjoy this abbreviated sprint distance. Zipman is a first-timer from the Baffert barn bred for turf sprinting (City Zip); he’s worked okay (not great) but might be a better type on the lawn.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Candy Boss; 3-Vallestina
Forecast: Vallestina won by the length of the grandstand in her debut in a maiden $20,000 sprint at Canterbury Downs. Subsequently purchased by a sharp effort, she shows up for some ship-and-win money while being protected in starter’s allowance company, so today we’ll find out what she’s made up. She’s a fit on numbers but doesn’t have decided edge over Candy Boss, who appears to be the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. This return to dirt seems like a good idea.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Just a Little Hope; 3-Reiki Baby; 5-Utana
Forecast: Utana is a one-paced grinder but seems to be progressing. She’s worked quite well over this main track and seems primed for another forward move. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth strong consideration in the straight pool. Just a Little Hope is solid on speed figures and was a close third with a perfect trip at this level on grass in her most recent start. A bullet workout over this track last week gives indication that she, too, has room for further development. Reiki Baby has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern that we like and a pedigree that suggest she’ll enjoy today’s added distance.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Marynetta; 9-Altaira; 11-Ebony Cat
Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares requires a spread, with Altaira seeking her third straight and likely to fire her usual shot. In the money in 17 of 21 career starts and a prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the veteran mare prefers to stalk and pounce and should have every chance to do just that in a race loaded with early zip. Marynetta will bust out and go from the rail and knows where the wire is; she’s a nine year old mare with 17 career scores and this drop in class may help her regain her winning form. Ebony Cat is another that has speed and little else; we’ll be curious to see how 10-pound bug rider Maria Falgione performs in her first career mount.
SARATOGA
Wednesday, August 9, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No Play
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Sunset Ridge
RACE 3: Post 2:07 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Spectacular Me; 3-Awesome Quick; 5-Lamontagne
RACE 4: Post: 2:41 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Everybody Loves Me; 2-Hint of Mint; 4-Lady Invanka
RACE 5: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Fox Strike; 6-Sidd Finch
RACE 6: Post 3:59 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Tiz a Kitten; 6-Fahan Mura
RACE 7: Post 4:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-About That Base; 2-Cotton Candy Cutie; 3-Three Eighty Eight
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Desert Duchess; 2-Silver Magnolia; 10-On My Toes
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Blind Ambition; 5-Expedited Vision
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 10-Fortunate Queen; 11-Fairybrook
