“What You Need to Know” – Santa Anita
By Jeff Siegel, 1stbet.com Handicapper & Analyst
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100-point takeout.
The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.
Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 2-Toby’s Heart; 1-Alice Marble
Forecast: Eastern shipper Tobys Heart (TOC=8/5; ML=2-1) is a prototype late-running turf sprinter and therefor is perfectly suited for the Hillside Course. She can route, too, but is much more comfortable going short and in fact sports a career record of four wins from five starts (including three stakes) in grass sprints. Freshened since December, the daughter of Jack Milton should fire a big shot off the bench under Johnny V., and in a six-runner affair shouldn’t have to worry about any traffic issues. As the second choice at 5/2 on the morning line, the B. Lynch-trained filly warrants top billing. Alice Marble (TOC=2-1; ML=2-1) is strictly the one to beat. Winner of the restricted Wishing Well S. over the flat course in late February, the daughter of Grazen has a bit more tactical speed than Tobys Heart and could get first jump on her main rival approaching the dirt crossing. From there, it’s just a matter of who can outkick who. Both should be used in rolling exotic play, with the preferred punch going to Tobys Heart.
Notable Workouts:
Alice Marble (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.3h TT). Grade: B+
Went off quickly without being asked and finish on her own in extra sharp solo main track drill for P. D’Amato, final half mile in :22.3 and :47.1. Tough on any surface and remains right on edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Smuggler’s Run
Forecast: The Echo Eddie Stakes for state-bred 3-year-olds attracted just five entrants, including Smuggler’s Run (TOC=Evens; ML=6/5), who returns to the local main track, the surface over which he graduated in his debut on New Year’s Day by more than five lengths. He’s run well on turf in three subsequent outings, most recently when second vs. open company in a fast allowance race that produced a speed figure that should easily win this race. At 6/5 on the morning line, the R. Baltas-trained colt won’t offer any real wagering value other than as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Smuggler’s Run (April 1, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.4h). Grade: B
In blinkers, nothing more than a high gallop while even but best with Candy for Carmel (same time) while breezing far off the rail, splits of :24.4 and :50 flat on our watches, sharp and eager. Handles any surface but might actually prefer dirt.
View Workout Video
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RACE 3: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 6-Bestrella; 5-Rapid Transit; 1-Operative
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the third race, a $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Bestrella (TOC=9/5; ML=2-1) is winless in seven starts over the Santa Anita turf course but is adding blinkers for the first time in her 17 race career, and it will be interesting to see if the hood wakes her up. Second as the odds-on 3/5 favorite vs. similar over this course and distance last month, the D. O’Neill-trained import hasn’t been one to trust since arriving from Ireland, though she’s certainly good enough to win on her best day. Rapid Transit (TOC=2-1; ML=7/2) does her best work on the front end and managed to wire the field when outlasting a $20,000 field over this course and distance two races back. She was overmatched in starter’s allowance company last time out but isn’t today. Operatic (TOC=9/2; ML=5-1) is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from her rail post position and gets a break in the weights with the swift to bug boy D. Herrera. Victimized by a lack of pace when closing much too late to be third behind Rapid Transit last time out, the P. Aguirre-trained mare has finished first or second in 15 of 34 lifetime starts and can be expected to get at least a piece of it again today.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Adare Manor
Forecast: Adare Manor (TOC=3/5; ML=3/5) earned identical 94 Beyer speed figures in her two most recent races (her only two outings around two turns) when destroying maidens and then winning the Las Virgenes S.-G3 by a combined 25 lengths. She’s since been transferred to the T. Yakteen barn but has trained as well as ever, so we’re expecting the daughter of Uncle Mo to run at least as well and perhaps better in this year’s edition of the Santa Anita Oaks-G-2. She’s drawn outside in the five runner affair, so it would not be surprising to see Johnny V. employ stalking tactics outside. At 3/5 on the morning line, she’s logically unplayable in the win pool but you can use her a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
Notable Workouts:
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Splendid solo main track work for sophomore daughter of Uncle Mo, from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole in :23.1, :35 flat, :59.4 and 1:12.3 on our watches, a couple of ticks faster than given and breezing most of the way. Won her last two races by a combined 25 lengths and it’s easy to see why. Next stop, the Santa Anita Oaks-G2.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 4-Lucky Girl; 3-Cairo Memories
Forecast: Lucky Girl (TOC=6/5; ML=5/2) continued her improving pattern with an authoritative victory in the China Doll Stakes in a performance that verified the strength of her upset score in the Lady Shamrock Stakes the previous month. Both of those wins came over a mile; today, the R. Baltas-trained import stretches out to nine furlongs but we doubt she’ll have an issues with the longer trip. Her numbers have risen in each of her five starts since arriving from Ireland, and with a healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs to tick her over, the daughter of Exceed and Excel should continue to improve as she gains experience. There’s value at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Cairo Memories (TOC=2-1; ML=7/2) was virtually eased in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 last month on the main track but she’s much more comfortable on grass and should regain her top form under these conditions. She can be expected to display enough tactical speed to always be within range of the leaders in a race that projects to have soft splits. We’ll prefer Lucky Girl on top but have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
Cairo Memories (March 31, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h). Grade: B
Breezing through the lane and finishing with plenty left in solo five furlong drill, splits of :24.1, :36.2 and 1:01.2, quite nice for a grass specialist working on dirt. Toss out her poor run in the Santa Ysabel S.-G3 in early March; clearly is much more comfortable on grass and should bounce back on her preferred surface in her next start.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Messier
Forecast: Messier (TOC=Evens; ML=Evens) won the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths in early February while earning a 103 Beyer number, the fastest figure earned by any member of the sophomore division so far, and he did so without being required to do anything close to his best. The son of Empire Maker was part of the pace in that race; today, he’ll have to prove he can be just as effective from a second flight early position, what with the speedy Forbidden Kingdom (and perhaps recent maiden sprint winner Taiba) insuring a much quicker early pace. It shouldn’t matter. He has looked terrific in the a.m. in the two months since his most recent win and should have no trouble reproducing his best form no matter what the pace flow turns out to be. In a race like this, you have to take a stand, so we’ll sink or swim with the sure-to-be short-priced Messier on top in our various rolling exotic plays.
Notable Workouts:
Messier (April 2, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.3h). Grade: B+
Under cruise control throughout, never taking a deep breath, splits of :24.3, :36.1 and 1:00.4 to the wire on our watches before coasting out an extra furlong in 1:13.4. On edge for the Santa Anita Derby.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:17 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Going Global
Forecast: Going Global (TOC=3/5; ML=4/5) labored on dirt when finishing far back three months ago in the American Oaks-G1 in a race that at the last minute was switched to the main track but based on her recent workouts she’s clearly over the experience and is ready to return to peak form. Unbeaten in four starts over the local lawn, the Irish-bred filly owns a decided class edge over her rivals in this year’s renewal of the Royal Heroine S.-G2, and a recent training track drill while in company with stable mate Excelerina (see below) was exceptional. At 4/5 on the morning line, The P. D’Amato-trained filly is a no-value rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
Going Global (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h TT). Grade: A
In company inside Excelerina, 5f, 1:00h TT) in training track drill for P. D’Amato and was head-and-head to the top of the lane before accelerating in the final furlong to draw away as tons the best while mostly on her own, splits of :24.2, :36 flat and :59.4. Freshened since December and looks better than ever. Workmate was a bit keen early and was right with ‘Global entering the lane but then couldn’t keep pace despite being asked and fell back.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:52 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 7-Economical; 1-Dutch Bus; 8=Poseidon’s Kid
Forecast: Here’s a maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for older horses that presents an opportunity for a price play, with the first-timer Economical worth a bit of a gamble at 12-1 in the morning line. The S. McCarthy-trained son of Tiz a Minister didn’t look half-bad in a recent team gate drill while mostly on his own and able to go faster if permitted (see below), so in a wide open affair in which the known element looks somewhat ordinary, let’s take a flyer with a fresh face at a big price. Dutch Bus remains well above his $20,000 claim level in his second start since being haltered by T. Yakteen, so we’ll assume the lightly-raced gelding remains well-liked by his connections. A willing third place effort in a similar event last month charts well with these, so with a clean break from his rail post the son of Will Take Charge should have ever chance to fire his best shot. Poseidon’s Kid displayed a modest amount of ability last year while earning speed figures that should be competitive against this group. Away since July, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding looks about the same in recent workouts but may be good enough to at least get a piece of it.
Notable Workouts:
Economical (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
Gate drill outside Steel Nerves (same time) for S. McCarthy and didn’t do badly for a maiden-claiming type, slightly second best early but then taking control late without ever really being asked for his best, splits of :24.2, :36.1, :48.1 and 1:01.3, something left late. Could be a threat in a soft maiden claimer and is worth a look in the proper spot.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:22 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Granola Girl
Forecast: Granola Girl ran well under similar conditions when finishing with interest to be a close fourth two races back and then pressed the pace before weakening late in a turf miler last month. Back around one turn today, the daughter of Jack Milton may be capable of producing a winning late kick in what appears to be a below average field of maiden fillies and mares. Two nice recent breezes should have her right on edge, so at 3-1 on the morning line, let’s make the R. Baltas-trained filly a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:52 PT Grade:
Use (In order of preference): 2-Connie Swingle; 6-Professors’ Pride; 8-Everlys Girl
Forecast: This is a fairly decent edition of the Evening Jewel Stakes for sophomore fillies that offers three legitimate possibilities. Connie Swingle (TOC=6/5; ML=9/5) has looked very sharp in the morning while preparing for her comeback, and the stakes-winning daughter of Grazen will outclass this group if she returns as well as she left. Away since winning the Generous Portion Stakes at Del Mar last September, the P. D’Amato-trained filly recently honed her speed with a :59 flat gate work (see below) that should have her right on edge. She is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. Professors’ Pride (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1) is undefeated in two starts on dirt and returns to state-bred company, so we’re expecting the daughter of Bayern to snap back to top form. Herself a stakes winner as a two-year-old, the daughter of Bayern projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip and then have every chance when the pressure is turned on. She is reunited with “win rider” J. Hernandez and shows three easy breezes since raced that indicate she is doing well. Everlys Girl (TOC=8/2; ML=8-1) was impressive breaking her maiden by more than eight lengths last month while earning a solid number, and with another forward move today the daughter of Shaman Ghost should be competitive, especially if she can get over and establish the pace. You should include her in on a ticket or two for protection.
Notable Workouts:
Connie Swingle (April 3, Santa Anita, 5f, :59hg). Grade: B+
Much best over Poseidon’s Kid (5f, 1:00.2hg) for P. D’Amato, drawing away with power after straightening for home while under light coaxing only. Appears to be returning at least as good if not better than she left and appears fit enough.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:22 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 3-Arkaan ; 7-Burnin Turf; 10-Harbored Memories; 8-Anaconda
Forecast: Top-to-bottom a chance in this slalom event for second-level older allowance runners in a race that offers plenty of price possibilities. We’ll go four-deep in rolling exotic play and hope that’s enough. Arkaan (TOC=10-1; ML=8-1) makes his first start since January of 2021 for new trainer V. Cerin, and because he won his debut we know he can fire fresh. A healthy recent series of workouts should have him plenty fit, so if the son of Into Mischief can reproduce his best form in his first try on grass, he could produce a significant upset at 8-1 on the morning line. In a race that projects to have an average early pace, the pace flow suggests he’ll find himself on or near the lead throughout. Burnin Turf (TOC=9/2; ML=4-1) earned a career top speed figure when winning over this course and distance last month from a first-level allowance field. This is a tougher group but based on numbers he should be quite competitive right back. It was the first sprint race of his career and maybe running short is what he’s always wanted to so. Harbored Memories (TOC=5-1; ML=5-1) lost a toughie when worn down late in a similar affair over the flat course in his recent comeback. He equaled his career top number and should produce a forward move today, so the M. Puype-trained colt must be considered a strong contender right back. Anaconda is back sprinting where he belongs and should be rolling in the final furlong. The lightly-raced five-year-old flattened out when favored over a mile last time out but under these conditions should be able to settle early and blast home late. At 5-1 on the morning line, you have to use him.
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RACE 12: Post: 5:52 PT Grade: C+
Use (In order of preference): 1-Brotherly Love; 6-Halfbarberbingie; 4-Today Matters; 2-It’s Big
Forecast: The nightcap is a messy maiden claiming turf miler that looks borderline inscrutable. Nothing would surprise us. Brotherly Love lands the rail, projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip, and should be within range with every chance from the quarter pole home. He’s a fit on numbers, retains good bug boy D. Herrera, and with only four prior starts has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. At 10-1 on the morning line, why not? Halfbarberbingie shows a race over this course and distance two runs back – a runner-up effort at 25-1 – that charts well with these. With the switch to U. Rispole, the son of American Pharoah should run at least as well today and perhaps better. Today Matters has finished in the frame in his last three, most recently winding up second over nine furlongs at 32-1 in a race that produced a career top number. Not much more will be needed today, and this shortening in trip shouldn’t hurt, either. Its Big is re-equipped with blinkers and exits a pair of straight maiden state-bred events. He could improve enough against this softer bunch to have a chance at 20-1 on the morning line.
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