March 25, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Quality Wins; 3-Duran
Backups/savers: 5-Eastbound
Forecast: In his second career start (and his first since September of 2021), Quality Wins showed plenty of ability when overcoming some early self-caused trouble to finish an excellent second (well clear of the rest) in a solid maiden turf sprint last month. The Quality Road gelding galloped out strongly as if to indicate that today’s stretch out in trip will be well within his range. We love the blinkers off move for a stable that has solid stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle, and in a race that projects to have modest early splits this Mark Glatt trainee could grab control early and never look back. Also worth including on your ticket is Duran, a sophomore gelding who ran better the line will show in his debut and seems sure to step forward with a race under his belt combined with today’s added distance. The son of Violence adds Lasix after finishing a distant but willing fifth (beaten 10 � lengths) in a very productive race behind the runaway nine length future stakes performer Johannes. Finally, you should consider saving on a ticket or two Eastbound, who may not be one to entirely trust but whose sharp runner-up effort over this course and distance last fall makes him a major player.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Strut on Louie
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Strut on Louie is a Bay Area shipper with form up north can handle this modest $25,000 claiming sprint field restricted to 3-year-olds. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of Street Sense has numbers that will allow him to separate from the field and this class drop combined with the ideal outside draw runner in a five runner affair guarantees a soft trip. He’s a logical win play at 3-1 on the morning line and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Quaria Thunder; 5-Control Function
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: We’ll double the third race, a starter’s allowance turf miler for fillies and mares that projects to a have a reasonable pace in a race with a few front-running types. Florida invader Quaria Thunder isn’t particularly fast on speed figures but she may prove to be a better type on this circuit after joining the dangerous Phil D’Amato stable. Eligible to valuable ship-and-win money, the daughter of Mizzen Mast remains protected and has put together a work tab designed to have her fit and ready. With some help up front, could produce a winning late kick. Control Function also can turn it on late and is the one to fear most after finishing a willing second in a similar affair over this course and distance. On pure numbers and off her best effort, she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Royal Halo
Backups/Savers: 3-Bailey’s Budget; 6-Blue Cheese Olive
Forecast: There are several question marks in this abbreviated main track sprint for state-bred maiden special weight runners, so tread lightly. Royal Halo ran fairly well when facing a pretty good group of juveniles in a four race campaign as a young two-year-old last spring and is eligible to return a better sort. He’s a first-time Lasix and first-time gelding with a series of workouts that should have him fit enough, so we’ll put him on top while also including on our tick a pair of sneaky first time-starters. Bailey’s Budget shows two fairly quick gate works that indicate some ability while Blue Cheese Olive appears to have done some good work at San Luis Rey Downs for trainer Peter Miller that catches the eye. That he is debuting protected as a four-year-old (rather than in a maiden claimer) tells us something about his connections’ opinion of his talent.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Miss Polo Bar; 7-Con Seal and Kerry
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Miss Polo Bar breezed nicely at the 2022 OBS March sale and then brought $90,000 through the ring but it has taken more than a year to get her to the races and she is debuting for maiden $50,000 tag, not exactly a sign of confidence. However, she is a half-sister to two stakes performers and looked pretty good in a recent gate drill, so there should be enough raw talent there to win a moderate affair such as this. At 4-1 on the morning line, the Ryan Hansen-trained daughter of Tapwrit seems worth a small gamble. Con Seal and Kerry is on paper the quickest of those that have raced, and if she can this clear the field without pressure the daughter of Gun Runner might get brave and keep on going. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and will use both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Sangre Azul; 3-Tizzy Twister
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Sangre Azul moves up a notch for new connections after being claimed for $10,000 out of a winning effort over this track and distance earlier this month. She is seeking her third straight score and should be capable of winning again for a barn that hits at 27% with a substantial flat-bet profit with the first-off-the-clam angle. She gets along great with bug boy Alsagoor (was aboard in both her recent victories) and projects to enjoy another ideal second-flight, stalking trip and then have her chance to seal the deal in the final furlong. Tizzy Twister:, a three-time winner over the Arcadia main track, exits a much tougher race and seems certain to improve with the return to the claiming ranks. She’ll be doing her best work late. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Sangre Azul.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Old Pal
Backups/savers:
Forecast: Old Pal failed to run to his odds-on backing when fourth in a disappointing debut sprinting over the local lawn last month. However, the son of Grazen probably lost his best chance due to early (self-caused) trouble and actually did quite well to close a gap through the lane to wind up a respectable second without being knocked about. He seems sure to produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind him, and today’s two turn trip should be well within his scope, especially with English Channel on the bottom side of his pedigree. In a below par race restricted to California-bred older horses we’ll give the Mark Glatt-trained colt, listed at 8/5 on the morning line, a strong chance to make amends as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Elm Drive
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Elm Drive was a listed added money winner over the Santa Anita main track last year and as a 2-year-old won the Sorrento Stakes-G2 at Del Mar. She returns to the Phil D’Amato barn after being stopped on last September following an unproductive two-race Eastern campaign and likely will return to top form in a below standard renewal of the Desert Stormer S.-G3 for older sprinting fillies and mares. The work tab is relatively light and not particularly fancy but she won her debut as a 2-year-old so we know she can fire fresh. We’re expecting her to be on or near the lead throughout as a logical top pick (at 6/5 on the e morning line) and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:09 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Lamplighter Jack ; 2-Kennebec; 3-Weegee
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Florida shipper Lamplighter Jack is quite fast on speed figures and looks extremely well-meant due to the ship-and-win-money available to this Gulfstream Park invader who has won 10 races from 23 career starts. Top rider Juan Hernandez picks up the mount on the son of Fed Biz, who does his best running on the front end. The main concern is the presence in the field of Dominant Soul, who employs similar strategy and could press ‘Jack into faster-than-ideal early splits. If the pace comes up hot and contested as on paper it appears it might, the comebacking Kennebec may be the beneficiary. Although off the track since February of last year, the Jonathan Wong-trained son of Lookin At Lucky has been working sharply at his home base at Golden Gate Fields and looks dangerous as a closer in a race that might promote his style. Weegee is another that does his best work when held up and allowed to kick home late and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. He’s always been genuine and consistent and owns a prior win over the local lawn two runs back.
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