Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily “Workout Report, Analysis, and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Burgoo Alley; 2-Thrilling: 4-Brilliant Cut
Forecast: Thrilling returns to sprinting in the Unzip Me S. for 3-year-old fillies and offers a bit of value at 5-1 on the morning line. In her most recent outing over a mile on grass at Del Mar, she made the running while setting solid splits but was worn down late; today in this downhill turf dash the M. McCarthy-trained daughter of Uncle Mo projects to enjoy a pace pressing/stalking trip and then have her chance to quicken when the time is right. Also listed at a nice price (6-1) is Brilliant Cut, freshened since March but training like she’s fit and ready at San Luis Rey Downs for D’ O’Neill. She just missed at this level sprinting on turf last time out while settling off the pace and then producing a strong late kick that fell a nose short. Today, with clear sailing, she should be heard from in the closing stages. Burgoo Alley turns back from a couple of route tries, most recently a first-level allowance victory at Del Mar, but may be equally effective sprinting. She has enough early speed to gain a favorable ground-saving spot from her rail draw and on pure numbers is a major fit and strong contender. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play; based on the price we’ll give Thrilling a very slight edge on top.
Notable Workouts:
1-Burgoo Alley (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT). Grade: B+
Broke off a length in front inside of Perfectionist (same time) and finished head-and-head at the wire while under stout restraint most of the way, quite sharp for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.2. Continues to improve and appears ready for a top effort.
View Workout Video
8-Hamwood Flyer (Sept 27, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h TT. Grade: B
Very light coaxing through the lane while coming the final three furlongs in :11.3 and :35.4 for R. Baltas. Looks fit, displayed improving Irish form before being imported, has a right to fit at this level on this circuit.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Use: 3-Lone Scout; 6-Prince Abama
Forecast: Prince Abama rallied into the teeth of slow fractions when finishing a promising runner-up in his U.S. debut at Del Mar and with any kind of forward mover today the Irish-bred gelding should be along in time in this nine furlong grass event for older maidens. The P. D’Amato-trained son of Tamayuz retains U. Rispoli, but at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower he may not offer a whole lot of wagering value. Lone Scout, fourth in the same race our top pick exits, is a seven-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but he’s a solid fit on speed figures and has run well at this distance in the past. He’ll should at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Jacodra’s Devil; 4-Empire Pass
Forecast: Jacodra’s Devil is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Glatt, who shows excellent stats with this angle (19% with a flat-bet profit). The Smiling Tiger filly runs back for the same $32,000 price that she was taken for at Del Mar in mid-August, adds blinkers, and switches to A. Cedillo. With a clean break from the rail she should be prominent through and have every chance to earn her diploma in a modest field for the level. Empire Pass flashed good early speed before weakening to finish a distant third in her debut vs. maiden $40,000 foes last month at Del Mar and if she moves forward as expected with that bit of experience behind her the daughter of Honor Code can give our top pick a run for her money. The I. Kruljac-trained juvenile seems likely to clear this field in the opening quarter, and if left alone she could easily take this field gate to wire. We’ll give slight preference on top to Jacodra’s Devil but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Elusive Treat; 5-Mohawk King; 6-Lane Way
Forecast: Lane Way always has trained better than he’s run but the son of Into Mischief has looked especially sharp in his recent drills and could be a much better type this time around. The R. Mandella-trained four-year-old, away since January, returns as a first-time gelding and has run reasonably well in the past against far better company than he’s facing today. Sprinting on grass may be what he really wants to do and today will be the first time he gets the chance. Mohawk King turns back to a sprint, adds blinkers, and is another making his first start since being gelded. The Irish-bred sophomore has done well over this course and distance in the past and should at least hit the board. Elusive Treat probably is better than his morning line of 12-1 and is worth tossing in somewhere on your ticket. The J. Mullins-trained gelding makes his U.S. debut with a solid English resume that shows three wins and three seconds in just eight career starts and with Timeform Ratings that showed steady improvement before his importation. A recent solo five furlong training track drill (5f, 1:00h TT) should have him sharp and ready for a barn that generally does quite well with these European shippers.
Notable Workouts
2-Elusive Treat (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00h TT). Grade: B
Ridden a bit late and responded well enough in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, splits of :23.3, :36 flat and 1:00.1 on our watches, solid drill. Sophomore gelding is a good mover and should fit nicely in this circuit. Has all of his conditions.
View Workout Video
6-Lane Way (Sept. 23, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.2h). Grade: A-
Under restraint every step of the way while miles the best over Moonlight D’Oro (5f, 1:00.4h), full of run throughout and finishing out with plenty left, splits of :22.4, :48.1 and 1:00.3 from the half mile pole to the 7/8ths pole. Couldn’t have looked sharper, returning better than he left, for sure.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:03 PT Grade: B+
Use: 5-Ce Ce; 6-Bella Vita
Forecast: Ce Ce couldn’t handle Gamine in the Ballerina H.-G1 at Saratoga in late August, but this is a considerably easier assignment so we’re expecting the veteran mare to return to winning form in this year’s renewal of the Chillingworth S.-G3 at six and one-half furlongs for fillies and mares. A four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the M. McCarthy-trained daughter of Elusive Quality projects to settle into a stalking position and then go on with it when set down. Bella Vita, first or second in eight of 11 starts, is fresh from a career top victory at Del Mar when easily winning a first-level allowance sprint with a stakes-quality speed figure. Drawn comfortably outside and therefore able to dictate her trip, the California-bred daughter of Bayern will give our top selection plenty to worry about if she can turn in two alike.
Notable Workouts:
5-Ce Ce (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h). Grade: B
In company inside Offlee Naughty (5f, 1:01.1h) for M. McCarthy and left that on far behind in the final furlong while under light urging only, final quarter mile in :24.4. Maintains her edge, a cut below the top ones in the older filly and mare sprint division.
View Workout Video
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RACE 6: Post: 3:33 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Clare; 7-Warrens Candy Girl; 9-Eddie’s New Dream
Forecast: Warren’s Candy Girl is winless in four starts over the Santa Anita turf course, but she’s finished second three times and was a strong runner-up in a similar first-level allowance affair at Del Mar last time out. She likes to settle early and then blast home, and with any kind of help up front the daughter of Clubhouse Ride should be along in time. Big Clare is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her good rail draw and though disappointing as the favorite in the same race our top pick exits must be considered the one to fear most off her best effort. The P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Mr. Big should have no difficulty with today’s nine furlong trip and will be especially dangerous if she receives the patient ride she prefers. Eddie’s New Dream was a clever winner at this level over the Del Mar main track in August and today will try her luck on grass. Many of the Square Eddies improve on the lawn and if this B. Cecil-trained filly steps forward on the sod she’ll be a major player right back. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Warrens Candy Girl.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:03 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Sir London; 2-Winning Map
Forecast: Winning Map has trained like a rocket ship for B. Baffert and appears fit, ready, and cranked up for a winning effort first crack out of the box. The juvenile son of Liam’s Map brought $525,000 at the OBS March Sale, where he smoked a quarter mile in :20 3/5, and everything he’s done in the morning since arriving West indicates he’s the Real McCoy. Sir London can run as well and may be worth including on a back-up ticket. The Malibu Moon colt was sold for $700,000 at Timonium in May after breezing a furlong in a quick :10 flat, and with a clean break from his rail post position he should make his presence felt throughout.
Notable Workouts:
1-Sir London (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 3f, 36.2h). Grade: B+
Much best over Saddle Up Jessie (3f, :37hg) in gate drill for S. Callaghan while under wraps every step of the way and able to go considerably faster if permitted, splits of :24.3 and :36.2 and our watches, very nice move. Good-moving, athletic colt by Malibu Moon brought $700,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale and it’s easy to see why.
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2-Winning Map (Sept. 27, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: A-
Smoker in Baffert barn was best with Bronn (same time) while breezing throughout in half mile gate drill, splits of :23.1, :34.3 and :47.1 on our watches, able to go considerably faster if turned loose. Very fast colt for sure and looks like an early win type.
View Workout Video
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RACE 8: Post: 4:34 PT Grade: B+
Single: 4-Mackinnon
Forecast: There is really no reason why Mackinnon can’t extend his winning streak to three in this year’s renewal of the Zuma Beach S. for juveniles. The son of American Pharoah just won a similar one mile grass stakes at Del Mar with absolute authority, and while he’s not particularly fast on speed figures nothing else in here is, either. We’re expecting the D. O’Neill-trained colt to settle in the second flight and then kick home when asked, just as he did last time out and in his maiden win before that. At 8/5 on the morning line he’ll probably not offer a whole lot of wagering value, but we can use him with some degree of confidence as a logical rolling exotic single.
Notable Workouts:
4-Mackinnon (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1h). Grade: B+
Broke off outside a length behind Today’s Flavor (4f, :47.3h) and finished more than a length clear at the wire while motoring home nicely under mild urging, splits of :23 flat and :47.1, strong in the closing stages and galloping out quite well. Impressive drill considering he prefers grass. Onward and upward.
View Workout Video
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RACE 9: Post: 5:06 PT Grade: A-
Single: 3-Private Mission
Forecast: Private Mission has won three of her four career starts, none more impressive than her dominating victory in the listed Torrey Pine S. at Del Mar in mid-August. The daughter of Into Mischief went toe-to-toe with Lady Mystify, easily disposed of that one (she was beaten 17 lengths), and that had the form franked when Lady Mystify in her next outing easily captured in the Remington Park Oaks-G3. ‘Mission projects to be on or near the lead throughout in this year’s edition of the Zenyatta S.-G2 for trainer B. Baffert and will offer considerable wagering value in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single at 5/2 on the morning line, though we suspect she’ll go quite a bit lower.
Notable Workouts:
3-Private Mission (Sept. 26, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.4h). Grade: B
Was slightly best inside As Time Goes By (4f, :47.3h), breaking off a length in front and finishing head-and-head at the wire while going the easier of the two in sharp style for B. Baffert. Continues to improve with experience and maturity.
View Workout Video
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RACE 10: Post: 5:38 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Helens Well; 6-Brandon’smylawyer; 10-Dolly May; 11-Sterling Crest
Forecast: The Surfer Girl S. for juvenile fillies over a mile on grass is a challenging affair that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Helens Well and Dolly May, second and third place finishers behind the loose-on-the-lead winning Liam’s Dove in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar last month, both should be major players once again. ‘Well enjoyed a good trip, was getting to the winner when time ran out, and will appreciate today’s projected quicker early pace that will promote her late running style. Dolly May appeared a bit green when rallying through the lane – she was lugging in and on her wrong lead) – but in what will be just her third career start the J. Sadler-trained Irish-bred filly has every right to be more experienced and more professional today. Brandon’smylawyer and Sterling Crest, the one-two debut finishers for trainer R. Baltas in a strong, productive maiden turf sprint at Del Mar in early September, each displayed considerable ability and act like they’ll handle today’s two-turn trip.
