Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-In Vronsky Style; 3-Beaudacious
Forecast: Beaudacious stretches out for the first time in this state-bred maiden turf miler and based on pedigree the son of Karakontie should enjoy the added distance. A repeat of his race before last probably will be good enough to win. In Vronsky Style hit the front too soon and weakened late when a fairly promising second in his debut. He returns for a barn that shows superior stats with the second-time starter angle and with patient handling the P. D’Amato-trained gelding could step forward considerably and be the one to fear most.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Vronsky Zips Away; 5-La V.; 6-Bristol Bayou
Forecast: Vronsky Zips Away switches to dirt, shortens from a mile, and drops into a bottom-rung claimer from straight maiden company. If she can run, this would be a good spot to show it, and recent workouts indicate that the C. Gaines-trained filly has enough ability to be highly-competitive against this group. Bristol Bayou is guaranteed a soft trip from her cozy outside draw and the daughter of Carpe Diem should have every chance to earn her diploma in her 14th career start. She drops to her lowest level ever and has consistently earned speed figures that are better than par for this levels. La V. is another dropping to the maiden $20,000 level for the first time with figures that give her a look. In a field with little early speed signed on, the L. Powell-trained daughter of Midnight Lute should find herself on or near the lead throughout.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:12 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Du Jour; 3-Hubris
Forecast: Du Jour rates top billing in this five-runner turf allowance miler but we’ll also include Hubris on our ticket as well. Du Jour did what was expected when graduating at 40 cents on the dollar over this course and distance last month and has trained quite well since, so we expect the son of Temple City to produce a significant forward move today. He’ll likely enjoy the same type of pace-stalking trip he did in his maiden victory. Hubris didn’t have a whole lot behind him when beating a maiden $50,000 field over the local lawn in his second career start but visually he was quite impressive while controlling the race on the front end. If he’s handed the lead again without pressure, he may never look back. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Du Jour on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:45 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Call Nine One One; 4-Coastal King
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable affair, a lackluster maiden $30,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds. Call Nine One One was given a run in his debut against maiden $50,000 foes on turf and today should get serious against this very modest band. The son of Graydar had shown some ability in the morning prior to that first outing so at 6-1 on the morning line he may be worth a small gamble. Coastal King, a distant third at 38-1 in a similar affair last month, earned a number that makes him a threat today. With any kind of forward move, the V. Belvoir-trained gelding will be right there. We’ll use just these two in our rolling exotics, but not with any great degree of confidence, so perhaps the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:18 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Holy Emperor; 6-Ox Bridge
Forecast: Maiden $50,000 claiming older horses meet over a mile on grass in a race that appears to have two main players. Holy Emperor, second at this level over nine furlongs last month, shortens to a mile while retaining F. Prat and has trained quite well since his most recent outing. He’s a 10-race maiden but has numbers that are good enough to win, so if he can turn in two alike the son of Street Sense should be set to graduate. Ox Bridge shows the blinkers off angle that we like and should be expected to move forward after finishing a willing third in a recent turf sprint in his first outing since September of 2019. With any kind of improvement, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding will be the one to fear most.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:48 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Adare; 4-Magic On Tap; 5-Palace Coup
Forecast: Adare was given a sprint tightener in his first-off-a-layoff two weeks ago and is wheeled back for the money run in this first-level allowance main track miler that came up fairly salty. The son of Medaglia d’Oro was quite sharp in a six furlong workout just six days ago and is reunited with “win rider” R. Gonzalez while being assured of a ground-saving trip from his favorable rail draw. Magic On Tap, away since September of 2019, has trained in outstanding fashion for his comeback, and since he won his debut we know he can fire fresh. Fast enough on speed figures and still well-regarded despite now being 5-years-old, the son of Tapit picks up F. Prat and should draft into a stalking position and then have every chance. Palace Coup projects as the controlling speed in his West Coast debut for P. D’Amato. On pure numbers he’s a fit and there’s a strong likelihood that his improving pattern will continue for this high percentage outfit. We’ll have rolling exotic tickets that include all three and then we’ll press with Adare in the win pool.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:18 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Mongolian Mission; 7-Velvet; 8-Whistler’s Style; 10-Damn the Torpedoes
Forecast: Let’s include some price chances along with the logical top pick in this grass grab bag miler for maiden 3-year-old fillies. Velvet hit the board in her first two starts and retains F. Prat, but she did fail at 6/5 when third in a modest affair last month and this group appears on paper to be tougher. That said, the daughter of American Pharoah shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern for trainer R. Mandella, who excels with this angle, and recent workouts indicate a significant forward move is likely. Whistler’s Style, Damn the Torpedoes, and Mongolian Mission all are listed at 12-1 on the morning line and we suspect each will outrun those odds. ‘Style shortens up to what we believe will be a more favorable trip and looked sharp in a recent drill; ‘Torpedoes walked out of the gate and lost all chance in her sprint debut but closed a gap and continues to train like a filly with ability; and ‘Mission is bred to improve a ton on both sides of her pedigree on grass and may be much better than her second place finish in a maiden $50,000 main track affair in her debut gives her credit for.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:48 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Major Cabbie; 5-Ax Man
Forecast: Major Cabbie had a right to be a bit rusty in the San Carlos S.-G2 in his first start in 15 months but performed well when fourth without being knocked about (see Black Book segment) and seems certain to be fitter and sharper today on the stretch out. The P. Miller-trained horse does his best when on or near the lead throughout and should get the aggressive ride he requires from A. Cedillo. Ax Man is a five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, and while you can never been quite sure when he’s going to show up with his “A” game the son of Misremembered has looked especially sharp in recent drills and appears primed for one of his good ones. In a tough and competitive edition of the Santana Mile, each of the six entrants has credentials to win, so you may want to spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive and advance using just two.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:18 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Bam Bam Again; 3-Next Revolt; 10-Threearchbaymafia
Forecast: The finale is a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 extended sprint that has at least three contenders to consider in rolling exotic play. Next Revolt retains F. Prat in his first start since being claimed by R. Hess, Jr., and while he’s been beaten three times as the favorite in his last six starts the son of Revolutionary has numbers that fit and a style that should suit this seven furlong trip. Threearchbaymafia isn’t particularly fast on figures but he’s guaranteed a cozy stalking trip from his outside draw and is lightly raced with the potential for some improvement. Bam Bam Again is just 1-for-16 in his career but is a first-time gelding, so on that angle alone he’s probably worth tossing in somewhere at 10-1 on the morning line.
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