January 2, 2023
“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Amy C; 3-Lady Edith
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato saddles the two major players in this year’s edition of the Las Cienegas Stakes-G3 for older fillies and mares. A two-time winner over this course and distance, Amy C is clearly the one to beat after an authoritative score in the listed Senator Ken Maddy Stakes during the fall meeting, one that produced a career top speed figure. Worth pointing out is that her allowance win last summer under these conditions was impressive as well. She has been successful off a layoff in the past and her recent drills indicate that she is fit and ready, so if you can get close to her morning line of 5/2 you’ll be getting solid wagering value. Stable mate Lady Edith arrives from New York, where she displayed excellent grass sprinting form when conditioned by Christophe Clement. She has an ideal stalking style for the Hillside Course and has trained sharply since joining the D’Amato barn. Furthermore, she’s every bit as fast on numbers as the favorite and employs a similar second flight style, so if she adapts to this unique layout the veteran daughter of Street Boss will be a strong threat in the final furlong.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Nyvan; 9-Point and Shoot
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Morning line favorite (5/2) Nyvan stretches out for the first time after three okay turf sprints and can be the controlling speed if her connections want her to be. Bred for distance (Nyquist out of a Candy Ride mare), the Doug O’Neill-trained filly may not be one to totally trust (she was a beaten favorite in her first two starts) but if she can clear without being sent hard she’s a good candidate to wire the field over a turf course that so far in this young season has favored the speed. Point and Shoot, restless in the gate and off slowly, picked it up with some energy in the final quarter to wind up a non-threatening but reasonable fourth at 53-1 in her debut in November at Del Mar in a similar state-bred affair and has every right to produce a forward move with that experience under her belt. The number wasn’t bad, so in a lackluster affair she may be worth a gamble at her morning line of 8-1. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Filfty Fast
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Judging by her workout times, debuting Filthy Fast apparently has plenty of speed but was nice and relaxed in a solo main track drill December that on video was visually quite pleasing, so we’re expecting this daughter of Kobe’s Back to be extremely live and well-meant in this maiden optional claimer for sophomore fillies. Listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and deservedly so based on what we can gather, the Luis Mendez-trained filly should be capable of dominating this modest group from gate to wire, assuming she leaves cleanly from her rail draw. In a race begging to be won by a newcomer, we’ll make her a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Who’s Candy
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: We’re somewhat surprised that after finishing second in his last pair, two races back in a $50,000 optional claimer and then most recently in a first-level allowance state-bred sprint (with a purse of $74,000), Who’s Candy is being dropped and dangled like claim bait in this $32,000 seller (purse of $37,000), so we’re not entirely convinced that what we’ve seen from him is what we’ll get today. With a huge edge in the speed figure department, the Danzing Candy gelding should dominate if he has (at least) one good left, but at a no value, short price, so this might be a race to be left alone.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Miss Commander
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Miss Commander was beaten seven lengths when second in her debut at Los Alamitos in a similar maiden $50,000 sprint last month but she was six clear of the rest, so it wasn’t a bad effort at all for the John Sadler-trained filly. The barn is extremely strong with the second-time starter angle (25% with a substantially positive ROI) so we’re expecting the daughter of Square Eddie to step forward today and handle this below average band of maiden claiming state-bed sophomores. Two nice breezes at Los Al where she’s based should tick her over nicely. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near that price.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:29 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Lucky for You
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: A half-sister to three stakes performers and closely related to Hollywood Derby-G1 winner Mo Town, Lucky for You finally makes it to the post as a 4-year-old and shows a series of excellent team works that should lead to a winning performance in this extended turf sprint for older fillies and mares. The Bob Baffert barn hits at a remarkable 29% with debut runners and this daughter of Uncle Mo should enhance the stats based on what we’ve seen on video compared to the others in the field with prior experience. She’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line but likely will go lower as a recommended win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Italiano; 2-Established
Backups/savers: 1-Nice Guy Clay; 6-Next Revolt
Forecast: Here’s a challenging $20,000 extended main track sprint for older horses that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Italiano is a first-off-the-claim play for trainer Jeff Mullins (good stats with this angle) so we’re expecting a snap back performance after two substandard outings by this veteran son of Twirling Candy. The two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, is reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez and projects to settle in mid-pack outside and then have clear sailing and every chance to produce a successful late kick. Established is capable of winning at this level when he’s feeling good, but after being a voided claim in his last start and a beaten favorite in his last pair, he may be a hard one to trust. A decent recent work tab leading up to his first outing since early October and the presence of Flavian Prat in the saddle are positive signs, so it’s possible the Tim Yakteen-trained gelding will fire a good shot fresh. Nice Guy Clayrepresents dangerous inside speed and could stick around awhile with the weight break he enjoys under a capable bug boy, while Next Revolt moves up a notch following a clever Del Mar win from a cozy outside post while enjoying a trip that may have flattered but has numbers that fit and projects to enjoy a good second flight, stalking journey.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Motorius
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Motorious is a prototype late-running turf sprinter fresh from a clever win over five furlongs at Del Mar in late November that produced a career top speed figure facing first-level allowance foes. The Phil D’Amato-trained import moves up a notch today, but this group should be within his capabilities, and a recent bullet training track drill (5f, :59 flat, fastest of 18) gives strong indication that another forward move is likely. With Flavian Prat riding him back and at 5/2 on the morning line, the Irish-bred gelding is a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Harlocap; 6-Navy Man
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: The best prospect in this maiden 3-year-old field is trained by – surprise! – Bob Baffert,. Harlocap finished eagerly behind runaway winner Spun Intended in a fast, highly-rated Del Mar dash in mid-November in a race in which sixth place finisher Johannes came back to win by nine lengths sprinting on turf on Saturday. The son of Justify seems certain to produce a significant forward move with that tightener under his belt and strong workouts since, so with Johnny V. riding him back and along with the addition of Lasix this $400,000 Timonium purchase looks ready to graduate. Navy Man is the one he’ll have to worry about. The son of Bolt d’Oro shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern with two strong speed figures on his resume, so if he takes the next leap as expected (in his first start with Lasix) he be within range throughout and be ready to pounce when the button gets pushed. We’ll give Harlocap – priced at 7/2 on the morning line – the slight edge on top but both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Tio Magico
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Tio Magico turned in a remarkable effort when second in a similar middle distance turf event for entry-level allowance older horses at Del Mar last time out. Forced to race wide every step of the way without cover and getting fanned out badly at the head of the lane when commencing his rally, the Uncle Mo gelding found another gear in the final furlong and finished with purpose but simply had too much to overcome and felt short in the closing stages. Today, from his coveted rail post position, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding is guaranteed a ground-saving trip, so anything close to his most recent performance should be more than good enough to get him back in the winner’s circle. We’ll take his 6-1 morning line price right now, though we suspect he’ll leave at a shorter number. With a reasonable degree of confidence, we’ll make him a win play and rolling exotic
