Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Del Mar – 8/15/24
Del Mar 1st race – Post: 2:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: 4-Pioneer Prince.
Other Contenders: 5-Uncle Reg; 1-Kid Azteca.
Forecast: Pioneer Prince looked quite sharp winning a restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimer over this course and distance earlier this month and may prove to be a timely claim by D. O’Neill, who protects him today in a sign of confidence. This starter allowance field is tougher and more competitive than one he just handled convincingly but based on speed figures the four-year-old gelding should be quite competitive on the raise. He has good tactical speed and can be effective on the front end or from a stalking position, so regular pilot M. Smith can assess the situation leaving the gate and then pick his spot. There should be reasonable wagering value available at or near his morning line of 3-1.
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Del Mar 7th Race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 7-Diamond Bar Gal.
Other Contenders: 6-Irish Wahine; 2-Andiamo Ragazza.
Forecast: Diamond Bar Gal hasn’t been out in almost a year but the work tab should have her fit enough to fire a big shot off the bench, and if she returns as well as she left the four year old filly will absolutely be a major player in this first level allowance grass dash. She owns an affective stalking style and projects to always be within range in the second flight and then have her chance to mow down the leaders when the pressure is turned on. The daughter of Vronsky earned a solid number when graduating over this course and distance last year, retains top rider J. Hernandez, and is nicely priced at 4-1 on the morning line. She, along with the two other contenders listed above, comprise what should be a good gamble in the exactas, trifectas, and in rolling exotic play.
Jeff Siegel’s What You Need to Know – Saratoga – 8/15/24
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Saratoga 1st Race – Post: 1:10 ET. Degree of confidence: B+
Top Selection: 8-Manhattan Twist
Other Contenders: 9-Keepinitreal.
Forecast: This originally appeared to be a much stronger than par New York bred maiden juvenile event but with three morning scratches off the program it has thinned out quite a bit. Manhattan Twist has trained like a decent sort, is bred for speed (Liam’s Map), and has done everything professionally in the morning for T. Pletcher to be fit and ready for a major effort first crack out of the box. He’s displayed good quickness in his gate drills and a certain degree of relentlessness that gives us confidence he can finish the job when put to pressure in the lane. Assuming he breaks with his field, the $150,000 weanling purchase should find himself in an ideal pace forcing/pressing position and then have every chance to exert his superiority. Keepinitreal should be included somewhere on your ticket as well – he’s been given a solid foundation by C. Brown and definitely has some ability – but the main push goes to Manhattan Twist in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Saratoga 6th race – Post: 4:03 ET. Degree of confidence: B
Top Selection: Never Really Know (Ire)
Other Contenders: none.
Forecast: Never Really Know (Ire) flashed good speed in her turf sprint debut here last month before feeling the pressure inside the furlong pole and weakening late, not bad try under the circumstances, and is likely to be fitter and tighter for today’s second career outing. In a field filled with first time starters – none of whom have been impressive in the morning – this daughter of No Nay Never lands a cozy inside draw and projects to be the speed of the speed. If she can shake loose early in this inner turf miler, the N. Casse-trained filly could wire the field, so at 9/2 on the morning line in a below standard race for the level, let’s use her as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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