May 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Saturday, May 4, 2024
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Scatify; 3-Island Cruiser.
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The Sadler barn holds the aces with Scatify arguably the best of the speed types and Island Cruiser (assuming he’s ridden properly) the most dangerous of the closers. The former has no option but to be sent from the rail and based on our pace projection should be the controlling speed. ‘Cruiser’s best race was when he was held up early and allowed to blast home. Hope they go back to that strategy today.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Cowboy Mike.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Cowboy Mike is starting to get good for Baffert and seems well-placed to extend his winning streak to three. Fresh from earning a career top number against a lesser allowance field in late March, the Smiling Tiger gelding employs an effective stalking style combined with a good late kick and should be able to settle into an ideal early position and have every chance from there. However, at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 5-Queen’s Code; 1-Pioneer Prince.
Backups/savers: 2-Hawker.
Forecast: There are several races on today’s card that we really won’t want to get too involved with. This is one of them. Queen’s Code is the second choice at on the morning line t 5/2 behind Pioneer Prince (8/5) and they could finished one-two in either order. Quite frankly, we don’t trust either one, but in a shallow field the race could easily be dominated by the chalk. ‘Code comes from a cold barn and has so far preferred to finish second (five times) rather than first (once), but he had a right to be a short horse last time out when returning off a long layoff and the stable’s second-off-the-bench stats are reasonably solid. ‘Prince is slow on numbers (they’re shrinking) but he adds blinkers and could improve. Tread lightly here.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Antonsen
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Antonsen has burned money in his last pair but gets another chance at the same maiden $50,000 level and should graduate eventually, maybe even today. He’s got only one way to go from the rail, on the front end for as far as he can. He really should be able to outrun this modest group, but at 6/5 on the morning line it’s almost not worth the bother.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Notime for Squalls
Backups/savers: 6-Ok Rose; 8-Orderly Transition (GB).
Forecast: There are several reasons for Notime for Squalls to step forward in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. This will be her first try in a seller, her first around two turns (with the prerequisite two recent sprints to have her sharp), the benefit of the rail draw which ensures a ground-saving trip, and a recent training track breeze that caught the eye. She’s still trying to find her proper level, but if she improves at all, she should fit nicely against this group. In a race that has several contenders with a winning chance, let’s try a gamble on this M. Glatt-trained filly with the expectation that she’ll enjoy at this longer trip.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 ET Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Dancing Dana 2-Woodbine Way; 6-Wrong Turn Cupid.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Dancing Dana is cozily drawn outside and projects to be on the lead or pressing the pace without undue pressure. She has back numbers than can win and has hit the board in five of seven career starts over the local main track. Woodbine Way drops to her lowest level, shows the popular blinkers off angle, tries the main track, and is long overdue for a win. The S. Miyadi-trained mare has never won on dirt but against this group the surface may not matter much. Wrong Turn Cupid has solid form in mixed breed races at Los Alamitos that chart okay in this league. She actually may be the most dependable of the lot.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 5-Planetario (Brz); 6-War At Sea; 3-Gold Phoenix.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This group knows each other well. Whose turn will it be today? Planetario (Brz) chased home Missed the Cut in his last pair but won’t have that one to worry about today. This mile and one quarter distance is his favorite trip, so we’re expecting the South American import to be along in time. War At Sea is racing in sharp form and shows three wins over the local turf track. The son of War Front has never been this far but there’s no reason he won’t handle 10 furlongs. Gold Phoenix was given a run in his seasonal bow when unplaced in the American S.-G3 last month and should get serious today. If he still has it, the six year old gelding will be running on late.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: 6-War On the West; 3-Dance Man; 4-Last Call Paul.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: War On the West is a fresh face in a soft state-bred maiden claiming abbreviated sprint. He’s trained like he has some talent and a little will go a long way against this group, so let’s take a shot in a wide open fray. Dance Man appears to be the best of the known element, for whatever that’s worth. He’s got early speed and should stick better at this distance against this group. Last Call Paul has hit the board in half of his 10 career starts and should be a threat with anything close to his best race, according to his numbers.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Hurricane Way
Backups/savers: 10-British Isles; 12-Indespensable.
Forecast: Hurricane Way was ignored on the tote in his debut (36-1) but really caught the eye with flying home to miss by a nose before galloping out far in front in an extended maiden sprint over the local lawn last month. The jump to a mile and one-eighth is a challenging one, even though he’s bred to run this far, but in a race where most of these have middling form let’s try the fresh face with arguably the most upside at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: 7-Damazio; 6-The Big Cheeseola; 4-Mobe Town.
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll triple this modest $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint and hope that at least one of them fires. Damazio faced much tougher rivals in a race that he surely needed off a long layoff in late March and seems sure to benefit from that tightener today. The J. Mullins-trained gelding shows a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim and should improve enough to pose a serious threat at 7/2 on the morning line. The Big Cheeseola graduated in a soft maiden $50,000 dash last month with a respectable figure and is realistically spotted today in his first race facing winners. If he can turn in two alike, he’ll be right there. Mobe Town is another class dropper that has numbers that make him a major player against this group. He’ll be part of the pace throughout.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 9-Thrumps Dream (Ire); 7-Hennys Crazy Train; 4-Madiha
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for older fillies and mares that has several possibilities. We’ll try to get by using just three, but you should include as many as your budget allows. Thrumps Dream (Ire) just won at this level, was claimed for $50,000, and tries for a repeat for new trainer S. Knapp. She retains J. Hernandez and will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time, but with three wins over the local lawn she looks formidable once again. Hennys Crazy Train, in the frame in each of her last six starts, is another trying a mile and one-eighth for the first time. She’ll be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace throughout, so she will have every chance to get the trip. Madiha, first or second in seven of 14 outings over the Santa Anita lawn, figures to at least get a piece of it again today.
