May 20, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Pushiness
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The first time starter Pushiness looked very much like a soon winner in a sharp :46 3/5 solo bullet gate work earlier this month, and in a race that came up light the daughter of Kantharos should be a short priced favorite to win this abbreviated dash for state-bred juvenile fillies. Her sire gets precocious runners and this daughter of Kantharos, a $115,000 yearling purchase, appears blessed with the type of quickness that should make her rail draw inconsequential. We’ll consider anything even remotely close to her morning line of 2-1 an overlay for this logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Katerini; 1-Paleo’s Princess
Backups/savers: 7-Inner Beauty.
Forecast: We’ll spread the second race, an extended turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers. Katerini is re-equipped with blinkers (she wore them without success twice in 2021) and gets a reasonable spot to make amends after finishing close third as the favorite under similar conditions last month. Her only career victory was accomplished over the local lawn, and in a field lacking in early speed the daughter of Broken Vow should find herself within striking range throughout. Paleo’s Princess drops into a claimer for the first time since she graduated for $50,0000 just over a year ago sprinting on this grass course, and in her first start since being transferred to the Librado Barocio barn the daughter of Square Eddie looks well-placed to regain her best form. She’s a fit on speed figures and is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail. Inner Beauty is worth including as a backup. She returned off a 10-month layoff to finish second in the same race Katerini wound up third (they finished a half-length apart) and with even the slightest of forward moves should pose a threat again, her outside draw notwithstanding.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Crazy Hot; 5-Conquest Celsius
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Conquest Celsius was a well-backed favorite (4/5) when debuting in a similar state-bred juvenile dash for fillies last month but stumbled badly at the start, lost her position, and then couldn’t make up the needed ground despite having the length of the lane to do so in what turned out to be a slowly run race. The number came up especially weak, so while she probably deserves another chance, we’d prefer a newcomer to beat her, though to be honest the first timers in this field hardly inspire. We haven’t seen the Goldencents filly Crazy Hot on video so we don’t know enough about her to have a strong opinion one way or the other, but she did bring $75,000 at auction as a yearling, her dam was a Saratoga stakes winner, and she shows a couple of bullet drills during the early stages of her current workout cycle, so let’s make an educated guess and put the Jeff Bonde-trained filly on top by default while doubling the race in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:38 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Ever Smart; 1-Aloha Kitten
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Ever Smart finished a respectable third (beaten one length) in the Golden Poppy Stakes at Golden Gate Fields three weeks ago and returns to the allowance optional claiming ranks today over a turf course that always has been kind to her. The Neil Drysdale-trained mare does her best work when stalking or pressing the early pace, and in a five horse affair with just one committed front runner (Angel Nadeshiko) the daughter of Broken Vow should easily be able to secure her type of trip from her outside draw. With numbers that can win and having finished first or second in five of seven prior races over the local lawn, the six year mare should have no excuses. Aloha Kitten lands the good rail and is guaranteed an ideal, ground-saving journey. Third with a less-than-ideal trip in a similar affair at Golden Gate Fields late last month, the Craig Dollase-trained daughter of Kitten’s Joy is solid in the speed figure department, likes this turf course, and projects to have every chance. The main concern is that she’s only won once from 15 starts during the last two years.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:22 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Mor Tequila
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: More Tequila got into a speed duel with Brazen Bull in his comeback in a similar event last month and paid the price late when weakening to finish third, but this time from his cozy outside draw pace-stalking tactics likely will be employed, and the projected softer trip should make the winning difference. The son of Mor Spirit earned a strong speed figure in defeat, so if he can move forward at all today the Bob Baffert-trained colt should have every chance to pose for pictures. At 8/5 on the morning line, he’ll probably not offer much value in the straight pool but can be usable as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Ruby Nell
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Ruby Nell displayed an affection for turf when she finished a closing second in her sprint debut behind the speedy A G Bullet in a hot race over the local lawn and today returns to grass while stretching out for the first time in a maiden special weight affair that should be well within her capabilities. The daughter of Bolt d’ Oro already has been a beaten favorite twice from three starts so she may not be one to totally trust, but under today’s conditions the Richard Mandella-trained filly is worth giving one more chance to. There’s good value at or near her morning line of 5/2 if you can get it, so let’s make her a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Liddell
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: The known element certainly isn’t much in this weak sprint for older horses so let’s sink or swim with a fresh face. Liddell brought $105,000 as a yearling and finally makes it to the post in this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 event, not exactly a sign of confidence from trainer Dan Blacker, whose record with first time starters isn’t one to write home about. However, the son of Super Saver actually has trained okay leading up to his debut after being in serious training last summer before being turned out, so while the long range prospects for this gelding must be questioned he does strike us as capable of winning at first asking against this bunch. Under good speed rider Edwin Maldonado (a “go-to” jockey for this outfit), he’s 6-1 on the morning line and at that price he’s worth a gamble as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Very Scary; 5-Elm Drive; 8-Big Summer
Backups/savers: 3-Freedom Flyer.
Forecast: The feature race today is a contentious renewal of the Mizdirection Stakes that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Very Scary has been two-turning almost exclusively during her career but this shortening to a turf sprint could easily produce a career top performance. Graded stakes placed in her last two starts with rapidly rising speed figures, the daughter of Connect projects to settle into an ideal stalking position and then have every chance from the dirt crossing to the wire. She’s listed at 5-1 on the morning line and offers a good gambling opportunity at or near that price. Elm Drive may be the quickest in the field, and if she can transfer her excellent dirt form to the Hillside Course the Phil D’Amato-trained filly could inherit the role as the controlling speed. She’s fast on numbers and sports a recent bullet training track workout (5f, 1:00.4h, fastest of 19) to indicate she remains right on edge. Big Summer always is there or thereabouts and is especially effective (two prior wins) over this trickly downhill layout. Drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Mr. Big should settle in the second flight outside and then accelerate when turned loose in the final quarter of a mile. Genuine and consistent, she has finished first or second in 11 of 13 career starts. Freedom Flyer won the Wishing Well Stakes down the hill in mid-February from similar company and a repeat of that race today makes here a major player once again. You have to include here somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post: 6:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Joker Boy; 6-Strike That
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Joker Boy exits an infinitely tougher couple of races and this drop from starter allowance company to a straight $20,000 claimer should make the winning difference for this hard knocking son of Practical Joke. A winner over this track and distance for this price in mid-February, the 4-year-gelding actually earned a career top speed figure when a non-threatening fifth behind next out winner Lovesick Blues in his most recent outing six weeks ago and a recent sharp gate drill (5f, :59.3hg, fastest of 55) indicates that the Doug O’Neill sprinter is all set to regain his winning form. His morning line price of 5/2 seems reasonable. Strike That is another that should enjoy this softer assignment, and from his cozy outside draw the son of Biondetti projects to draft into a good pace setting/stalking position and remain a strong factor throughout. He is consistently fast on speed figures and has finished first or second in nine of 15 career starts. We expect the winner to be one of these two, and both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Seven Charms; 7-Nineeleventurbo
Backups/savers: 5-Durante.
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag for starter allowance ($50,000) older runners over a mile. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Though he’s been away since July of last year, Seven Charms looks like a live item and rates a slight edge on top. Making his first start since being gelded, the son of Cairo Prince has run well over this course in the past and off a layoff as well, so with a work tab that should have him fit enough the Michael McCarthy-trained veteran will be quite dangerous even at this one mile distance that might be a bit sharp for his liking. Based on speed figures and with good previous from over the local lawn, he’s good enough to win at this level, and from his inside two hole draw he should enjoy a ground-saving, second flight trip. Nineeleventurbo earned a career top number when winning a similar starter allowance event over this course and distance two weeks ago and rates a look right back despite the quick turnaround. He should be forwardly placed throughout and have dead aim from the top of the lane to the wire. Durante has been freshened since December and his work tab at Los Alamitos is light, so it’s possible he’ll need a race before being dead fit. He’s most effective as the controlling speed, and in a race that projects to have soft early splits the son of Distorted Humor may be able to secure his preferred trip. We’ll toss him in, though we’d probably need a bit more than his morning line of 4-1 to feel like we’re getting any value.
