October 4, 2024
Pick-6 Carryover Analysis/Strategies (races 4-9)
Friday, October 4, 2024
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: A-
Main Ticket/Prime Play: 6-Legal Fiction
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Already a two-time winner in her brief career, unbeaten Legal Fiction remains eligible to this first level allowance main track dash for 2-year-olds because of the purse earnings clause in the race conditions, and she’ll have much in her favor at this elongated sprint distance from her cozy outside draw due to the fact that the D. O’Neill-trained filly employs a highly effective stalk-pounce-and-go style that almost certainly will ensure a trouble-free trip. She toyed with her outclassed foes at Fresno, but that race was less than two weeks so the only concern is the short rest of 13 days since that outing. However, with speed figures that are fastest in the field and with the possibility of another forward move, the daughter of I’ll Have Another seems like a logical Pick-6 carryover single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Cullen J
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Cullen J ran better than the line will show in his debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar and seems certain to step forward with that bit of experience behind him. The son of Sir Prancealot gets off the rail today after displaying good speed to always be within range before staying on well through the lane to wind up a respectable third. The R. Baltas-trained colt is facing what appears to be a softer group of maidens and based on our pace projection should be in the first flight throughout, maybe even on the lead. His morning line of 7/5 doesn’t offer much value, but you can use him as a single in the various rolling exotics with a fair degree of confidence.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 8-Arromax; 4-Supreme Coast; 2-Bowtie Boys
Other Contenders: 3-Getemdusty; 7-Classic Alphie.
Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claiming router looks borderline inscrutable with nothing to trust, so a spread in rolling exotic play is in order. Arromax is a one-paced grinder with no acceleration, but his speed figures fit with these, so he projects to be a major contender. Trouble is, he’s been a beaten favorite in his last pair and in both cases he failed to take advantage of the help he had up front. Supreme Court is another with a similar style – he has never displayed any real turn of foot – but in a weak affair a repeat of his runner-up effort (beaten a head) last time out at Del Mar charts quite well here. However, low profile connections don’t inspire confidence. Bowtie Boys stretches out for the first time and could improve enough to be a serious threat, though his sprint numbers aren’t inspiring. But like we always say, if they’re ever going to run well two turning, it’ll be in their first try.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Just Nails; 6-Tom’s Regret
Other Contenders: 4-Speed Lane; 8-Kitty Kitana (GB).
Forecast: The rail draw in these Hillside turf sprints isn’t ideal, but Just Nails has a proper stalking style, so if she can secure a comfortable second flight position she should fire a big shot. Winless in five career starts over the lawn but second in three of those and first or second in seven of 10 grass outings overall, she retains “win rider” E. Maldonado and shows a bullet half mile breeze (:46 4/5) on dirt just a few days ago to keep her on edge. The D. O’Neill-trained filly is solid on numbers and the deserved morning line (2-1) favorite. Tom’s Regret is interesting. Runner-up in both of her grass starts and bred to prefer that surface, she returns to turf after facing considerably tougher competition is a long series of dirt outings. Her only prior start over this tricky downhill course resulted in a narrow second (beaten a neck) in the Senorita Stakes-G3 last year, and a repeat of that race today likely could very well be good enough. We’ll include these two on our main tick and then protect with the potentially dangerous Speed Lane (route-to-sprint angle with a class drop) and Kitty Kitana (just claimed for $100,000 by J. Sadler).
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8-Saltwater Cowboy; 1-Navy Man; 7-Jerry’s Spirit
Other Contenders : 3-Don’t Hit Me Bash; 5-Mischelof
Forecast: Here’s another fairly wide open affair that offers several possibilities. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Saltwater Cowboy is lightly raced and improving and was quite sharp when finally breaking his maiden in his sixth lifetime outing at Del Mar last month. The son of Mastery had raced exclusively on turf prior to switching surfaces for the first time and in the process earned a career top speed figure while enjoying an ideal second flight, stalking journey that earned him eligibility to this starter allowance dirt miler. Based on figures, he’s a strong fit with these. Navy Man was once well regarded but has been a huge disappointment, so his connections drop him into a seller for the first time while stretching him again. He’ll likely employ pace setting/pressing tactics from his favorable rail draw, and with J. Hernandez staying aboard he’s worth tossing in. Jerry’s Spirit earned a giant figure when easily beating maiden $40,000 foes at Los Alamitos in just his second career start three weeks ago. These are tougher and his ability to handle two turns is unknown, but based on numbers he could be dangerous, especially if he can secure a trip as the controlling speed. Don’t Hit Me Bash and Mischelof have enough credentials to toss in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: A
Main Ticket/Prime Play: Sea Runner
Other contenders: none
Forecast: Sea Runner, a two-year-old half-sister to Johannes with plenty of potential, returns to the maiden ranks after an excellent third place finish in an infinitely tougher spot in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar last month. Back with maidens today after improving her Beyer speed figures by 23 points behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Thought Process, the daughter of Gun Runner found her best stride too late to finish eagerly in a hot affair and really won’t have to improve much (though we suspect she will) in today’s maiden grass affair. The barn’s “go-to” rider U. Rispoli stays aboard and should have the T. Yakteen-trained filly along in plenty of time as a Prime Play and logical Pick-6 single.
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