JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL PRIME PLAYS
Saturday, June 29, 2024
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 7th RACE – POST: 3:52 ET
Prime Play: 5-Win for the Money (9/2)
Forecast: We’re not entirely sure that Win for the Money can duplicate the quality of his highly rated win in a listed stakes at Gulfstream Park last month but in his present form we wouldn’t be surprised if he extends his winning streak to three in this year’s edition of the Wise Dan S.-G3. The rapidly developing son of Mohaymen earned a career top 102 Beyer speed figure in victory while benefitting from a perfect, pace stalking trip, and in a race that projects to have a modest early pace the five-year-old gelding is likely to enjoy a similar journey and have every chance to upset the even money morning line favorite, Ottoman Fleet (GB), who is proven at this level but not necessarily faster on numbers. Based on the discrepancy in price, ‘Money is worth a reasonable gamble at or around 9/2.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 8th RACE – POST: 4:25 ET
Prime Play: 2-Shotgun Hottie (4-1)
Forecast: Scylla deserves the favorite’s role in this year’s renewal of the Fleur de Lis S.-G2 over nine furlongs on dirt, having won four of six career starts including three for three over the local main track, most recently the Shawnee S.-G3 over this track and distance earlier this month. But at 6/5 on the morning line, she won’t offer much wagering value facing her sternest assignment ever, so let’s pivot to the tough-as-nails older mare Shotgun Hottie, listed at a much more enticing 4-1 on the morning line. Fresh from a career top performance in a nearly six length score in the Alaire DuPont Distaff Stakes at Pimlico last month, the daughter of Gun Runner always has been just a cut below the best in her division but based on her recent dominating score she’s never been better and is facing a group her best race can handle. With a lovely second flight, stalking style that will provide every chance for a repeat win, the Cherie DeVaux-trained five-year-old offers an excellent money making opportunity in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 9th RACE – POST 4:58 ET
Prime Play: 1-Green Light (3-1)
Forecast: At first glance the lightly raced Green Light appears to be ambitiously placed in the listed American Derby after destroying much softer maidens over this course and distance last month in his third career start. But based on numbers and the projected race flow, the son of Hard Spun seems highly likely to leave lower on the tote than his morning line of 3-1 and in fact will be a solid favorite and one to beat. In his maiden score, the R. Brisset-trained sophomore pressed the pace one off the rail to the head of the lane before quickening when given his cue to draw off effortlessly like a good colt in a 10 length blow out. In a race that promises to produce soft early splits, ‘Light should inherit the role as the controlling speed from his good inside draw (or simply settle into a soft stalking spot) and then take it from there.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 12th RACE – POST 6:32 ET
Prime Play: 8-Pipsy (Ire) (7/2)
Forecast: Pipsy (Ire) finished an excellent second in her debut last summer in Ireland behind a subsequent stakes winner while more than seven lengths clear of the rest. She then then reeled off three straight victories, including a listed stakes affair before taking the rest of the year off. She returned to competition in the Soaring Softly S.-G3 in her U.S. debut at Aqueduct last month with a simply mind-boggling performance. The daughter of Kodiac-GB dwelt at the start in the six furlong dash to spot the field a half dozen lengths, but miraculously ran past her rivals with a furious late kick to be up in time like a filly with enormous quality. Despite her last-to-finish performance, the diminutive, quick-actioned filly actually owns a ton of early speed, and if she manages to leave with her company she should be more than capable of wiring the field. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and we’d be thrilled if we could get it.
