“What You Need to Know” – Saratoga
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Permed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Thursday opener appears to be one of the weaker maiden special weight juvenile turf sprints so far this season. We’ll focus on Permed, second in both of her previous starts, most recently with a fair to moderate performance when favored at Belmont Park last month. She adds blinkers for trainer Todd Pletcher and rates top billing by default, as the others with prior races don’t inspire the first timers don’t look like much.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: State bred maiden claiming older fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in today’s second race, another woefully weak affair in which nothing would surprise. Simply put, the race is inscrutable and is best left alone.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Born a Gambler; 1-Tallahatchiebridge
Backups/savers/Underneath: 3-More Than Work.
Forecast: Born a Gambler takes a realistic class drop after finding starter allowance foes a bit out of his range in his first start following a clever score for restricted (nw-2) $50,000 two runs back at Belmont Park. His numbers have been solid and consistent, so at this level the Michael Maker-trained gelding should have his chance to regain his winning form. Tallahatchiebridge has been away since February and shows up in a seller for the first time, not normally considered to be a healthy pattern but acceptable from Saffie Joseph, Jr., who has excellent stats with layoff runners and is usually fairly aggressive when spotting his runners. “Win Rider” Tyler Gaffalione returns, another positive factor. From his rail draw the son of Will Take George looks like a serious player at 7/2 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): Dust Devil; 1-Two Thirty Five
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Dust Devil moves up a notch following a $20,000 claim by trainer John Toscano, who has been strong with this maneuver from limited opportunities. First or second in his last three starts including a clever score last month over this track and distance, the veteran Tapiture gelding has benefitted from a nicely spaced schedule that should have him ready for another strong effort, though at 6/5 on the morning line there’s little wagering value to be found. <>Two Thirty Five is another making his first start since being haltered (out of the same race Dust Devil exits) and should be a dangerous pace factor from his inside draw. The new trainer (Robert Klesaris) has solid stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, and it wouldn’t take much improvement from the Stay Thirsty gelding, who was fourth after cutting out the fractions last time out, to be a major player throughout.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Miss d’Oro Cherie; 1-Snarky
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Book of Wisdom.
Forecast: Miss d’Or Cherie smoked a quarter of a mile in 20 3/5 at the OBS April sale, the fastest for the distance at the entire sale. She’s done some very good work preparing for this race since arriving in New York and is clearly a filly with considerable promise. Drawn comfortably outside in this New York-bred juvenile sprint, the Christophe Clement-trained daughter of Bolt d’Oro looks extremely live at 7/2 on the morning line. Snarky is another first timer worth considering on your ticket. She was best of a team in a nice gate drill last month – see workout – and is certain to be a factor if she leaves cleanly from the rail.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Walstib; 8-Khanate; 3-Le Dom Bro
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Restricted (must have sold or been bought back for $50,000 at auction) maiden 2-year-olds sprint six furlongs in this main track dash. Walstib is a first timer from the Ken McPeek barn with a decent series of drills that should have him have him ready in a race containing no apparent world beaters. A gate drill last month in :48 1/5 – see workout – while much the best of a team) really caught the eye but a subsequent scheduled start (July 20) never happened due to a late gate scratch, and he didn’t work back for 10 days. The son of Unified is one of several possibilities in an open fray. Khanate vans up from Monmouth Park, where he was prepared for this race with a series of useful drills that indicate at least some ability. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt lands Flavian Prat and looks to be player. Le Dom Bro has the benefit of a couple of prior runs in Florida, though he was disappointing in his last start (at even money) when a no excuse runner-up in a moderate affair. However, his speed figures are solid and make him a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): -2-Olkovskha/1a-2-b-No Show Sammy Jo; 1-Idea Generation
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Alpha Belle; 5-My Lion.
Forecast: Olkovskha was somewhat victimized by a lack of pace when sixth of 10 in her U.S. debut at Belmont Park last month. She had decent form last year in France, so with any kind of forward move the Graham Motion-trained import should be highly competitive in this moderate first level allowance affair restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Stable mate No Show Sammy adds strength to the entry following a pleasing maiden score in her second career start in late June. Numbers wise, she’s a fit with these and with plenty of room to improve the English-bred filly could easily prove to be the best of the lot. Idea Generation is a one-paced grinding type who was a bit exposed when a well-beaten second as the favorite in a similar allowance turf affair at Belmont Park last month in her first start since November. This nine furlong distance should be more to her liking, so we’ll give the Chad Brown-trained colt a reasonable look at 4-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Magical Ways; 9-Pine Valley; 5-Moving Pictures
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Magical Ways plummets in class following a pair of disastrous runs in starter allowance company, so his current condition is questionable, but at this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 level the David Jacobson colt can wire the field at this extended sprint distance with a repeat of his third race back, a sharp maiden claiming score at the Big A last spring. Pine Valley is guaranteed an ideal trip from his comfortable outside draw and on his best day the Maclean’s Music gelding will be a major player while dropping to his lowest level ever. Moving Pictures returns to his claim level and is another that should improve with the class drop. He’s slower on numbers than our top pick but looks like the most dangerous of the late threats.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Unleash the Power; 11-Kingfish Stevens; 3-Front Man
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: There’s not much to work with here. Unleash the Power shows gradually rising speed figures and a decent runner-up effort in a similar starter allowance ($50,000) affair over the local lawn last month. The concern is his apparent lack of a winning punch, but the other main contenders appear to be in the same boat. Kingfish Stevens and Front Man, three-four finishers in the same race ‘Power exits, won’t need to improve much to step forward and win.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Kasimba; 7-Insanity It Seems
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Kasimba has finished second in all four career starts but may be ready to finally graduate after earning a career top speed figure when well clear of the rest in a turf sprint for maiden $40,000 at Belmont Park last month. The Kantharos gelding projects to be the quickest in the field and at this abbreviated sprint distance may be capable of sticking it out. Insanity It Seems won his only start at Monmouth a year ago July but had to give the purse back due to a bad test. The son of Tale of the Cat returns in a seller – not a sign of confidence – but trainer Wesley Ward hits at 25% with layoff runners so at this gelding’s stage of his career this is where the trainer thinks he belongs.
