“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Man On the Moon; 3-Mike Operator
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Man On the Moon is a Gulfstream Park invader seeking valuable ship-and-win bonus money while returning to his claim level. The Bobb Hess, Jr.-trained gelding shows a prior win over the Del Mar main track and a bullet blowout over the local surface six days ago. He’s the logical top pick. Mike Operator won his last pair during the spring, including a $12,500 miler at Santa Anita, but has been away for two months and returns at the bottom. Obviously, this is not a healthy pattern but he’s a reasonable contender, nonetheless.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Capo Sorella; 4-Outer Sunset; 9-Miss Pixy Stix
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-American Tsunami.
Forecast: Here’s a wide open maiden claiming juvenile filly sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic single. Capo Sorella has displayed enough early speed in morning drills to make her a major player – perhaps even the one to beat – for a barn whose first timers often run better than they work. She’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth a gamble at that price. Outer Sunset chased tougher straight maidens at Pleasanton in her debut and wasn’t beaten too badly. Against this group, the Bill McLean-trained daughter of Accelerate should be quite competitive at 5-1 on the morning line. Miss Pixy Stix invades from Florida after failing to land a blow when facing maiden special weight foes. She adds blinkers, and that combined with a class drop makes her a “must use.”
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RACE 3: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Anywho; 4-My Destiny
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Anywho) is back sprinting where she’s probably most comfortable and the speedy sophomore filly should regain her winning form with the return to the conditioned allowance ranks. The main issue is her rail post. Inside speed was a death during the first three days of the season and it remains to be seen if the bias will carry over to this week. My Destiny projects to enjoy an ideal second flight trip outside and have every chance should our top pick get mired down in the quicksand.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Unfaithful Ways; 3-Musical Rhapsody
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Myfavoritedaughter.
Forecast: Unfaithful Ways knows how to win races (she’s 4-for-12), shows a prior score over the De Mar turf course, and just earned a career top speed figure when winning an optional claiming grass miler at Santa Anita last month. She’s unproven at this mini marathon trip but in her present form we’ll gamble that she will be able to handle the distance. Musical Rhapsody was a genuine stayer in Ireland and earned Racing Post ratings that make her a fit in this first level allowance affair. She’s also a first time Lasix user for a barn that excels with European imports and is deserved morning line favorite at 2-1. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-U R Pressed; 4-Warrior Red
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Big Gun, 10-Anthony’s Best.
Forecast: U R Pressed looks the best on paper in this bottom rung $20,000 maiden claiming sprint for older horses. In the frame in his last pair but away since December, the Brody’s Cause gelding has low percentage connections but numbers from last year that can win and a bullet gate work (:47hg, fastest of 44) seven days ago to have him on edge. Warrior Red adds blinkers for the first time and based on speed figures in the one to fear most. He gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Alsagoor and projects to inherit a good stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Devil Moon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Devil Moon has improved considerably of late and a repeat of either one of his last two starts should be good enough to beat this starter allowance field sprinting on turf. The Malibu Moon gelding lands the favorable rail and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Let’s take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ceiling Crusher
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ceiling Crusher is undefeated in four starts, the last two wins in state-bred stakes company by a combined 32 and one-half lengths. She can regress considerably and still win, but at a no-value price. You can use her as a free bingo space in rolling exotic play and better yet just pass the race.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Annie’s Hope; 8-Idessia
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 10-Strange Addiction
Forecast: Annie’s Hope lands a good spot to graduate. Off slowly and bit rank early in a similar turf miler for maiden state-bred fillies and mares at Santa Anita last month, she stayed on as best she before winding up second while well clear of the rest in an effort that should be good enough to handle this field. Idessia has a race two back at this trip that charts well and should be included on your main ticket. The Phil D’Amato-trained daughter of Smiling Tiger appears to be the most dangerous of the closing types.
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