June 17, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Agency; 7-Horace Mann
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Agency has been away since competing in (and placing in) graded stakes company last summer at Del Mar and returns in a realistic spot for trainer Mark Glatt in this first level allowance Hillside turf sprint with a series of workouts that should have him plenty fit. We know he can run well fresh – he was a debut winner here last year – and after displaying real promise last summer the son of Bolt d’Oro may be able to outclass this group for a barn that has solid stats with the layoff angle. The first time Lasix user offers wagering value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics at or near his morning line of 5-1. Horace Mann is another making his sophomore debut after showing good ability in a three race juvenile campaign. A winner on grass when facing a strong group of maidens at a mile over the local lawn last fall, the son of Twirling Candy returns for trainer Phil D’Amato as a first time Lasix user in his first career outing in a sprint. His work tab at Los Alamitos looks moderate, but this stable boasts superior stats with returnees, so we’re expecting this talented colt will be fit enough to produce a competitive effort. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Agency.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Run for My Honey; 2-Ta Ta for Now
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares over the extended sprint distance of seven furlongs looks treacherous, so best advice is to tread lightly. Run for My Honey is just 1-for-16 and clearly not one to trust, but she did finish second in a similar affair over a mile last month and this turn back in trip won’t bother her in the least. Despite the fact that she has speed figures that have been consistently 10 points slower than par for this level, the daughter of Orb rates top billing by default. Ta Ta For Now drops to her lowest level ever, and while her only win (in four starts) came at Turf Paradise routing on turf in her debut, she is less exposed than the others and should be reasonably competitive. How she will perform on dirt is anybody’s guess. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics but without any degree of confidence.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Crazy Hot
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Crazy Hot hid from maidens in her debut last month, making the pace quickly and then widening at will to earn a strong speed figure in her more than 10 length romp. The daughter of Goldencents is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s renewal of the Fasig-Tipton Debutante, and anything close to her first outing should be more than good enough for a repeat score while facing just four rivals, two of which are slow working first time starters. She’s a no value, short priced, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Freedom Lass; 5-Shared Future
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Freshened since December and making her first start for high percentage trainer Phil D’Amato, Freedom Lass has much in her favor in this starter optional claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. A two-time winner over the local lawn and with a strong, healthy series of training track drills that should have her plenty fit, the veteran 6-year-old projects to inherit and comfortable second flight, stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. She’s never has a massive turn of foot, but from her comfortable inside draw she is almost guaranteed an ideal, trouble-free journey. Shared Future is worth including on your ticket as well. A close fifth in a tougher $80,000 optional claimer over this course and distance in mid-April, she has been given a bit of a freshening and could produce a top effort under these conditions. The daughter of Twirling Candy switches to Umberto Rispoli, one of the barn’s “go to” riders, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Deservedly; 4-Book Smart; 2-Devil Be Me
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Deservedly turns back to a sprint in this starter optional claimer and based on his current consistency the Mark Glatt-trained gelding rates the edge in a competitive affair for the level. First or second in four of seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Nyquist retains regular rider Kent Desormeaux and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Book Smart figures to provide the most pace pressure to our top pick and has back numbers make him dangerous. He’s a first-off-the-claim play for trainer Tim Yakteen (very strong stats with this angle), and though beaten at 4/5 in his most recent outing he’s protected by his new connections in a sign of confidence and seems likely to step forward. Devil Be Me returned off a long layoff to win a state-bred maiden special weight sprint in clever fashion last month, and although a forward move will be required to win right back the lightly raced Grazen gelding could have it in him. Trainer Phil D’Amato hits at a strong 21% with repeat winners, and with a good pace-stalking style that fits this extended sprint distance, the lightly raced 5-year-old is a “must use.”
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RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Lulu Lemon Drop; 2-Candy on Top
Backups/savers: 4-The Flying Pharoah; 3-Viewers Discretion.
Forecast: There are too many question marks to have any kind of conviction in this grass grab bag for maiden $50,000 claiming fillies and mares over a mile, so perhaps the best strategy is to spread the race and hope for a decent price. Lulu Lemon Drops shows up in a seller for the first time and at this level the Peter Miller-trained daughter of Long On Value seems certain to display improvement. Sixth in a tougher straight maiden affair over this course and distance last time out, she is reunited with top jockey Juan Hernandez and projects to settle just off the pace and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. On pure numbers, she’s the one to beat. Candy On Top also shows the maiden to maiden claiming class drop for the first time and is another that is a logical win candidate in a weak affair despite having had 13 previous outings. The epitome of a one-paced grinder, she has numbers that make her dangerous and a cozy inside draw that should produce a soft, ground-saving trip. Trainer Tim Yakteen has two entrants that are worth considering. The Flying Pharoah makes her first start since last summer after displaying some ability in the Midwest and should be competitive at this level on this circuit, while Viewers Discretion, claimed for $20,000 last time out, adds Lasix for the first time while seeking some of that valuable ship and win money and projects to be forward placed throughout. She is probably better than her morning of 12-1 indicates.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Mirahmadi
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Mirahmadi has been all the rage in the morning while preparing for his racing debut, and this highly regarded son of Into Mischief seems likely to justify his role as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this year’s edition of the Fasig-Tipton Futurity. Comfortably drawn outside, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Into Mischief was purchased as a yearling for more than $1 million and is certain to be played off the board due to a work tab that indicates he’s half-past fit and ready. He’s a no-value, highly logical, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-King Apollo; 6-Cherubic Factor
Backups/savers: 1-Jack Sixpack
Forecast: Here’s a strong and competitive extended turf sprint for first level allowance older horses. King Apollo seemed home free in a similar affair down the hill last month but was nailed late after appearing to idle a bit after making the lead in mid-stretch. Most effective when held up early, he requires a well-timed move and if produced late should be able to manufacture a winning kick. Additionally, he’s consistently performed well over the flat course, so we’re expecting another top performance by the Kristin Mulhall-trained gelding. Cherubic Factor, third in the same race our top pick exits, didn’t get the best of runs after being mired in traffic midway and probably should have finished closer. With clear sailing today, this three time local turf winner warrants a legitimate look. Jack Sixpack can be expected to enjoy a ground-saving, stalking trip, and while he’s a tad shy in the speed figure department, the son of Bluegrass Cat has room to improve after a nearly three month vacation and projects to earn at least a piece of it.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Big Baby; 5-Amdy Can You Hear Me
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Big Baby was victimized by his rail post in his debut last month and wasn’t able to show his best form, but with that race behind him, a more favorable draw, and a couple of sharp recent workouts, the son of Mr. Big has an excellent chance to produce significant improvement in this state-bred main track sprint for older horses. Bug boy Aguilar stays aboard for trainer Mark Glatt, who shows solid stats with the second-time starter angle, so at a lucrative 15-1 on the morning line there’s a real chance for an upset in fairly wide open affair. Andy Can You Hear Me overcame early trouble to rally with courage in a promising debut runner-up performance in the same race our top pick exits. He’s the likely choice and one to beat for trainer Jeff Mullins, whose 26% win rate with second timers is borderline superior.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Irish Heatwave; 7-Big Bet Jafinsafa
Backups/savers: 1-Oubabe.
Forecast: Irish Heatwave just won a similar state-bred first level allowance optional claiming turf miler in game style and should fire a similar shot over a turf course that has produced a total of five victories during his long and productive career. He’s carrying the same 126 lbs. he toted last time out, so if the Mike Puype-trained gelding can turn in two alike the son of Unusual Heat definitely has a real chance to score right back. The stretch running Big Bet Jafinsafa makes his first start on grass after graduating from state bred company over this distance on the main rack. He’s a fit on numbers and will be dangerous if he leaves with his company for the first time in his third career start. Oubabe is guaranteed an ideal, second flight, ground-saving trip, and although he’s zero-for-eight lifetime over the Santa Anita turf course the John Sadler-trained colt has a realistic chance to finally break on through.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Keychain Girl; 2-Doris Mae; 7-Pequena Tormenta
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Keychain Girl has been away since last summer but if she returns as well as she left the Mark Glatt-trained filly should be highly competitive in this first level allowance abbreviated main track sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Practical Joy must leave sharply from her rail draw, but with a clean break she should be able to gain a favorable pace stalking, ground-saving early position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. The barn has solid stats with the layoff angle and bug boy Aguilar has ridden a lot of live runners for this stable at this meeting. Doris Mae was a sharp winner over this main track two runs back but was flat and unplaced as the favorite in a tougher grass sprint in her most recent outing. Back at her proper level and returning to dirt, the daughter of Dads Cap must be given a chance to return to form under these conditions. Pequena Tormenta had little behind her in an 11 length starter optional claiming score last time out while earning by far a career top number in her first start since joining the Jeff Mullins barn. Shortening up from seven furlongs to five and one-half, the daughter of Dialed in will have a big look if she can run back to that romping score in this stronger, more competitive affair.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Runninwiththeboyz; 5-Albayaader
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Runninwiththeboyz has won three of four career starts over the local lawn but settled for second money when earning a career top speed figure in her most recent outing over the Hillside Course in early March. Freshened and showing a steady, heathy series of workouts for her first outing in more than three months, the Jeff Mullins-trained filly is a genuine and versatile type that can be effective on the lead going long or from off the pace going short. Regular pilot Hector Berrios stays aboard and knows her well. Albayaader is worth including on your ticket as well. A winner of three of her last four starts when facing softer starter allowance and maiden claiming foes, the Irish-bred filly shows a pattern of rising speed figures, and with another forward move in her first try down the Hill she can be in the fray close home.
