Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/31/24
______________________________________________________________________________
Del Mar 7th Race – Post: 4:37 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 9-Pure Madness.
Other Contenders: 5-Don’t Fight the Fed.
Forecast: Pure Madness shows the always dangerous two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern while returning to what we suspect is his preferred surface in this first level allowance middle distance state-bred turf affair after finishing a good runner-up in the Real Good Deal Stakes earlier this month. With a pedigree that suggests he’ll handle the extra distance and being reunited with “win rider” T. Baze, the son of Sir Prancealot is fast on figures and seems likely to step forward again while projecting to enjoy a pace stalking or pressing trip. The B. Koriner-trained sophomore shows two recent easy breezes to tick him over, so at 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make him an aggressive win play and main push in the various exotics.
______________________________________________________________________________
Del Mar 8th race – Post: 5:08 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 6-Ultra Power.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Ultra Power has trained like he’s much improved since the last time we saw him 10 months ago, and in his first start since last November this Curlin colt from the top race mare Unique Bella should be capable of producing a winning performance in a stronger-than-par entry level allowance race over a mile on the main track. He was a bit backward as a two-year-old but with the addition of Lasix and with the removal of blinkers the B. Baffert-trained colt seems highly likely to return better than he left. The presence of J. Hernandez (his “win rider” from last year) adds fuel to the fire for a barn that always has strong stats with the layoff angle. We’re expecting this highly athletic colt to be forwardly placed and then have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire at 3-1 on the morning line.
______________________________________________________________________________
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/31/24
______________________________________________________________________________
Saratoga 6th Race – Post: 2:47 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 5-Laurice.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Laurice was one of the most impressive preview performers at the OBS April Sale, where she breezed a furlong in a sizzling 9 4/5 seconds without being asked much and then brought $460,00 through the ring. The daughter of Bolt d’Oro debuts in this five and one-half furlong maiden turf affair for juveniles following a series of slow, easy, steady, and sharp local drills to have her fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. From a barn whose maidens usually run faster than they work, this quick-actioned, athletic filly lands an ideal spot to graduate so if she makes no mistakes along the way she’ll offer a good gamble at or near her morning line of 7/2.
______________________________________________________________________________
Saratoga 8th race – Post: 3:55 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: Makes Sense.
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Makes Sense has done some very good work in the morning leading up to his racing debut but he’s not a front-running speed type, so we’re happy to see him show up in an extended (seven furlong) sprint affair that we’ll allow him to settle early and gradually make his way into contention. The T. Pletcher-trained colt should be plenty fit following a series of team drills in which he’s always proved best through the lane, so if given a patient ride by Irad Ortiz, Jr. this $375,00 Street Sense colt looks capable of pulling off a mild surprise at 6-1 on the morning line.
______________________________________________________________________________
