The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
DEL MAR
Friday, July 21, 2017
RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Southern Treasure; 4-Ipray; 6-Herunbridledpower
Forecast: This low-level claimer for fillies and mares has contenders top to bottom, so we’ll use three and hope to get by. Southern Treasure is a win machine (7-for-16) and the Bay Area shipper lands hot-riding Bejarano in her first start since being claimed by Morey (solid stats with this angle). Herunbridledpower takes a nosedive in class, is perfect over this track (1-for-1) and should be on or near the lead throughout. Ipray returns to her claim level, shortens to an extended sprint and has an excellent record over the Del Mar main track.
RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Cleanup Hitter; 8-Bloodletting
Forecast: Bloodletting is a progressive sort and should enjoy what projects to be a very soft pace at this seven furlong distance. He’s trained well since his last outing, so another forward move is likely. Cleanup Hitter drops again in class to the bottom; he earned a much better than par speed figure when third routing in his last start and if he can come close to that today he’ll hard to beat.
RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Pacific Wind
Forecast: With a better trip – she got stopped entering the far turn – Pacific Wind could easily have won the Honeymoon Stakes in her last start, so it was a bit surprising that she didn’t return in the San Clemente Stakes on Sunday rather than this first-level allowance affair. This should be a confidence builder for the daughter of Curlin, who likely has the Del Mar Oaks as her long term goal for this meeting. At 9/5 on the morning line and certain to go lower, she’s a no value rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Liska; 3-Bold Determination
Forecast: The debuting Liska has been working slowly and steadily but strikes us as a colt with much more ability than he’s been allowed to show. He’ll have to leave quickly from the rail to avoid trouble but if he does, the son of Dunkirk could spring a surprise at 10-1 on the morning line. Bold Determination is a first-time gelding in his second career start; the son of Jersey Town exits a monster race (he was well-beaten) and seems sure to improve a bunch vs. this much softer group. Worth noting is that Miller and Prat teamed to win a maiden claimer yesterday.
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Jet Set Man; 11-Salient
Forecast: Having shown he can run well fresh (his debut), Jet Set Man looks very dangerous off the bench in this entry-level abbreviated turf sprint and may prove to be the speed of the speed. Got to think bug boy Roman will let him roll from the gate and try to run the others off their feet. Salient pulverized a state-bred maiden special weight field in mid-April down the Hillside course but hasn’t been out since. However, his work tab at San Luis Rey Downs gives every indication that he’s fit and ready for a barn that has good stats in a limited sample with layoff runners.
RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Stringent; 5-Percy’s Bluff; 9-American Pastime
Forecast: This is an extremely deep field for the level, though certainly American Pastime is the logical top pick following a fast, highly-rated score last month in a first-level affair in just his third career start. Drawn beautifully outside, the Tapizar can pop and go or stalk and pounce depending upon the race flow. Stringent is intriguing at 12-1 on the morning line with that route-to-sprint angle and excellent one-turn form earlier in his career. Recent workouts indicate he’s spot on for a major effort and it will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the addition of blinkers will have. Percy’s Bluff might be biting off more than he can chew but he’s simply too much race horse to dismiss, and the speed figure he earned in his most recent victory puts him in the fray.
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Mrs McDougal
Forecast: Mrs McDougal makes her first start for Richard Mandella and her first since last September; she’s eligible to this restricted stakes race despite being a multiple graded stakes winner and her recent works have been spectacular. She has good speed but doesn’t need the lead to win so Prat can do pretty much what he wants. She’s 5/2 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go much lower than that.
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Suit of Lights; 3-Unobtainable; 9-Continental Divide
Forecast: This is a wide open maiden state-bred sprint with several possibilities but even more question marks. Suit of Lights has a prior run and should improve, but doesn’t strike us as being all that much. Continental Divide most likely isn’t a five furlong type but he did bring some money ($245,000) at the Barretts May Sale so you know he’s fairly well regarded. Unobtainable may be the most dangerous of the San Luis Rey Shippers based strictly on workout times but we’re largely guessing. Tread lightly, or spread as deep as you can afford to.
SARATOGA
Friday, July 21, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Indycott; 5-Rich Daddy
RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Misty Forest; 5-Scatback
RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Offlee Brawn; 3-Planet Trailblazer; 6-Point Hope
RACE 4: Post: 2:40 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Patternrecognition
RACE 5: Post 3:14 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Amazing Belle; 6-Crimson Creed; 7-Honey Glow
RACE 6: Post 3:48 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 11-Some Kinda Crazy; 12-Discreet Image
RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Black Sea; 2-Messi; 4-Muqtaser
RACE 8: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Mel’s Gone Wild; 3-Best Performance; 4-Dream It Is
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Fifty Five; 3-Defiant Honor; 8-Proctor’s Ledge
RACE 10: Post 6:17 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Joyful Joyful; 7-Grand Banks; 10-Veil
