“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
by Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Weegee
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Five of the seven entrants in this starter allowance nine furlong turf affair exit the same race, and of those five, Weegee who was a bit unlucky when finishing second by a nose, ran the best of the lot. In this race, the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding moves from the extreme outside (nine of nine) to the rail and is therefore guaranteed an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip, so rather than spread the race let’s just take a stand and use him at 5/2 on the morning line in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:29 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Talkative Gal; 2-Wild Arch
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Talkative Gal lands the cozy outside post, has finished first or second in three of five career outings over the local main track, makes a major jockey switch to Ramon Vasquez for new trainer Milton Pineda, and can win with a repeat of her solid runner-up effort for $10,000 a couple of weeks ago. Wild Arch, second in three of her last four starts, may not be one to trust (she’s 2-for-21) but in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming sprint the daughter of Arch is a contender. Perhaps most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, she should settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have her chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Octopus; 6-Senor Jobim
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Octopus has been quite popular at the claim box of late, having changed hands in four of his last five starts. He’s in Jeff Mullins’ barn now but is dropping from $40,000 to $32,000 after finishing a no-excuse fifth of eight in his most recent outing in August at Del Mar. Though the pattern isn’t healthy, Mullins is superb with the first-off-the-claim angle (26%, massive ROI), so we’re expecting the veteran son of Shackleford to bounce back in a big way and return to winning form over a main track he’s always preferred (four wins from nine starts). Also worth tossing in is Senor Jobim, a winner of 10 races in his career and making his second start after being claimed by Jonathan Wong two races back. From where he’s drawn outside, the son of Distorted Humor should draft into a comfortable pace prompting position and then have his chance to seal the deal when it matters.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tripoli; 1-Azul Coast
Backups/Savers: none
Forecast: Tripoli once was good enough to win the Pacific Classic-G1, but while those days are probably gone the John Sadler-trained son of Kitten’s Joy should still have enough in the tank to beat this second level allowance optional claiming band. After competing in a series of graded stakes races, he’ll welcome the class relief and likely will get his confidence back against a group he seems likely to outclass. Azul Coast is another stakes winner trying to find his proper level in his second start off a long layoff. Fifth in the Awesome Again S.-G1 in his first outing since December, the Bob Baffert-trained son of Super Saver is winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track but should be able to at least hit the board.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 13-Rhythem On Stage; 1-Workday; 2-Moon Ice
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Rhythem On Stage trained like he could run a bit prior to his debut but didn’t make any impact in a grass miler against an infinitely better group than he’s facing today. The route-to-sprint angle is in full affect for a barn that has solid stats with second timers, and from his outside draw the Carla Gaines-trained colt should have clear sailing and every chance in this six furlong turf sprint. At or near his morning line of 8-1, he’s an enticing gamble. Workday didn’t run badly in his debut at Los Alamitos when closing with some interest to be third in a five furlong dash in July and returns in a winnable spot for a stable that has terrific stats with layoff runners. His John Sadler-trained stablemate, Moon Ice, was considered good enough to debut in a Cal-bred stakes race at Del Mar, and while he finished last of six (beaten 27 lengths), the son of He Be Fire N Ice returns protected and picks up the stable’s “go to” rider Juan Hernandez, so we’ll give him another chance.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Loud Loud Music; 7-Remember Sue
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Loud Loud Music returns to dirt and plummets to the bottom while switching to a 7-lb. bug boy in order to receive a much needed weight break in this $10,000 claiming middle distance affair for fillies and mares. At 9/5 on the morning line, the daughter of Tizbud has little to beat but at that price there’s really no value to be found. Remember Sue is a Bay Area invader in the Jonathan Wong barn fresh from a good win for $12,500 over the all-weather surface in mid-September. She’s unproven on conventional dirt, but if she runs back to her last start she certainly can beat this field. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Katerini; 5-Dear Beau; 7-Very Scary
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Katerini finished a solid runner-up in a similar maiden $50,000 turf sprint for fillies and mares last month and if she breaks cleanly and secures a good pace-pressing trip along the rail the Mark Glatt-trained filly should be able to handle this soft assignment. Dear Beau, a respectable third in the same race that Katerini exits, doesn’t possess any early speed but she can finish a bit and may be heard from in the final stages. Very Scary is a nine race maiden turning back from a series two-turn outings and seems likely to enjoy this shorter trip. Her numbers make her competitive, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on your ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Hero Status; 8-Street Ruckus
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Hero Status earned a strong, career-top speed figure when beating maidens at Del Mar a couple of months ago and returns on the raise wearing blinkers for the first time in this entry-level allowance main track miler. It’ll be interesting to see if the equipment change has the desired effect; if it does, the son of Flatter could find himself as the controlling speed in a race that on paper doesn’t have much of it. Street Ruckus has finished in the frame in his last three starts at this level and should be within range throughout. He’s reunited with “win rider” Juan Hernandez and his recent speed figures are better than par for this level.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Lane Way; 4-Turn On The Jets
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: Lane Wayhas found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter and with some pace up front and clear sailing into the lane the Richard Mandella-trained gelding should be along in time in this Hillside dash for second-level allowance older horses. Fast on figures and with a sharp recent race over this course and distance, the son of Into Mischief looks solid and is deserving of his 9/5 morning line favorite status. Turn On The Jets also finished second down the hill last time out but to be truthful he squandered a perfect trip as the favorite and was worn down late in a bit of a disappointing effort. He’s slower on numbers than our top pick but is lightly raced with plenty of room to improve, so we’ll toss him in as well.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-In Vronskys Style; 6-Moose Mitchell
Backups/savers: none
Forecast: We’ll double the finale, six furlong turf sprint over the flat course for first level allowance state-bred company. In Vronsky Style cut out hot splits before being nailed late in a tough beat against similar rivals down the hill last month but may be able to stick it out today from his good outside draw that should allow for a more comfortable stalking trip. Moose Mitchell, a close third in that same race, is the one to fear most. The Danzing Candy gelding has finished first or second in eight of 16 career starts and may be tough to catch if allowed to sneak away during the early stages without being pressured.
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