“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Assertive Attitude; 7-Ride Up
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Sippican Shop
Forecast: Assertive Attitude returns as a first time gelding, first time Lasix user in this soft maiden $40,000 sprint and could easily be a better type now than he was last November, when he finished second in a three-runner affair in a straight maiden event. The son of Violence appeared to be laboring over the wet surface after displaying good early speed in his debut, and if he can catch a dry track today he might stick around a long time. Ride Up shortens up and drops into a seller for the first time while landing the cozy outside draw. He doesn’t look as good on paper as his 6/5 morning line might indicate, but his numbers are comparatively strong, and this is his softest task to date.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:50 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Chili Flag; 5-Pleasant Passage
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Chili Flag was visually quite pleasing winning a first level allowance affair at Belmont Park last month while earning a career top number, one that is good enough for a win on the raise in this second level middle distance inner turf event for fillies and mares. She was a useful type last year in France but appears to have a decent sort of future on this side of the pond. Pleasant Passage finished third in her last pair with rising numbers, but she’s a bit of a one-paced grinder and in a race that projects to have soft early fractions she could be caught for speed. We’ll have her on our ticket while reserving the main punch for Chili Flag.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:27 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Citizen K; 6-Agent Creed
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Citizen K and Agent Creed are difficult to separate; each has recent speed figures that are good enough to win, so the race may boil down to which one enjoys the better trip in this state bred second level allowance middle distance turf event. The former is a bit more versatile, having won in gate-to-wire fashion and from off the pace, so from his inside draw the veteran Mizzen Mast gelding should be able to adjust to whatever pace flow develops. ‘Creed lacks tactical speed but on his best day he can turn it on late. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preparing Citizen K on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Built to Last
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: After a couple of months off and exiting a series of tougher starter’s allowance races, Built to Last returns to his claim level in this restricted (nw-2) $40,000 seller, and if he produces his best effort the Chris Englehart-trained son of Freud should be able to regain his winning form. Certainly not one to totally trust (he’s 1-for-15), the four-year-old ridgling nevertheless projects to be on or near the lead from his rail draw, and with speed figures that give him a clear edge he may offer a bit of value at or near his morning line of 7/2.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:33 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Accommodate Eva; 3-Miz Mastery; 8-Hayes Bay
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Leslie’s Loot.
Forecast: This maiden sprint for juvenile fillies is restricted to those that brought or were bought back for $50,000 in their most recent auction. It’s a guessing game, to be sure, so tread lightly. Accommodate Eva vans up from Churchill Downs to take advantage of the condition (not to mention the $83,000 purse) and we suspect is here to win. The daughter of Munnings shows some decent workout clocking’s and should be plenty fit, so ion a wide open affair at 5-1 on the morning line she seems as good as any. Miz Mastery looks to have breezed in decent style (we have no video on her) and may fit with these. Ay 6-1 on the morning line she offers a price chance. Hayes Bay brought $75,000 through the ring as a yearling (as shown in the DRF) but actually was bought back for $42,000 at the subsequent OBS April sale (where she previewed in an ordinary 10 3/5 seconds), which makes her eligible for the race. Her local drills aren’t terrible, so at 10-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:06 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ski Patrol; 8-Sugar Gray Leonard; 6-Ignited.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-King James.
Forecast: We’ll spread the sixth race, a starter allowance ($50,000) turf sprint for older horses that offers several possibilities. Ski Patrol makes his first start since being claimed by Linda Rice for this price (26% with this angle) and has numbers that can win at this level. A closing second over a mile last month, the son of Pioneerof the Nile turns back in trip and actually will be sprinting for the first time in his 10th career outing. He’ll be rolling late. Sugar Gray Leonard, in the frame in his last pair at this level, so far has preferred to run second or third (six times) rather than win (once) but he’s a fit on figures and retains Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ignited is a Laurel Park invader with good, consistent form but he’s a bit light in the speed figure department, so improvement will be necessary. The veteran Into Mischief gelding has enough tactical speed to be in the right spot at the right if good enough.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:39 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Notinamillionyears; 1-Tangential; 7-Mirabella
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Mom’s Right.
Forecast: Notinamillionyears, a $450,000 yearling at Keeneland, finally makes it to the post and has looked the part of a nice sort in morning drills leading up to the mile turf affair for older maiden fillies and mares. The daughter of No Nay Never is one of two entrants from the Chad Brown stable, the other being Tangential, who went last seen was missing by a neck in a good maiden juvenile grass router at Aqueduct last November. Her comeback drills at Monmouth Park look solid and should have her fit enough to return as well as she left. Mirabella is gradually improving with racing, most recently finishing second after striking the front in mid-stretch before being worn down late in a maiden router at Monmouth Park last month. With another forward move, she’ll be right there.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:14 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Giroovin; 4-Clubhouse; 5-Win for Gold
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Kushan Bridge
Forecast: Here’s a difficult affair offering a few chances. Giroovin looked solid winning a $25,000 open sprint for 3-year-olds only over this track and distance last month and is protected on the raise for solid barn but one that has yet to register a win at this meeting. The son of Girvin earned a career top speed figure in that race and if he duplicate that outing today he can win again. Clubhouse crushed a softer restricted (nw2) $25,000 field here eight days ago and wheeled back on short rest by a low percentage outfit following a claim from Todd Pletcher in this starter’s allowance ($50,000) affair. His numbers make him competitive at this level, but the real question is, can the son of Speightstown run as well off the former conditioner’s training or will he crash and burn for Gustavo Rodriguez, he of the seven percent win rate this year and just 12% with the first-off-the-claim angle. Who knows? Win for Gold has plenty of zip but always seems to feel the heat in the final sixteenth. He took a clear lead into the lane when facing similar foes last month but couldn’t find anything extra under pressure in the final sixteenth and wound up a weakening second. He’ll take them as far as he can.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:46 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ramblin’ Wreck; 6-Let’s Go Big Blue
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ramblin’ Wreck missed at odds-on in a similar two turn stakes for state-bred sophomores but will have every chance to make amends from his good inside draw. He may have been a victim of an overconfident ride last time out when permitting the controlling speed in the race to get very brave through slow splits, but we suspect Irad Ortiz, Jr. won’t let that happen again. Let’s Go Big Blue has rising speed figures and earned a career top number when winning a state-bred stakes over the local lawn earlier this month. With a similar effort today, the son of Cairo Prince can be a major threat right back,
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Street Rod
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Screw Loose; 7-Laurel Valley.
Forecast: Street Rod looks interesting in the Thursday nightcap, an abbreviated turf sprint for maiden state-bred older horses. The son of War Dancer was entered for grass (for which he is bred) in his debut but the race was transferred to the main track, and he wound up fifth while appearing to struggle a bit with the surface. Hopefully, he’ll get his chance on the sod today. A recent bullet half mile breeze (:47 flat, fastest of 52) certainly catches the eye, and with the switch to Ricardo Santana, Jr., and the addition of Lasix we’re expecting to see a vastly improved performance. Let’s make him a win play at or near his morning line of 9/2.
