Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 7-Donner Lake; 9-Suzie Qzz Brother
Forecast: Los Alamitos from doesn’t always transfer to Del Mar, so we’re not confident Suzie Qzz Brother will run as well today as he did when earning a career top speed figure in a strong runner-up effort last time out almost two months ago. He’s drawn comfortably outside and shouldn’t have any excuses as the 9/5 morning line favorite in this maiden special weight sprint for older horses. Donner Lake tries dirt for the first time and there’s no reason he won’t handle it. Freshened since August and showing the route-to-sprint angle, the R. Baltas-trained colt has numbers that fit and bullet recent five furlong workout (:59 1/5, fastest of 29) at San Luis Rey Downs that catches the eye.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Kennebec; 5-Steak and Cheese
Forecast: Kennebec is re-equipped with blinkers after finishing willingly but too late when a close fourth in a slightly tougher spot at Santa Anita last month. He’s likely to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his good rail draw, so let’s give the J. Wong-trained colt a slight edge on top with “win rider” B. Pena flying down from his home base at Golden Gate Fields to pick up the mount. Steak and Cheese looked pretty good winning a much softer restricted (nw-2) $25,000 seller last month at Santa Anita in a race that earned a career top speed figure, one that makes him dangerous despite the class hike. The M. Maker-trained gelding wants to be held up and allowed to produce a late kick. Regular rider U. Rispoli stays aboard and knows him well.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Playin in the Band; 6-Straight Up G
Forecast: Straight Up G was bet like he couldn’t lose in his debut (even money) but had no visible excuse in a six-runner affair from a cozy outside post and wound up a disappointing fourth, beaten more than six lengths. The San Luis Rey Downs-based colt continues to produce strong workout times, so in a below average field the R. Baltas-trained son of Straight Fire probably deserves another chance. Playin in the Band is bred for speed (Stanford) and seems to be working pretty well for M. Glatt. With hot riding J. Hernandez taking the call and at 3-1 on the morning line, he’s worth including on your ticket as well.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 7-Pop Pop’s Dream
Forecast: Pop Pop’s Dream was visually quite pleasing in victory over the Del Mar turf course when last seen in a maiden $50,000 middle distance affair in late August. Haltered by M. Puype from the race, she makes her first start for her new connections after being a late scratch Oct 8 and then not working again until two weeks later. If ready, and if she runs back to her last performance, the daughter Paynter should be capable of winning on the raise. With just two starts on her resume, she has plenty of room for improvement and at 4-1 on the morning line looks like a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Artisan Dancer; 8-Surely Spectacular
Forecast: We’ll double this bottom-rung maiden $20,000 sprint for two-year-old fillies but not with any degree of confidence. Big ticket players should spread as deeply as they can afford to. Artisan Dancer has some early speed and could get brave at this level if she breaks running and become the controlling speed. She’s not particularly strong in the speed figure department but none of these are, and in this league, she could easily improve a bunch. Surely Spectacular moves to the B. Koriner barn and has a number three races back over this main track that makes her a major player. She’s likely to settle in a stalking position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Provocation; 8-Bristol Bayou
Forecast: Provocation can fire fresh (she won her debut) and her recent workouts should have her fit enough for a big effort off the bench for B. Baffert in this first-level allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Away since last December, the daughter of Into Mischief could easily be a better type now as a 4-year-old, so we’ll give her a very slight edge on top over Bristol Bayou, a winner of three of her last four starts with solid speed figures and likely to enjoy an ideal second flight, stalking trip outside.
Notable Workouts:
Provocation (November 10, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.2h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, caught her a bit slower on our watches but still looked quite good for B. Baffert, splits of :36.4, 1:00.4 and 1:13 flat while working from the five furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole, never really asked and finishing with plenty left. Coming back better than she left.
View Workout Video
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RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Invincibella
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with Invincibella, a winner over this course and distance during the summer meeting with numbers that are good enough to handle this $25,000 claiming field of older fillies and mares. The P. Miller-trained Irish-bred likes to settle in the second flight and then produce a late kick, so with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase she should be good enough to tag the speed close home. At 3-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts
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RACE 8: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Fashionably Fast; 2-None Above the Law
Forecast: The main contention in this year’s renewal of the Cary Grant S. is drawn inside, with both Fashionably Fast and None Above the Law having the ideal style for this seven furlong distance. ‘Fast, first or second in six of eight career starts over the Del Mar main track, won a listed stakes at Fresno last month to indicate there’s still plenty of life in the old legs, while ‘Law, winner of the Del Mar Derby-G2 running long on the lawn two races back, shortens in trip, faces state-bred rivals, and won the Real Good Deal S. over this track and distance in July in such a manner that suggest that this extended sprint trip might bring out his best stuff. We’ll give the older Fashionably Fast a very slight edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
Notable Workouts:
Fashionably Fast (November 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B+
Full of run through the lane without being asked, final half mile in :24 flat and :47.3 on our watches. Razor sharp and always gives his best.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade:
Use: 5-Buy American; 7-Buzz of New York; 11-Laura Mars
Forecast: The extreme outside post is no bargain but if Laura Mars can reproduce the form she displayed in two starts over the all-weather surface at Chantilly in France last spring in her U.S. debut the daughter of Elusive Quality should be capable of handling this middle distance turf maiden affair for older fillies and mares. The R. Baltas-trained filly – a first time Lasix user – has been burning up the track at San Luis Rey Downs to indicate she is fit and ready, so let’s put her on top at 4-1 on the morning line. Buy American has been her own worst enemy so far in her career, but the removal of blinkers could help her relax and not get rank, and if so, she should be dangerous from a stalking position. The B. Koriner-trained daughter of American Pharoah is intriguing at 5-1 on the morning line. Buzz of New York isn’t one to trust, having burned money in her last pair vs. similar, but she’s a fit on numbers, switches to J. Hernandez, and should be running on late.
Notable Workouts:
Buy American (November 5, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.4h). Grade: B+
No blinkers, went off quickly and then was allowed to finish on her own, quite nice for a grass specialist working on dirt, splits of :23.2, :35.1 and 1:00.4 for B. Koriner. Looks quite sharp and is overdue for a maiden win.
View Workout Video
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