Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Tampa Bay Downs
Wednesday, May 13, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Happy Wanderer; 5-Completely Bonkers; 6-Tiz Samurai
Forecast: The Wednesday Tampa Bay Downs opener is a challenging two-turn restricted $5,000 claimer for older horses. Completely Bonkers is unproven over fast conventional dirt, having just started just five times in a 41-race career on the main track, three of which came on a wet surface. He drops to his lowest level ever for a high-percentage outfit and has several recent numbers that are stronger than par for this class, so if he has at least one good one left the veteran son of Giacomo should be hard to deny at 3-1 on the morning line. Of course, in a cheap claimer like this, current conditions is everything, so what happened last time out or a few races back may not mean much. Happy Wanderer is facing his easiest foes ever but has never raced on a dirt surface. The son of War Chant lands the rail, has good tactical speed for a solid barn and should be forwardly placed and free of trouble every step of the way. Tiz Samurai is more than good enough off his best race but his recent form has been a bit below standard. From the strong D. Bennett barn, the veteran gelding is yet another racing cheaper than he ever has and seems likely to try gate to wire tactics. First or second in six of 12 career outings over the local main track and switching to top jockey D. Centeno, the son of First Samurai may be slowly rounding back to shape in what is his fourth start off a layoff. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Completely Bonkers.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 8-Faster Chi Chi; 10-R Kiss Em Goodbye
Forecast: R Kiss Em Goodbye is listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite and seems likely to go lower in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming dash for older fillies and mares. The Gulfstream Park shipper just won a $16,000 (nw-2) off-the-turf sprint with a speed figure that far exceeds par for this level and from the high percentage G. Baxter barn the daughter of Adios Charlie can dictate the race flow from her favorable outsider under leading rider A. Gallardo. As a saver or a back-up, you may want to consider Feisty Chi Chi, a class-dropper with the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and a deep-closing threat if a faster-than-expected early pace materializes.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Imaginary Friend; 10-Nagini
Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in this maiden $16,000 claimer over a mile on grass for fillies and mares. Imaginary Friend returns to her claim level and looks capable of producing the last run if given the patient ride she appears to prefer. Her third place performance two runs back in a maiden $32,000 affair over this course and distance charts best against this softer crew. Nagini is drawn a bit farther out than is ideal but the daughter of Candy Ride, a closing fourth as the favorite in a similar affair last month, probably has a bit of improvement in her. With some help up front she could be the most effective of the closing types. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the edge on top going to Imaginary Friend.
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RACE 4: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Branco Maria; 2-Onward; 3-Falkirk
Forecast: The main contention in this maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds is drawn inside, with top billing going to the Gulfstream Park shipper Onward. The son of Street Sense, exiting a series of much stronger races but a beaten favorite last time out, should greatly enjoy this softer assignment while adding blinkers for the first time. The C. Clement-trained invaders have been powerful of late and this colt’s natural early speed should make him tough to beat. Branco Maria is a first-timer from the M. Stidham barn with a healthy series of works to his credit, so despite his disadvantageous rail draw we’ll consider him a “must use” in the rolling exotics. A $385,000 Saratoga yearling, the son of Candy Ride may need more ground before showing his best, but could be live at this trip, nonetheless. Falkirk didn’t get any play in his debut in a hot race at Churchill Downs in his only outing last summer but ran okay, lagging early but then finding his best stride late to finish a respectable fifth. He returns for I. Wilkes (strong stats with come-backers) with some nice drills at Lambholm South training center and with top rider A. Gallardo taking the call the son of Cairo Prince could be a much improved type this time around.
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RACE 5: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Beachtreasuregirl; 6-Premier Justice; 10-Langue Liee
Forecast: We’ll spread the fifth race, a mile grass affair for restricted (nw-2) $10,000 claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as you can afford to. Beachtreasuregirl seems as good as any, though her low percentage connections hardly inspire confidence. The daughter of Treasure Beach is guaranteed a good ground-saving trip from her favorable rail post and though winless in five tries over the local lawn shows some decent local races that chart very well at this level. Premier Justice hails from a good barn and probably is a bit more dangerous than her morning line of 10-1 suggests. This will be her first career start on grass, and while her pedigree doesn’t suggest massive improvement is likely with the switch in surface she figures to be a late factor with her best effort. The rider doesn’t win many, though. Langue Liee is stuck way outside but is a contender after gamely beating maidens sprinting on dirt 13 days ago. She’ll probably be part of the pace throughout and could stick around for at least a share if the race-flow turns up in her favor. Use her somewhere as a back-up.
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RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Exclusive Donald; 5-Esor
Forecast: This maiden-claiming $10,000 abbreviated sprint offers is light in contention with Esor the obvious top pick. With steadily improving form, the son of Rattlesnake Bridge has dangerous early speed and rising speed figures, and at this shortened trip he may be able to shake loose early and keep on going. Exclusive Donald is a first-timer with good connections and has trained well enough to warrant a look in a very soft field. Trainer T. Hamm is solid with debut runners, so this Exclusive Quality gelding should be competitive, at the very least .
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RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sundrenched; 5-Classy of Course
Forecast: Classy of Course, first or second in four of seven career starts over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course, has recent speed figures that fit nicely in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares. She is most effective from a stalking position but can win on the front end as well, so D. Centeno can assess the early pace flow and adjust his strategy if necessary. Sundrenched may be the most dangerous of the deep closers and will appreciate any help she can get up front. Both of her career victories have been accomplished over the local lawn and after being reunited with “win rider” A. Suarez the daughter of Get Stormy looks very much like a major player.
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RACE 8: Post 4:30 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Credit Cycle; 9-Bueno Bueno Bueno
Forecast: We’ll double the eighth race, a seven furlong restricted (nw-3) $8,000 seller for older horses. Bueno Bueno Bueno is most effective as a late-running sprinter and should enjoy this extended sprint trip. The I. Wilkes-trained gelding just beat a lesser field over a sloppy track after shipping up from Gulfstream Park and in fact both of his victories were accomplished on a wet surface, but he does have good form on fast going as well plus numbers that can win in this league. We’ll also include, at least as a saver, Credit Cycle, in the frame in his last four starts and with a right to fire another big shot despite making a negative jockey switch for a low percentage barn.
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RACE 9: Post 5:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Uncork the Bottle; 4-Matty’s Express; 10-Valiant Virtue
Forecast: The finale is an intriguing starter optional claimer over a mile on grass that has several possibilities. Uncork the Bottle was stakes-placed on grass at Gulfstream Park two races back, and a repeat of that race today should be good enough. A distant fifth over the all-weather at Turfway Park in the Rushaway Stakes in mid-March, the son of Colonel John returns following a nice recent three-furlong blowout and picks up D. E. Centeno, so there should be no excuses as the morning line 2-1 favorite. Matty’s Express seeks his third straight score while moving into tougher company but has rising speed figures and three prior scores over the local awn. Like our top pick, this improved gelding does his best work with patient handling. Valiant Virtue will have to overcome the extreme outside draw, but after finishing a close second to Matty’s Express while battling on the pace throughout the First Dude gelding catches a field with a bit less heat and could be tough on the front end if he can clear on his own.
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