February 12, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 11:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Bold Choice; 3-Smart Monique
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Bold Choice is stretching out for the first time and projects as the controlling speed in this below average maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares. Despite the fact that she’s burned money in the past, the Steve Knapp-trained filly exits a live race and has never faced an easier field, so with the switch to hustling rider Edwin Maldonado we’re expecting her to take this field gate to wire. Smart Monique is an eight race maiden but has hit the board six times, and is overdue to finally break through. Second at 20-1 with a career top speed figure affair over this course and distance last month while more than five lengths clear of the rest, she will be dangerous if she can turn in two alike, her low profile connections notwithstanding. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:29 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Jacqueline Cochran; 5-Magic Capital
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This maiden claiming ($40,000) main track miler for sophomore fillies drew just five runners, so there’s not much to work with. Jacqueline Cochran exits a tougher maiden special weight state-bred turf event at this distance last month and though finishing eighth was beaten just four lengths and earned a speed figure good enough to handle this field. There’s not a lot of value at or near her morning line of 9/5 but by default she’s the logical top pick. Magic Capital has three sprint preps under her belt, most recently winding up a distant third while passing a few late to indicate she may enjoy today’s added distance. She’s slow on numbers but at least they’re moving in the proper direction. In a race that might otherwise be best left alone, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 11:59 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Ice Queen
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: If you think you’ve seen this race before, you have. Six of the eight entrants exit the same Jan. 13 event over this course and distance for restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. Bali Dancer finished second in that race at 42-1, but today she is marooned in the far outside eight post position so there’s no guarantee she will run as well. Among the others, Ice Queen, third in that race and in the frame in her last two, is guaranteed a good ground saving trip from her favorable two hole draw (she was stuck in the 10 post last time) and seems likely to run well, though with a career record of 1-17 she’s hardly one to trust. In a race lacking in early speed (and late speed, too), the daughter of Cairo Prince should be able to establish the running and have every chance to keep on going, so in a field without no other attractive options we’ll reluctantly make her a rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:29 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Italiano
Backups/Savers: 5-Established; 3-Horn of Plenty
Forecast: Italiano gets the nod on top in this extended sprint for $16,000 older claimers after looming a threat but then losing his steam late when third for $20,000 last month. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the Jeff Mullins-trained eight-year-old retains top rider Juan Hernandez, and with an extra half furlong to work with along with a patient ride that brings out his best he should be able to produce a winning late bid. Established won the race that our top pick exits and should be tough again while projecting to be on or near the lead throughout. There’s a two pound weight shift in favor of Italiano (for whatever that’s worth) and the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding was a voided claim two runs back, so we’re not sure if he can fire a similar shot today. Horn of Plenty is a devout late-running sprinter fresh from a nice score (but race-shape aided) in his local debut for $12,500 last month. He’ll need to improve today but probably is worth including on a ticket or two as a backup.
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RACE 5: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Teena Ella; 1-Wudi
Backups/savers: 8-Foolish
Forecast: We have a suspicion that Teena Ella, a so-far disappointing daughter of War Front from the brilliant race mare Beholder, will improve big time in her first try on grass, and if she does the Richard Mandella-trained sophomore can earn her diploma in this six furlong maiden sprint. Most recently third in a better-than-par dirt dash after pressing the pace before weakening late, the Spendthrift Farm homebred improved her Beyer speed figure by 13 points off her debut effort, and with top rider Juan Hernandez staying aboard she should be able to step forward once again. Her sire gets better turf runners than dirt and hopefully that will be the case with this filly. Wudi flashed promise in her debut when cutting out the fractions before being worn down late but didn’t build on that promising effort when fading to fifth at even money in the same race our top pick exits. She, too, seems likely to move up grass (Uncle Mo x Giant’s Causeway), so if she breaks running from the rail the Bob Baffert-trained filly will have her chance to show her best stuff. Foolish performed quite well in maiden claiming company over this course in her debut last month – she was almost six clear of the rest when finishing second – and though this step up to straight maiden company will test her she did earn a number that makes her a reasonable threat, especially if our two preferred runners do each other in on the front end. Toss her in as a saver.
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RACE 6: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-I Don’t Get It; 3-Yellow Brick
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: I Don’t Get It flashed good speed and stayed on willingly when a promising fourth in a hot sprint won by Hejazi (with Worcester second) in his debut last month and today stretches out to a mile, lands the favorable rail, and is a likely candidate to take his foes gate to wire. The Doug O’Neill-trained son of Cloud Computing shows two easy breezes since that mid-January outing to tick him over, and while we probably would have preferred to see another sprint under his belt before trying this distance he may be good enough to wire the field, nonetheless. Yellow Brick is strictly the one to beat. In the frame in both of his starts, most recently a strong runner-up to the promising Harlocap while more than five lengths clear of the rest over this track and distance, the son of Quality Road seems likely to be produce another forward move with Flavian Prat staying aboard. He’ll be the strong favorite, and deservedly so.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Sapadilla; 5-Sugar Sugar
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: This bottom-rung ($20,000) maiden claiming abbreviated sprint for older fillies and mares is typically weak and uninspiring, so tread lightly. Sapadilla, third in her last three starts, switches to Frankie and may be ready to earn her diploma in her ninth career start. She most recently earned a career top 58 Beyer speed figure, which actually is better than par for this level, so if she can duplicate that performance today she can finally graduate. Sugar Sugar has a look despite finishing sixth with a less than ideal trip in the same race our top pick exits. She has back numbers that are good enough to win and actually finished slightly ahead of Sapadilla two races back, so you probably should include her as well.
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RACE 8: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-The Wild Grazer; 4-Ag Bullet
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: The Wild Grazer is unbeaten in two starts since arriving from Ireland and has looked the part in both wins, mostly recently when producing a sharp turn of foot to win a Hillside Turf Course allowance race with complete authority. Today she stretches out to a mile in the Lady of Shamrock Stakes for sophomore fillies and if she’s not just a late-running sprinter (it could go either way on this) the Jeff Mullins-trained import can score again. Ag Bullet was a visually pleasing gate-to-wire maiden sprint winner over the local lawn last month and similar tactics surely will be employed with the stretch out in trip. The daughter of Twirling Candy got away soft early splits before kicking home with authority, so it’s possible the win made her look better than she is, but we don’t think so.
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