Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Whooping Jay; 4-Media Blitz
Forecast: The Friday opener is a stronger-than-par second-level allowance middle distance turf event offering two main contenders that are both, surprising to us, listed at 7/2 on the morning line behind Red Storm Rising (2-1) and Eastern Ocean (5/2). Whooping Jay, never worse than second in four career starts over the Del Mar grass course, stretches out after a series of strong sprint tries and always has been just as effective going long as short. Drawn perfectly inside, the M. Glatt-trained gelding seems certain to be the controlling speed and given that type of trip the son of Square Eddie should be hard to run down. Two bullet workouts since raced indicate he’s a sharp as ever. Media Blitz rallied strongly against soft fractions to be a close second at this level last month at Santa Anita in an effort that produced a career top speed figure. He’s won over the local lawn in the past and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip. We’ll give the edge on top to Whooping Jay but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Whooping Jay (November 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B+
Looked quite good without ever being asked, final three furlongs in :36 flat, plenty left late. On top of his game and can sprint or route equally well.
View Workout Video
Media Blitz (November 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h TT). Grade: B
Very light coaxing late to finish in full stride, final three furlongs in :36 flat. Maintains his sharp edge.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-She’s So Shiny
Forecast: She’s So Shiny is re-equipped with blinkers while dropping into a seller for the first time, and from her cozy outside draw the daughter of Capo Bastone seems likely to dictate the race flow. She’s a standout on speed figures and projects to be on the lead without having to produce quick fractions. She’s the 7/5 morning line favorite and could easily go lower, so we’ll make her a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Darling Donna; 6-Champagne Camie
Forecast: Darling Donna produced a significant forward move in her second career start when a strong runner-up (well clear of the rest) in a maiden special weight main track sprint at Parx in late September. She makes her West Coast debut in a below average turf dash for juvenile fillies that should be within her capabilities for the always-powerful V. Cerin/K. Desormeaux trainer-jockey combo, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. This same owner-trained combo is represented by the 3-1 morning line favorite, Champagne Camie, a Saratoga invader with form that makes her strictly the one to beat. The daughter of Speightster finished in the frame in her first two outings but then disappointed when off the board, though earning a career top number when fading to fifth last time out. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other and both should be included in rolling exotic play
Notable Workouts:
Champagne Camie (November 14, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h). Grade: B-
Slightly best inside Little Lara (same time), splits of :22.4 and :48 flat und mild late coaxing. Seems in good enough shape, has her speed.
View Workout Video
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Mongolian Wind; 6-Synthesis
Forecast: Scratched yesterday when 30-1 on the morning line for this more realistic spot, Mongolian Wind debuts for R. Baltas following a $25,000 claim in this middle distance main track affair. We’re expecting a significant forward move by the lightly-raced gelding, who projects to settle nicely somewhere in the second flight behind what should be a contested pace. The son of Mucho Macho Man, listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite, is a solid fit on speed figures and switches to V. Espinoza, who has ridden a lot of live runners for this barn of late. Synthesis is the one to fear most. Overmatched in a tougher first level allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita last month, the son of First Samurai is strong on numbers, returns to his claim level, and is guaranteed a nice stalking trip from his outside draw. We’ll prefer Mongolian Wind on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Synthesis (November 19, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.3h). Grade: B+
Under wraps while appearing quite sharp in easy breeze for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :36.2. Appears on edge for a major effort.
View Workout Video
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Midnight Special
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with Midnight Special as a single in this allowance optional claiming turf sprint for older horses. A clever winner last month on turf at this five furlong trip at Golden Gate fields, the son of Vronsky moves up from $20,000 to $40,000 following a R. Hess, Jr., claim, switches to the barn’s “go to” rider K. Desormeaux and catches a field that surprisingly doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on. Quick enough to be on or near the lead from the get-go, this hard-knocking gelding should have every chance to pay a quick dividend for his new connections while offering wagering value at or near his morning line of 4-1.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Honor Among Men; 6-Gerlach’s
Forecast: Honor Among Men, claimed last month for $16,000 when second while more than five lengths clear of the rest, should be too quick for this group in his first start for M. Maker. The pace scenario in this abbreviated dash looks fairly soft, so with the switch to U. Rispoli the son of Bayern should have every chance to wire the field as the 2-1 morning line favorite. Gerlach’s, fresh from a confidence-building maiden $20,000 score that produced a career top number three weeks ago, can be dangerous if he can duplicate that performance in this tougher spot. The Grazen gelding seems likely to inherit a good stalking position outside and then have dead aim on the favorite from the top of the lane to the wire.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Friar’s Road; 3-Say the Word; 7-Rockemperor
Forecast: Rockemperor didn’t have much of a chance in the Breeders’ Cup Turf S.-G1 three weeks ago after being buried on the rail most of the way and then getting shuffled back at a critical stage entering the far turn. He wound up a non-threatening eighth (beaten under seven lengths) but today gets a much easier assignment while switching to turf master F. Prat in this year’s renewal of the Hollywood Turf Cup-G2. Friar’s Road, a lightly-raced son of Quality Road from the M. McCarthy barn, finished strongly to be third when beaten a head in the John Henry Turf Cup-G2 last time out and before that crushed an allowance field in a mini-marathon affair over the Del Mar lawn during the summer season. He’s had only 10 career starts, and his numbers continue to rise, so with another bit of improvement today he’ll have a legitimate shot at it. Say the Word has a chance off his best effort as well. Freshened since mid-August, the More Than Ready gelding is a genuine stayer with a good turn of foot, so with a bit of help up front and good racing luck he’s likely to make some noise close home.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Quick Finish; 7-Brace for Impact
Forecast: Brace for Impact has been away since February but there a couple of bullet workouts on his tab about a month ago that indicates he’s fit enough to fire a big shot in this first-level allowance sprint. A winner over this track and distance last year following a similar vacation, the K. Headley-trained gelding projects to be on or near the lead under regular pilot E. Maldonado. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and represents a reasonable gamble at that price. Quick Finish is another layoff runner worth considering on your ticket. Second in all three starts at Del Mar, the D. Blacker-trained gelding is just 2-for-20 during his career but has numbers that are competitive and recent drills that should have him plenty fit.
Notable Workouts:
Brace for Impact (November 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
Splits of :23.2 and :48.3 from the half mile pole to the wire, mild ridden late, solid drill on the comeback trail for K. Headley. Seems pretty fit and has fired fresh in the past.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Witch Moon; 7-Air Force Woman; <8-Bowl of Cherries
Forecast: The finale is a messy $50,000 maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just three. Bowl of Cherries stretches out for the first time and is bred to handle the mile, so we’re anticipating the daughter of Speightster will have a strong pace presence throughout. Her sprint numbers are a fit this level, so her morning line of 6-1 seems about right. Air Force Woman was given a race sprinting in her debut and finished evenly without posing a threat. She switches to F. Prat, stretches out to a distance her pedigree okays, and shows two easy five furlong drills at San Luis Rey Downs that should help her move forward. With the addition of blinkers, the daughter of Air Force Blue likely will display improved early speed. Witch Moon is an 11-race maiden and was a beaten choice in a similar affair last month at Santa Anita, missing by a half-length when second despite having every chance from the furlong pole to the wire. She’ll more than likely be in the thick of things again today and in a soft field has to be considered a threat.
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