May 28, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-King’s River Knight
Backups/savers: 3-None Above the Law.
Forecast: Kings River Knight was nailed on the line in the Sensational Star Stakes down the hill last time out in a strong effort that earned a career top speed figure. The lightly raced gelding returns to the flat course, stretches out to a mile, and projects as the controlling speed from his favorable rail post in this year’s edition of the Crystal Water Stakes for older state-bred runners. The John Sadler-trained son of Acclamation is perfect in two starts over this one mile trip, and with the switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider, Juan Hernandez and given the highly favorable trip he’s likely to enjoy we’re expecting anot her significant forward move. At or near his morning line of 2-1 he’s offers excellent value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Grand Tiger; 7-Tizz a Good Thing
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The two main players in this abbreviated main track sprint for state-bred runners are difficult to separate, as both earned identical 65 Beyer speed figures in their racing debut (on grass) when flashing early speed before weakening late to wind up third. Grand Tiger has no option but to bust out and go from the rail and should be fitter and tougher today after staying on well enough in the final furlong as the favorite four weeks ago. The Brian Koriner barn hits at a superb 29% with second timers, so this son of Smiling Tiger likely will be the controlling speed. Tizz a Good Thing is comfortably drawn outside today and probably will employ stalking tactics. The Carla Gaines barn currently is going through a cold spell, but the stable shows solid stats with the second time starter angle and this colt has trained well in the two months since he raced. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Big Bet Jafinsafa
Backups/savers: 1-Austonian.
Forecast: Big Bet Jafinsafa made everybody’s horses to watch list after a much troubled debut earlier this month, as the late developing Mr. Big colt overcame a slow start and severe traffic trouble in the upper stretch to wind up a fast closing third in a race he could have easily won. Today, the Carla Gaines-trained colt stretches out to a distance he’s bred to love, so with clear sailing and even the slightest of forward moves the talented 4-year-old colt should be able to handle this maiden state-bred field. For protection, we’ll include the sprinter-stretching-out Austonian on our ticket as a backup. Disappointing in both of his two starts to date, the son of Smiling Tiger adds blinkers, draws the rail, and almost certainly will try gate-to-wire tactics. Given the projected trip, he may get brave and take this field a long way.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Closing Remarks
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Closing Remarks returns to California-bred company after a series of strong efforts in a series of open graded races that includes a visually pleasing win in the Royal Heroine S.-G2 two runs back. The Carla Gaines-trained mare should find this restricted affair well within her capabilities, and a recent bullet half mile workout on the main track (:46 3/5, fastest of 67) tells us she remains on top of her game. She’s a logical rolling exotic single, though at 6/5 on the morning line she won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:15 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Ceiling Crusher
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Ceiling Crusher will be the shortest priced favorite on the card – we’re thinking 1/5 – based on her unbeaten (in three starts) record and her recent 15 and one-half length romp in the Evening Jewel Stakes against similar state-bred sophomore fillies. The only question is whether she can be just as dominating around two turns, but as a daughter of Mr. Big this stretch out to a mile should not be any issue. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass and watch.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Golden Microphone; 2-Strange Addiction
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Golden Microphone displayed good speed before weakening late to wind up third in her debut on dirt earlier this month while having every right to have needed the race. Back from her home base at Golden Gate Fields, she shortens up a half furlong, switches to grass, and goes for a barn that hits at a strong 20% with the second time starter angle. Against this modest group the daughter of Stanford may be quite capable of wiring the field, so let’s put the Jonathan Wong-trained sophomore filly on top and hope that this time she can see out the trip. Among the newcomers, Strange Addiction is the one to fear most. A rare Cal-bred by Good Magic, she brought $85,000 as a yearling and has done enough in the morning to warrant a good look first crack out of the box. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Bus Buzz
Backups/savers: 5-Handsome Gary
Forecast: Bus Buzz won’t have Kangaroo Court to deal with today, so if he breaks well from the rail the speedy son of Stay Thirsty should be hard to beat, though it must be noted that he’s facing older, seasoned rivals for the first time and also other speed types that can apply strong pressure right from the bell. At 6/5 on the morning line, the Steve Knapp-trained gelding certainly can win but at that price probably won’t offer any wagering value. Handsome Gary is 12-1 on the morning line and is intriguing at that number. He’s a devout closer in a field that could produce a pace meltdown in his first-off-the-claim for trainer Jonathan Wong (powerful 27% with this angle). He’s also shows three prior wins over the Santa Anita main track. Toss him in somewhere.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Old Pal
Backups/savers: 2-Boss Sully; 3-Clouseau
Forecast: Though he missed at even money when third against a similar state-bred sophomore group over this course and distance last time out, Old Pal deserves a chance to make amends. He missed the break and lost early position, then was wide throughout and was unable to quicken when asked in the final furlong. Today, from his good rail post, the son of Grazen should be able to draft into a ground-saving, second flight, stalking position and then have every chance to catch the leaders from the quarter pole home. Boss Sully, second in the same race our top pick exits, removes blinkers and projects as the controlling speed once again. Depending upon how much pressure is applied by recent gate-to-wire main track winner Clouseau, the son of Street Boss could prove tough to catch. The latter should at least enjoy a stalking trip and with another forward move can remain a contender throughout.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Brickyard Ride; 5-The Chosen Vron.
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Brickyard Ride returned to winning form with an extra game win in the Kona Gold Stakes-G2 last month, and as the controlling speed in this year’s renewal of the Thor’s Echo Stakes the veteran son of Clubhouse Ride should be tough to catch again, the presence of The Chosen Vron notwithstanding. A winner of 10 races from 14 starts over the Santa Anita main track, the Craig Lewis-trained horse always is tough when he’s on his game. The Chosen Vron made hard work of it when barely escaping by a nose in the Sensational Star Stakes down the Hillside Course at 30 cents on the dollar in his most recent start. Equally effective on dirt or turf, the Vronsky gelding likely will settle in the second flight and then go after Brickyard Ride at the top of the stretch. May the better horse win the race that certainly is worth watching, if not playing.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Atormic Drop
Backups/savers: 8-Forgiving Spirit
Forecast: Atomic Drop took a similar state-bred allowance optional claiming field gate-to-wire over this course and distance last month and is eligible to return to the same condition today because this time he’s entered for the $40,000 tag. The Phil D’Amato-trained gelding should be the controlling speed again and given that type of trip there’s little reason to believe he won’t win again. As a backup, we’ll use Forgiving Spirit, a four time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and stretching out again for a rare try around two turns.
