“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Belmont Bill; 2-Awesome Rhythm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Thirty Four Coup.
Forecast: We’re going to handicap the Thursday opener under the assumption that none of the five also eligible entrants draw in. Belmont Bill continued his ascending form with an authoritative maiden claiming win two-turning over the local lawn earlier this meeting that produced a career top speed figure. He accomplished the victory from off the pace and surely will employ similar tactics in this stater optional claiming grass dash that appears well within his capabilities despite the boost in class. It appears that at age five the son of Oxbow has finally figured things out. Awesome Rhythm is lightly raced and gradually improving. He is most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter and should be heard from late.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Riley G
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Jazzy Boo.
Forecast: Riley G had a right to be a tad short when pressing the pace before weakening late in her first start in a year and should be fitter and stronger today in this main track sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. Two nice breezes since raced, including a bullet half mile in :47 flat (fastest of 29) last week should have her on edge. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Flatter isn’t likely to offer a whole lot of wagering value.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Island Cruiser; 2-Sketchy.
Backups/savers/Underneath: 9-El Rey Rey.
Forecast: Island Cruiser brought $400,000 at the OBS March sale, where the son of Catalina Cruiser previewed in :21 flat, so he obviously has his share of speed. Local works have been solid, so the John Sadler-trained colt looks enticing in this maiden special weight grass sprint for juveniles that seems likely to be won by a newcomer. Sketchy, a half-brother to Grade-1 winner Marley’s Freedom, was purchased at the OBS April Sale for $200,000 despite breezing in a not-particularly-fast :10 2/5. He’s actually pretty nice mover, and as a son of Uncle Mo could be a late developing sort. His local works aren’t bad, so at 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on your ticket.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gypsy Lynn; 5-On Purpose; 2-Barbera.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll go three deep in the fourth race, an extended sprint for $20,000 claiming fillies and mares. Gypsy Lynn projects to be the quickest of the quick and if she can shake loose early without pressure the daughter of Awesome Again may never look back. She has a prior win over the local main track and is realistically dropped in class for the money run. On Purpose has been chasing tougher in all of her recent races and at this level the Vladimir Cerin-trained mare must be considered a major player. An even fourth place performance facing $32,000 sellers at Los Alamitos wasn’t bad in her first start in five months, so a forward move is likely. Barbera has consistent recent form, though she couldn’t seal the deal at 3/5 when claimed at this level two weeks ago. She gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Torrealba and seems likely to settle in the second flight and then have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Cash Equity; 3-Aligato; 7-Tio Magico.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Carmelita’s Man.
Forecast: Cash Equity exits a series of tougher races and returns to his proper level while being reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez. He’s a three time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and should be prominent throughout in a race that projects to have modest early splits. Aligato is winless in five starts this year but his numbers are strong and he’s overdue to break through. He picks up Frankie and should make his presence felt in the final furlong. Tio Magico was a tad disappointing when fifth as the chalk at this level last month in a hot race. Today’s extra furlong should help, so with a repeat of his race before last he should be right there.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Blissterinthesun; 7-Criticism
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato has the two main contenders in this maiden optional claiming extended main track sprint for juvenile fillies. Blissterinthesun was a reasonable runner-up in her debut at Del Mar behind a next-out stakes winner and not much more will be needed to her diploma for a barn that has solid stats with the second time starter angle. She didn’t get much play (27-1) in that race but will be favored today unless her stable mate Criticism turns up a hot item. The latter, a daughter of Blame from the stakes placed dam of the good allowance sprinter (and debut winner) Iron Works, breezed from the gate in a bullet :59 flat at Los Alamitos in late September and seems likely to be highly competitive first crack out of the box.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Golden Again; 2-Don’t Ju Forget
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Golden Age missed at even money when second in a similar state-bred first level allowance event last month, but this turn back from a mile to a Hillside dash should bring out her best performance. She hasn’t sprinted since winning over the local flat course in June, and with patient handling under regular pilot Tiago Pereira the daughter of Paynter should be along in time. Don’t Ju Forget had a rough trip when a troubled fourth in a grass dash at this level last month. This will be her first try down the Hill and her style suggests she should like it. With clear sailing she projects to be a quite dangerous from a second flight, stalking position.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Aventapp
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Aventapp seems well-spotted in this main track sprint for restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming fillies and mares. She has numbers that far exceed par for this level and this class drop to her lowest level ever should make the winning difference. It’s either her or just about anybody else, so let’s take a stand and make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 5/2.
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