“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Dusty Springfield
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Magic Wanderer.
Forecast: Dusty Springfield was well meant in her debut this month but wound up fifth after breaking slowly, racing wide, and then appearing a bit green while in dire need of the experience. We’re expecting a much more professional performance today from the daughter of Grazen, so with top jockey Juan Hernandez riding her back the Phil D’Amato-trained California-bred sophomore should step forward considerably. She’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and is a gamble at or near that price.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Thompson
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Thompson shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern plus the always popular blinkers off angle, so the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding looks very likely to produce a significant forward move in this maiden claiming main track miler for juveniles. The barn has powerful stats with stretch out runners, and with the break in the weights that bug boy Torrealba provides, the son of First Samurai looks solid at 9/5. He’s a win play at or near that price and a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Make It Snow
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Make It Snow actually ran quite well when fourth in the productive Unzip Me Stakes sprinting down the hill earlier this month and today returns to the maiden ranks seeking her diploma. The pedigree suggests she can easily handle the stretch out in trip so there should be no excuses for the daughter of Empire Maker. She’s listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, and we’d take that price in a heartbeat if we could get it at post time.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ice Dancing
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ice Dancing is a first time Lasix user in this second level allowance extended main track dash for fillies and mares in her first outing since winning the Santa Ynez Stakes last January. Successful both sprinting and over a distance of ground, the versatile daughter of Frosted returns with a series of workouts for trainer Richard Mandella that should have her plenty fit and ready. The rail post is of some concern, but in a field without much zip she should have no difficulty as the pace setter or presser, assuming she leaves with her field. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and is likely to go lower as a logical win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Avoir; 7-Blue Oasis.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Avoir has been given a strong foundation of three sprint preps prior to this stretch out around two turns and with a pedigree that suggests she’ll improving over a distance of ground the daughter of More Than Ready seems well spotted to graduate. All three of her outings to date have produced speed figures that are par for this level, so we’ll go with the Peter Miller-trained juvenile filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 2-1. Also worth tossing in is Blue Oasis, a promising daughter of War Front who lost her best chance at the start when stumbling badly in a similar race over this course and distance three weeks ago, yet she still managed to wind up fifth, beaten less than two lengths.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Tiz Tok
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Take Charge Curly; 7-All the King’s Men.
Forecast: Tiz Tok doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler for older horses and should return to his best form after being pitched too high three weeks ago in a hot sprint won by the extremely talented Ghost of Midnight. There isn’t anything remotely as fast as that unbeaten gelding to worry about today, so we anticipate the son of Tiznow will be able to duplicate his sharp runner-up effort at this level at Los Alamitos two races back. We wouldn’t take much less than his morning line of 5/2 but at that price he’ll offer a reasonable amount of value.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Grace Period
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Gimme Mo Baby; 7-Yerwanthere.
Forecast: Grace Period is a fairly decent French invader making her U.S. debut as a first time Lasix user in this first level allowance turf miler for fillies and mares. Stakes placed as a 2-year-old when second to subsequent QE2 Challenge Cup runner-up Lindy, she was in extremely tough in a pair of black type events overseas this year before importation, and under good trainer Leonard Powell’s tutelage the daughter of Creative Cause should go much, much better on this circuit. She attracts Frankie, shows a brief series of sharp recent local drills to have her cranked and ready, and should be capable of outclassing this field for a barn that has enjoyed excellent success with shippers from overseas. We’ll make a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 3-1.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Midnight Love; 3-Eligiio; 8-Tapalo.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Schwarzmeier.
Forecast: Midnight Love showed some ability in a pair abbreviated juvenile sprint races last May when hitting the board despite breaking slowly on both occasions. He returns off a five month vacation with a reasonable series of workouts, and if the son of Midnight Love can step forward even just a little bit this time around (and, hopefully, break with his field), he’ll have a good chance to graduate in this moderate state-bred affair. His morning line of 5-1 seems reasonable. Eligio is back with maidens today after running well in a starter optional claimer at Del Mar in late August. The son of Congrats has three seconds from three starts on his resume and should find a field he can beat soon enough. Tapalo is comfortably drawn outside and has plenty of room to improve after flashing good speed before weakening late in his debut over seven furlongs at Los Alamitos last month. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Bally’s Charm
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Hit the Road.
Forecast: Bally’s Charm ran lesser foes into the ground in a recent fast, highly rated allowance score over this course and distance and similar front runner tactics surely will be employed in this year’s edition of the Lure Stakes. A four time winner over the local lawn and a stakes winner in state-bred company, the son of Roi Charmant tackles open foes today but has speed figures that are good enough for a repeat score despite the obvious raise in class. Two nice recent breezes should tick him over for another major effort, so let’s put him on top in the win pool and play him with confidence in the various rolling exotics.
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