July 22, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Del Mar
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Wyfire; 2-Strike That
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Wyfire plummets in class and returns to a dirt track that he’s won on in the past. The Mark Glatt-trained gelding has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and speed figures that are good enough to win at this level. He also gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Aguilar, so let’s hope the class drop is legit and not simply one to entice a claim. Strike That is another with proven winning form over the Del Mar main track. Now in the Steve Knapp barn following a $20,000 claim in late May, the veteran gelding returns for the same price following a two month layoff, so, like our top pick, his condition is something of a question mark. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics but it’s a shaky proposition, so if you feel the need to include a few more, go right ahead.
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RACE 2: Post: 2:34 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Soul of Midnight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Jam Session.
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a $16,000 restricted (nw-2) extended sprint for older horses. Soul of Midnight found starters allowance foes out of his reach, so this sharp drop in class is warranted. The Dean Pederson-trained son of Straight Fire earned a speed figure when breaking his maiden three races back that can win at this level, and in a field without much early zip he should be on or near the lead throughout. Jam Session is the one to fear most. He was fairly well regarded earlier this year but clearly is being culled from the stable after finishing second as the favorite in a $25,000 affair at Los Alamitos in late June. He projects as a strong pace factor and may get brave against this bunch.
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RACE 3: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Ice Storm; 13-Upright; 8-Len’s Luck
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ice Storm is a 10-race maiden and not one to trust, but in this bottom-rung $20,000 maiden claimer the Frosted gelding gets top billing by default. He was beaten a neck when second in a similar affair at Santa Anita while well clear of the rest, including a next out winner, and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough. Upright hits rock bottom and may have found his friends, and although he was fortunate to draw into the race from the also-eligible list he still must leave from the extreme outside post, no bargain going a mile. He has competitive grass numbers there’s no guarantee he’ll run similarly in his first try on dirt. Len’s Luck is re-equipped with blinkers after finishing third at this level at Los Alamitos after some self-caused early trouble. He should be able to at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 4: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Mrs. Astor; 9-Carole Lombard
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 1-Ruby Nell.
Forecast: Mrs. Astor was graded stakes placed on turf in Kentucky and earned a career top number in her most recent outing when a respectable third in the Regret Stakes-G3. She lacks tactical speed, but with some help up front the daughter of Lookin At Lucky may be able to produce a winning late kick. Carole Lombard was a stakes winner on grass up north in April and then was out of her element on dirt when far back in the Melair Stakes at Santa Anita. The daughter of Grazen broke her maiden over the local lawn last November and should fire another good shot, though she’s slightly slower on speed figures than our top pick.
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RACE 5: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Conquest Celsius; 10-Borntostaythirsty.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Raising Silver.
Forecast: The newcomers look ordinary so it might finally be graduation day for Conquest Celsius, who makes her fourth career outing with modest but rising speed figures after getting nosed out in a similar California-bred dash at Los Alamitos earlier this month. She’ll likely display good early speed and have every chance in a race lacking in closers. Borntostaythirsty, in the frame in all three starts, didn’t put up much fight when outrun by the heavily backed Pushiness last time out but at least she saved second money. This is an easier bunch and thus makes the daughter of Stay Thirsty the likely choice and one to beat. We’ll try to get by using just these two on the main ticket, but neither are trustworthy, so nothing would surprise us.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Moose Mitchell; 5-Escape Route; 3-Principe Carlo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This is one of the tougher first level allowance sprints you’ll ever see on this circuit. Moose Mitchell has turned into a monster based on his last two starts, easy wins with huge speed figures while employing a pace-stalking strategy. In his present form, the son of Danzing Candy shouldn’t have any real trouble extended his winning streak to three. Additionally, he’s a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track, so we’re expecting his Santa Anita form to carry over nicely. Escape Route is another with sharp recent speed figures and proven form over the local main track, having finished no worse than second in four prior starts at Del Mar. He’s a first-time gelding for trainer Mark Glatt making his first start since last September, but he’s won fresh in the past and shows a strong series of recent drills that should have him fit and ready. Principe Carlo likewise is launching a comeback, having been away since last August. He’s a three time winner at Del Mar with a work tab that is acceptable, and he was competitive in graded stakes sprints last year while earning numbers that make him a strong fit against this group.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Warrens Candy Girl; 7-Canoodling; 12-Honey Pants; 2-Very Scary
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Ascendancy; 14-Symphony Perfect.
Forecast: This year’s edition of the Osunitas Stakes over a mile for fillies and mares in a complete grass grab bag with tons of early speed that should allow the closers to have their shot, assuming they can negotiate a decent trip through all the traffic. Warrens Candy Girl is a four time winner over the Del Mar lawn but is one of those deep closers that will need luck to secure a clear path from the quarter pole home. We do know that she’s good enough to tag the speed if everything goes right. Canoodling and the poorly drawn Honey Pants have recent form that make them dangerous but aren’t guaranteed good trips due to their pace-pressing running style. Either one could win or wind up nowhere. Very Scary is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her two-hole post and has numbers against tougher graded stakes competition earlier this year that make her dangerous.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Dua; 1-Ashley; 6-Hope Road
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: You wouldn’t think that a daughter of Arrogate – in this case Dua – would be a likely candidate to win at first asking over five furlongs, but this Bob Baffert-trained filly has trained very much like the Real McCoy. She’s plenty fit and appears to have excellent speed – View Workout Video – though she’s never really been asked to show it. Ashley brought $400,00 at the OBS April Sale after breezing a furlong in :10 flat and looking very much like a quick-auctioned, win early type. Her local works have been slow and easy – View Workout Video – but make no mistake, this daughter of Into Mischief has plenty of zip. If she leaves cleanly from the rail, the John Shirreffs-trained juvenile will have a strong say in the outcome, for sure. Hope Road and Mocha Grande have been workmates leading up to this race, with ‘Road appearing the better of the two – View Workout Video – although both have ability. The daughter of Quality Road was produced by the high class sprinting mare Marley’s Freedom and looks to have plenty of her mother’s raw talent. At 8-1 on the morning line, you absolutely have to use her.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Anisette
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Ancient Peace; 6-Spicybug; 11-Wed.
Forecast: We loved the West Coast debut win by the English invader Anisette and based on the manner in which she quickened through the pack after a poor start we expect her to handle this tougher assignment with any kind of good racing luck. With a full field guaranteed in this year’s renewal of the San Clemente Stakes, traffic may be an issue, but in a race absolutely loaded with early speed, the Leonard Powell-trained sophomore should have her chance to blast home again and tag the leaders close home. In a race like this, where the outcome could easily be determined by trips and trouble, you have to use a few others to protect, so we’ll spread underneath while reserving the main punch for this English-bred filly.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:35 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Dr. No No; 5-Capo Luigi; 9-Donnie the Chiro
Backups/savers: 1-Potito.
Forecast: Dr. No No has trained like a fast colt and certainly is bred to be one (Smiling Tiger), so in an open fray for state-bred juveniles the Brian Koriner-trained colt rates top billing despite his 10-hole draw in this five furlong dash. A :46 4/5 gate drill in late June points him out, as does a :59 1/5 bullet move 14 days ago. Capo Luigi had something of a nightmarish trip in his debut at Golden Gate Fields (off slowly, very wide from the far turn to the wire) but stayed on with courage through the lane to wind up a fairly promising third. With that race behind him and with better racing luck today, the son of Dads Cap should be quite competitive. Donnie the Chiro has put together a solid work tab at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller. He could come up a hot item, so we’ll toss him in.
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RACE 11: Post: 7:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Vancougar
Backups/savers: 1-Sarwar; 9-Tio Magico.
Forecast: Vancougar is improving with racing, has solid speed figures, and will be making his first start around two turns. It’s entirely possible that he’ll leave his previous form behind with this stretch out in trip, and with a series of sharp recent workouts that indicate he’s ready to step forward again for trainer Jeff Mullins he offers an excellent wagering opportunity at 8-1 on the morning line. Regular rider Hector Berrios stays aboard, and we assume he preferred him over Sarwar, another logical contender in the race.
