The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
SANTA ANITA
Saturday, April 8, 2017
RACE 1: Post 12:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Doc Curlin; 5-Ebadan; 8-Roy H
The opener is a highly competitive downhill turf sprint for entry-level allowance runners. We’ll go three-deep but the best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Ebadan won his U.S. debut over this course and distance and then was sent long for his next nine outings. The Irish-bred gelding certainly can route, but this might be his preferred trip and we’re expecting the Neil Drysdale-trained import to offer a serious late challenge with the switch to Kent Desormeaux. Doc Curlin may have found his niche as a turf sprinter; he’d been routing his entire career until dropped into a hillside sprint in his first outing in 10 months and looked quite good rolling past a decent starter’s allowance field in early February while earning a speed figure that fits with these. The Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding should offer a strong late challenge once again. Roy H, freshened and burning up the track in the a.m. for Peter Miller, has a prior big figure win over the course and could fire a huge shot in his first start since last July. The stable has incredible stats with the layoff angle – 25% with a massive flat-bet profit – and this More Than Ready gelding has intense early speed when it wants to use it.
RACE 2: Post 12:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Champagne Girl; 4-Southern Mischief; 6-Queen Laila
A completely unclassified field of maiden sophomore fillies makes the second race a difficult handicapping proposition. Queen Laila is bred to be very quick (The Factor) and sports a 35 flat gate work (fastest of 15) last week to indicate her readiness. She appears to be a filly of some quality so let’s put her on top. Champagne Girl has trained like a good thing for Richard Mandella and should be plenty fit for a good effort first crack out of the box. Southern Mischief exits a fast, highly-rated race and seems quite likely to be fitter and stronger today. The Bob Baffert barn hits at 27% with second-time starters. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets on top with Queen Laila.
RACE 3: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Cascade Kid
Sophomore maidens sprint seven furlongs in the third race, a fairly strong race for the level. Cascade Kid is the likely choice and one to beat. A promising runner-up in a highly-rated maiden affair (third place finisher Colonist came back to win his next start), this son of Smart Strike should benefit greatly from the outing and is likely to produce a significant forward move for trainers Jerry Hollendorfer, whose stats with this angle are very strong (22% with a flat-bet profit). Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 4: Post: 1:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-S Y Sky; 8-Miss Sunset
The Evening Jewel Stakes for state-bred 3-year-old fillies is carded as the fourth race with Miss Sunset having much in her favor as the logical top pick. She’s back sprinting where she belongs, adds blinkers for the first time, lands the cozy outside post, and boasts a bullet half mile workout (46 4/5 seconds) since her last outing. A stakes winner sprinting as a two-year-old, the daughter of Into Mischief should be on or near the lead throughout. S Y Sky is a first-timer by Grenzen debuting in a stakes, which tells you what her high-percentage connections think of her. She’s worked well enough to deserve some consideration. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Miss Sunset.
RACE 5: Post 2:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Pretty Girl; 6-Harmonize
Harmonize wouldn’t have been flown cross country in what will be her first start since November if trainer Bill Mott didn’t think she was fit and ready for a winning performance in today’s fifth race, the Royal Heroine Stakes. The high-class daughter of Scat Daddy came west to capture the Del Mar Oaks-G1 last summer and has finished first or second in eight of 11 career starts. Her workouts at Payson Park in Florida indicate she’s returning as well as she left, so we’ll put her strongly on top while also including in our rolling exotics Pretty Girl, a runner-up twice to Goodyearforroses in a pair of strong local stakes races earlier this meeting. The Argentine-bred import was a Group-1 winner at La Plata as a 3-year-old and seems to be acclimating quite well for Paulo Lobo.
RACE 6: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-It Tiz Well; 3-Paradise Woods; 4-Abel Tasman
The sixth race is the Grade-1 Santa Anita Oaks, an unusually strong edition this year even without the injured Unique Bella in the lineup. Abel Tasman finished an excellent second to ‘Bella in her sophomore debut last month when beaten two lengths while eight clear of the rest; she was subsequently transferred to the Bob Baffert barn and should run at least as well if not better today with three strong workouts since joining her new outfit. The daughter of Quality Road won the Starlet S.-G1 last December and clearly has made proper progress over the winter. It Tiz Well has her last pair in pleasing style, most recently at Oaklawn Park in the Honeybee S.-G3 with a career top speed figure. A similar effort today puts her in the thick of things once again. Paradise Woods is making a monumental jump from a maiden special weight sprint to middle distance Grade-1 competition today. She’s a top class prospect and could be up to the task, though Mandella is really asking a lot. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Abel Tasman on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Plane Lucky; 6-Avicii
Avicii had her two race winning streak snapped when missing in a photo in her most recent outing, but gets a good spot to make amends for her failure at even money by coming right back vs. the same company in his first off the claim for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Prat stays aboard, and we’re anticipating that the veteran daughter of City Zip will be ready to pounce at the head of the lane. Plane Lucky, second as the favorite to Avicii when they met in early February, has been freshened since then and should come out firing for the always-potent Bejarano/Baltas combination. Never worse than second in four career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Lucky Pulpit could be quick enough to grab control early if she leaves cleanly from the rail. We’ll prefer Avicii on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 8: Post 3:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Reach the World; 7-Kimbear; 8-Gormley
This year’s edition of the Santa Anita Derby may not have any world beaters in the line-up, but it’s a deep and contentious affair with a number of legitimate contenders. Kimbear was very impressive breaking his maiden over seven furlongs in his last start, and the colt he beat – Sonneteer – came back to finished a very good second in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The son of Temple City is bred to stay nine furlongs, though he still has to prove he wants to run that far. At 12-1 on the morning line in an open affair, the Eric Kruljac-trained colt deserves a long shot look. Reach to the World is improving with racing and likely was best when second to Battle of Midway in a strong first-level allowance event last month. The son of Tapit may be most effective if taken back and allowed to produce one run, and given that type of trip in this speed-laden affair he could make the last run for the Arrogate team of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith. Gormley has been fading on the front end so we’re expecting different tactics today. The winner of the FrontRunner S.-G1 over this track as a juvenile, the son of Malibu Moon has looked quite good in the a.m. of late and if responds to patient handling he might be heard from him a big way in the final furlong. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket tor two on top keying long shot Kimber on top.
RACE 9: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Sircat Sally; 4-Beau Recall
Sircat Sally is undefeated in four career starts and is a perfect two-for-two over the Santa Anita lawn, but today she’ll be trying to carry her speed nine furlongs for the first time and the added distance surely will test her limits. From the rail post she’s certain to be sent to the lead by Smith and if not pressured early could easily take her rivals gate-to-wire. The one to fear most is the filly who just chased her home, Beau Recall. A smart winner in her U.S. debut over the local lawn in January, the Simon Callaghan-trained Irish-bred lost nothing in defeat when setting for second behind ‘Sally in the recent China Doll Stakes, finishing strongly but finding the one mile trip a tad too sharp. A today’s distance, she might be tough to contain. We’ll prefer Sircat Sally on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 10: Post: 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-B Squared; 8-California Diamond; 9-Elwood J
State-bred sophomores sprint six and one-half furlongs in the 10th race, the Echo Eddie Stakes, with several possibilities to consider. B Squared was visually quite impressive breaking his maiden at first asking with a closing kick that should be quite effective at this extended sprint distance. Jockey Corey Nakatani should have him rolling in the final furlong and with good racing luck may be able to tag the speed. Elwood J was an excellent third in a powerful first-level open allowance affair and he’s back with California-bred foes today while landing the comfortable outside post. The son of Vronsky can be effective on any surface and should be part of the pace every step of the way. California Diamond, never worse than second in 10 career starts, is thoroughly genuine and consistent and a multiple stakes winner in state-bred company. He’s probably most effective around one turn and this drop back in trip could easily get him back in the winner’s circle. These are the three we’ll include in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to B Squared.
RACE 11: Post: 5:10 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Fregosi
Fregosi tipped his hand with excellent fourth place effort without being knocked about in a downhill turf sprint last month and today, in his second career outing, the son of Elusive Quality stretches out to what should be a much more comfortable distance. The Leonard Powell-trained gelding retains Tyler Baze, stays at the maiden $75,000 level, and should be fitter and sharper with that effort behind him. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
KEENELAND
Saturday, April 8, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:05 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Chief Know It All; 4-Star Empire
RACE 2: Post 1:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Etiquette; 6-Annathela
RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Maniacal; 5-Homespun Hero
RACE 4: Post: 2:45 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Giuseppe the Great; 12-Switzerland
RACE 5: Post 3:18 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Channel Maker; 4-Adonis Creed; 12-Bird’s Eye View
RACE 6: Post 3:53 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Ami’s Flatter; 8-A. P. Indian; 9-Awesome Slew
RACE 7: Post 4:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Rainbow Heir; 3-Green Mask; 7-Hogy
RACE 8: Post 5:03 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Clothes Fall Off; 6-Paulassilverlining
RACE 9: Post 5:40 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Elate; 3-Pretty City Dancer
RACE 10: Post: 6:17 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-McCraken; 3-J Boys Echo
RACE 11: Post: 6:50 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Lido
