Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Cali Bay; 2-Square Cat
Forecast: Cali Bay earned a career top speed figure when missing by a neck in a similar five-furlong turf dash at Santa Anita last month and today shows up as a first-time gelding while drawing the coveted inside post position. He’s worked well in the interim and should be primed for another forward move, though his lack of tactical speed over a course and distance that heavily favors the speed makes his quest for a diploma-producing victory somewhat challenging. Square Cat is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket as well. The son of Square Eddie, a somewhat respectable third in his debut at 17-1, has a right to step forward with that bit of experience behind him, and with a healthy series of workouts since that race for trainer B. Koriner (solid stats with the second-time starter angle) he should have a decent price chance at 6-1 on the morning line.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 6-T Bones Trick; 7-Family Biz
Forecast: T Bones Trick joins the high-percentage J. Wong barn for his first start since mid-September and the veteran gelding shows a recent solid series of drills to indicate he’s ready for a major effort for a barn that hits at a strong 24% with the layoff angle. A prior winner over the Del Mar main track, the son of Midnight Lute should settle nicely in the second flight and then have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Family Biz plummets in class to his cheapest level ever ($16,000) after being claimed for $40,000 by J. Mullins two races back. Obviously, this is not the healthiest of patterns but if the son of Fed Biz has one good one left, he could easily snap back to form against this group. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to T Bones Trick.
Notable Workouts:
T Bones Trick (November 13, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2). Grade: B
In blinkers and shadow roll, finished in a breeze outside Barbiere (same time) for J. Wong, splits of :23.3 and :47.3, a tick slower than given on our watch but quite nice, nonetheless. Freshened since mid-September and looks sharp and eager.
View Workout Video
Family Biz (November 6, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.2h TT). Grade: B+
May have gone a tad slower than given but was under cruise control throughout in solo bullet training track drill (fastest of 9), final three furlongs in 12 flat and :36.1, plenty left while looking like his old self. Perked up and ready to snap back to good form.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Trickle In; 5-Zero Tolerance
Forecast: Zero Tolerance is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite in this five-furlong optional allowance claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares and looks very much like an odds-on choice on paper. A smart winner down the Hillside Course in the Unzip S. in early October, the daughter of Mizzen Mast failed to stay a mile when weakening under pressure to wind up fourth in the subsequent Autumn Miss S.-G3 three weeks ago. Back sprinting and dropping into the second-level allowance ranks, the P. Miller-trained filly should outclass this group. Trickle In may be worth using on a ticket or two as a back-up. She’s a quick sort, and over a course that heavily promotes speed the D. Blacker-trained filly could get loose early and take this field a long way.
Notable Workouts:
Trickle In (November 5, Santa Anita, 4f, :49.1h TT). Grade: B-
Was under stout restraint throughout in solo training track drill, final three furlongs in :37.3 looking fine but never changing leads. Seems to have all of her speed, probably more comfortable on grass.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 2-Head for Business; 4-Wearenotbadpeople
Forecast: Wearenotbadpeople, a first-off-the-claim play for Bay Area-based trainer Q. Howey, finished a close fourth over this track and distance last month in his second career start and won’t really need to improve much to graduate in this soft maiden $50,000 abbreviated sprint for older state-bred runners. A beaten choice in both starts, the son of Clubhouse Ride so far has trained a bit better than he’s run and may not be one to trust, but with plenty of room to improve the sophomore gelding deserves one more chance. Head for Business already has had eight races without winning but has hit the board on four occasions and has speed figures that are tops in the field. He’s never been one to fight back in the final furlong when put to pressure but against this group he might be able to open up and then hang on. In a race that otherwise should be left alone, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Hail Freedom; 3-Prince Abama
Forecast: Prince Abama missed at 4/5 in a similar two-turn maiden turf affair last month at Santa Anita but earned a better than par speed figure in the process and today adds blinkers, so the Irish-bred gelding seems likely to be a relatively short price once again. A bullet half mile training track drill (:47 4/5, fastest of 15) catches the eye, and from a cozy three-hole position regular rider U. Rispoli should be able to dictate his trip. Hail Freedom is slower on numbers than our top pick but has hit the board in his last six starts and could find himself as the controlling speed if rating tactics are employed by the sprinter-stretching-out Sai Con. Even if relegated to a stalking position, the California-bred son of Box Score projects as a major player every step of the way. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press in the win pool with Prince Abama on top.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Adare Manor; 4-Micro Share
Forecast: Unless there is a top prospect among the first-time starters, Adare Manor should be set to graduate at a short price in this extended sprint for maiden juvenile fillies. The daughter of Uncle Mo displayed good speed under pressure throughout and then just failed to last when second, beaten a neck, in a strong maiden special weight sprint at Santa Anita late last month. With that race behind and for a barn that has superior stats with the second-time starter angle, the B. Baffert-trained filly is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite but seems likely to go shorter. Among the newcomers, Micro Share may be the most dangerous and probably is worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up. A $450,000 OBS April sale graduate, the daughter of Upstart smoked a quarter of a mile in :20 4/5 in a breeze during the preview session that led to her expensive purchase, and a recent gate drill in company with impressive debut winner Unbridled Mary was pretty decent as well.
Notable Workouts:
Adare Manor (November 12, Santa Anita, 4f, 47.2h). Grade: B+
Just galloping in effortless drill, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :36.2 (probably went a couple of ticks slower than given). Uncle Mo filly seems certain to improve with experience and distance.
View Workout Video
Micro Share (October 24, Santa Anita, 3f, :36.1hg)
In blinkers, was slightly second best with Unbridled Mary (5f, 1:00.3hg) and Cardoza (4f, :48.3hg), mild some coaxing in useful drill while in company with a subsequent impressive first out winner. Appears to have some speed, recorded three fast drills following this late October drill. Would have to think she can be competitive first time out.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Big Coupe; 4-Secret Club; 11-Midnight Jostar
Forecast: Secret Club looks well-spotted for a winning effort after stringing together three straight third place finishes in similar first-level allowance competition, most recently as the 6/5 favorite in a 10-furlong affair at Santa Anita. His numbers are strong, and with regular pilot F. Prat serving a suspension good grass rider J. Bravo picks up the mount and should give him the patient ride he requires. This will be his first race in blinkers, so perhaps the son of Clubhouse Ride will show renewed spark, so at 4-1 on the morning line there’s value to be found in the win pool and in rolling exotic play. Big Coupe has won his last pair in convincing fashion and could be this good if his improvement continues. The lightly raced son of Lakerville has rising numbers but needs another forward move to make him a threat in this league. Never off the board in seven starts, the L. Powell-trained gelding should be prominent throughout. Midnight Jostar gets the worst of the draw but is another with steadily improving form and a prior win over the Del Mar turf course. He’ll need some help up front to have his best chance, but the P. D’Amato-trained gelding continues to impress in the a.m. and is worth including somewhere at 6-1 on the morning line.
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: 4:00 PT Grade:
Use: 2-Midcourt; 5-Azul Coast; 6-Eight Rings
Forecast: We’re not really sure if Eight Rings wants to go nine furlongs but he certainly has the pedigree to get the distance and based on his recent races the B. Baffert-trained colt seems to be returning to his Grade-1 winning form of his 2-year-old season. A distant but respectable fourth behind Life Is Good in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile-G2 two weeks ago, the son of Empire Maker is wheeled back quickly in this year’s edition of the Native Diver S.-G3 and offers a good gamble at 7/2 on the morning line. Del Mar specialist Midcourt, virtually eased in the Awesome Again S.-G1 in early October, has bounced back successfully in the past after a poor run and is more than capable of winning at this level with his best effort. The son of Midnight Lute is most comfortable on the front end, so we suspect gate-to-wire tactics will be employed. Azul Coast is a fit on numbers based on his clever overnight win over the local main track two races back. He’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and project to enjoy a good second flight trip and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home.
Notable Workouts:
Eight Rings (November 15, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B+
In blinkers, broke off several lengths behind Crew Dragon (4f, :49.1h) and rallied inside to prove much best while breezing through the lane, splits of :23.4 and :36 flat from the three furlong pole out to the seven furlong pole. On top of his game.
View Workout Video
______________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Dixie’s Two Stents
Forecast: Dixie’s Two Stents drops to the bottom-rung maiden $20,000 level and appears to have found a proper spot to graduate. His close fourth place finish over the Del Mar main track two races back in a maiden special weight sprint earned a speed figure that should allow him to outdistance his modest foes, and while this class drop indicates the son of Quality Road is being culled from the stable the move seems reasonable. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding looks like a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
______________________________________________________________________________
