Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Kuora; 6-Del Mar Drama
Forecast: Kuora moves up a notch to the $40,000 claiming level after rallying with the help of the race-shape to win going away with a career-top equaling figure in a one miler turf event at Del Mar in late August. Successful in five of 12 starts but with no seconds or thirds, the Peruvian-bred mare has been all or nothing in her career so far but if she’s given the patient, waiting ride that she requires the R. Baltas-trained import should be capable of scoring right back. Her rail draw guarantees a ground-saving trip and J. Bravo, who got to know her last time out, stays aboard. Del Mar Drama is worth including somewhere on your ticket as well. The daughter of Shackleford exits tougher allowance/optional claiming company, adds blinkers, and shows a sharp recent breeze that tells us she’s doing well. She’s another that prefers to be held up early and cut loose late and may offer a bit of wagering value at 8-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
6-Del Mar Drama (October 4, Santa Anita, 4f, :47h TT). Grade B
In blinkers, quick drill while mostly on her own, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.1, quite sharp for E. Kruljac. Seems to have perked up with hood on. Worth a close look in the proper spot.
View Workout Video
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RACE 2: Post: 1:31 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Essential Quality; 6-Affable; 8-Disco Ball
Forecast: Affable returns to sprinting on dirt, and a rep[eat of his solid third place performance in a similar affair at Del Mar two races back in which he earned a career top speed figure makes him the one to beat. The M. Glatt-trained son of Flatter removes blinkers (like that angle), retains A. Cedillo, and should find himself comfortably positioned on or near the lead in a race that projects to have soft early splits. He’s listed at 5-1 on the morning line and that seems like a square price. Disco Ball lands the cozy outside draw after finishing a good runner up in a hot maiden sprint at Los Alamitos last month in a race that produced a career top number. The son of Orb has been an underachiever throughout his career but may finally be figuring things out. There should be no excuses today. Essential Wager is a first-timer from the Baffert with a decent series of drills that should have him fit enough to be a legitimate contender in this seven furlong event for older maidens. He’s been working evenly with stable mate Miacomet – both are listed at 4-1 on the morning line – but we suspect ‘Wager is slightly the better of the two so he’s the one we’ll include in our rolling exotics.
Notable Workouts:
1-Essential Wager (October 9, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h). Grade: B
Stride-for-stride with B. Baffert-trained stablemate Miacomet (same time), splits of :23.3, :47.1 and :59.1 while working from the half-mile pole to the 7/8 pole, easy to the top and then ridden some through the lane, solid work for both. Been in training a long time and should be more than fit enough by now. No champion but should be competitive with maiden special weight foes first time out. Workmate kept on nicely under light pressure and can run some, too.
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7-Thales (September 25, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h). Grade: B-
Finally makes it to the post after bringing $1,250,000 in the 2020 OBS April sale and looks to have some ability following this solo five furlong drill, splits of :25 flat, :36.4 and 1:01 flat, ridden a bit through the lane after going off slowly. Would be inclined to see one first.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:05PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-New Drama; 6-Sweet Devil; 7-Miss Tokyo
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the third, a six furlong turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $25,00 claiming fillies and mares. New Drama takes a significant class drop from the starter’s allowance $50,000 ranks into this modest affair and may have found her friends. Winless in seven starts (with three placings) over the local turf course but with a good inside draw and enough speed to wire the field with her best effort, the T. Yakteen-trained daughter of Declaration of War is reunited with “win rider” J. Pyfer and is fairly-priced on the morning line at 7/2. Sweet Devil has the route-to-spring angle that we like and is adding blinkers for the first time, so the daughter of Daredevil has a right to step forward significantly over a course and distance that produced a good win three races back. It’ll be interesting to see if the addition of the hood adds a bit more tactical speed to her repertoire. Miss Tokyo, away since June of last year, returns for new trainer L. Powell with the first-time-for-a-tag angle but at a sprint distance that may be a bit too sharp for her liking and with a somewhat uninspiring work tab. It’s possible she’s being raced into a shape, but she picks up “win rider” U. Rispoli for a trainer that has good stats with layoff runners, so we’ll toss in her on a ticket or two for protection.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Sir Flatter; 4-Try to Capture; 10-Fenestra
Forecast: Fenestra flashed good speed before fading when facing straight maiden company in his only prior outing a year ago July at Gulfstream Park and today resurfaces in a bottom-rung maiden claimer for a clever outfit with a superb record with layoff runners. The V. Cerin-trained gelding shows a reasonably decent work tab to have him fit and ready, and this first-time Lasix user will be ridden by the barn’s “go to” guy K. Desormeaux, so everything seems aligned for a major effort in a soft affair. Try to CaptureSir Flatter, in the frame in his last pair, is slow on numbers and lacks tactical speed but should be running on late and may get at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Toeris; 7-Ballet Dancing
Forecast: Toeris is a New York invader eligible for valuable ship-and-win money in this maiden special weight juvenile filly turf miler and the daughter of Tourist doesn’t appear to have a whole lot to beat, hence her morning line of 9/5. Drawn ideally on the fence with the rail setting 20 feet out, the M. Casse-trained daughter of Tourist figures to be outrun early while saving ground and then have every chance to produce a winning late kick when called upon. Perhaps the most dangerous of the newcomers is Ballet Dancing, a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro who brought $800,000 as a yearling. The S. Callaghan-trained filly is a full sister to Foolish Living, who only raced four times but was a smart debut winner over a mile on grass at Belmont Park a few years back. The work tab is solid if not spectacular but should have her fit enough to a produce a good effort, perhaps even a winning one.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:34 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lightning Fast; 6-Exalted Joy; 7-Direct Line
Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claiming miler contains several big class droppers and we’re expecting the winner to be among that group. Direct Line broke his maiden two runs back at Del Mar in a $40,000 seller with an off-the-charts 91 Beyer speed figure but then was virtually eased when overmatched in a first-level allowance event three weeks later at the same track. The Liam’s Map gelding is realistically spotted today while being reunited with “win rider” T. Baze and should draft into an ideal stalking position outside then be able to kick on when given his cue. Lightning Fast, freshened since June, shows up in a seller for the first time after being able to land a blow in a series of state-bred first-level allowance events in the spring. The son of Violence sports a healthy series of recent workouts that should have him ready for an optimum performance for a barn that has strong stats with layoff runners. A prior winner over the Santa Anita main track, the W. Spawr-trained gelding projects to enjoy a forwardly-placed ground-saving trip and looks very much like a live item at 6-1 on the morning line. Exalted Joy graduated by six lengths over this track and distance last spring but found starter’s allowance company out of his reach in a pair of subsequent outings at Delk Mar. With back numbers that make him a strong fit, the son of Exaggerator should go much better in this league
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RACE 7: Post: 4:02 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Barristan The Bold; 5-Via Egnatia; 9-Castle
Forecast: Older $25,000 claiming turf sprinters collide in a tough race that offers several contenders and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Castle, first-off-the-claim for K. Mulhall, is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, moves up a notch from the $20,000 level, retains regular rider A. Cedillo, and has the ideal pace-stalking style for this extended sprint distance. The barn has powerful stats with recent claims (24%) and a sharp, healthy recent work tab that should have the veteran Slew’s Tiznow gelding cranked up for a return to winning form. The form suggests that Via Egnatia is most effective on the lead going long but he’s sprinted well in the past and record a bullet five furlong training track drill last week to catches the eye. The R. Baltas-trained gelding projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip and then have dead aim and every chance with the pressure is turned on. Barristan the Bold, claimed in his last pair and back sprinting where he belongs, earned a good speed figure despite a troubled trip two runs back in a race that if repeated today puts him right there. The English-bred gelding gets a break in the weights with the switch to competent bug boy D. Herrera and also adds blinkers for the first time, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s certainly worth including on your ticket.
Notable Workouts:
6-Via Egnatia (October 7, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B-
Rank and running off down the backstretch, settled midway, and the cruised through the lane without being asked, splits of :11.4 and :36.3 for the final three furlongs. Not always the easiest of rides, can be effective sprinting or routing on his best day.
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9-Castle (September 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h). Grade: B
Final half mile in a solid :24.1 and :48.1, easy to the top and then asked and ridden through the lane looking fine for new trainer K. Mulhall. Maintains his good form.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Breakfast Ride; 6-War At Sea; 8-Barossa
Forecast: Here’s a fairly strong maiden dirt miler for 2-year-olds that should take a pretty good colt to win it. War at Sea and Breakfast Ride, the three-four finishers behind subsequent Grade-1 winner Corniche in the fastest maiden sprint for juveniles in North America so far this year, return on the stretch-out with credentials to improve considerably in their second career start A $525,000 son of War Front, War At Sea finished a respectable third while staying on creditably without threatening the winner and has trained nicely since while giving the impression that he’ll be able to handle today’s two-turn trip. The barn has had a very slow year, but this colt can run and appears to be capable of significant forward move. Breakfast Ride produced a solid mid-race move while widest of all in that race and kept on reasonably while clearly needing the outing. The J. Sadler barn has excellent stats with the second-time starter angle, so we’re expecting this son of Distorted Humor to be fitter, tighter, and more dangerous. Barossa, the morning line favorite at 3-1, finished a distant third at this distance in his second career outing while earning a vastly improved speed figure. The son of Into Mischief has trained quite well since for B. Baffert, should be prominent throughout and may stick a whole lot better today over a main track that has consistently favored the early pace types.
Notable Workouts:
1-Durante (October 2, Santa Anita, 5F, :59h). Grade: B-
In company with B Dawk (5f, 1:00h), breaking off about a length behind at then going by with authority from the top of the to the wire wile being ridden out, splits of :23.2, :34.4 and :59 flat, doing his best to the end. A bit too high-headed for our liking but has some speed and has room to improve.
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6-War At Sea (October 4, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:14.1hg). Grade: B
In a three horse gate drill with Miss Everything (5f, 1:02hg) and Solitaire (5f, 1:03hg) and was much best while head-and-head with ‘Everything to the top and then responding to urging from the quarter pole home, splits of :24.2, :48.3 and 1:14.1 on our watches, ridden to the wire and responding well enough. Juvenile colt by War Front exits a hot race and seems likely to improve with distance and experience (and probably turf, too).
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8-Barossa (October 10, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1h). Grade: B
In company with Midnight Mammoth (same time) for B. Baffert and was even but noticeably best while breezing through the lane in good style, final half mile in :23 flat and :48.1 from the three furlong pole to the seven furlong pole on our watches. Has an improving pattern but no sure thing to go farther than a mile.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:05 PT Grade: B
Single: 8-Bally’s Charm
Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden special weight turf miler for state-bred 2-year-olds that has the makings of a chaotic affair. Let’s take a stand with a price horse. Bally’s Charm is a dangerous first-time starter for a barn that doesn’t win often with debut runners but has looked fairly athletic in morning trials and just might be able to run some. The J. Mullins-trained gelding breezed well while easily handling a workmate in a strong training track drill earlier this month and with Arch on the bottom side of his pedigree should be able to handle a distance of ground first time out. The numbers among the known element are considerably below par for the level, so we’ll gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play with a fresh face at 6-1 on the morning line.
Notable Workouts:
8-Bally’s Charm (October 3, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01h TT). Grade: B
Did well in team drill on training track with K P Krypton (5f, 1:01h TT) for J. Mullins, pressing that one outside and then coming away in the closing stages without undue pressure, final quarter mile in a sharp :25.2. California-bred gelding has some talent, seems fit, and should handle any surface and stay a middle distance if asked. Intriguing.
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