Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Sunday, August 11, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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Today’s Bullet Drills: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Stealthediamonds
Forecast: Stealthediamonds, in her first start for high-percentage Wong, represents dangerous inside speed and if she breaks quickly and clears, the daughter of Unusual Heat could be tough to run down. She gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Velez and at this shortened five furlong coupled with a drop into a $50,000 claimer she seems primed for a major effort. At 3-1 on the morning line she offers value as a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Ohtani; 5-Drink
Forecast: Ohtani takes a significant drop from maiden $50,000 to the $32,000 level and appears to have found a field he can handle. The W. Spawr-trained gelding has solid recent numbers that are better than par for this level and should settle into the second flight and be ready to pounce when it matters. Drink is a “must use” and the one to fear most. Nosed out in a maiden claimer miler at Los Alamitos last time out, the son of Stay Thirsty gets a significant weight break with the switch to bug boy Diaz and should be on or near the lead throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to Ohtani.
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RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Overdue; 7-Kazan
Forecast: Overdue, a closing third while earning a strong, career-top speed figure in a similar affair last month, gets an extra half-furlong to work with today while switching to M. Smith and adding blinkers for the first time. With two nice works since raced, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding seem set for another forward move, one that should land him in the winner’s circle. Kazan is worth including in your rolling exotics, at least a saver. He’s a first-off-the-claim for D. O’Neill and has two prior wins over the local lawn, and while he was beaten at even money when facing $40,000 foes last time out, a creepy-crawler pace compromised his late kick and the Irish-bred gelding actually did well to finish as close as he did.
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RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Inspiressa; 7-Bast; 8-America’s Surprise
Forecast: This hot maiden juvenile sprint for fillies is loaded with talent. Top billing goes to America’s Surprise, a debuting daughter of American Pharoah from the dam of Songbird who has worked very impressively (view video) for J. Hollendorfer leading up to this race. Drawn comfortably outside under M. Smith, she appears to be made of the proper material but will need to bring her best stuff considering the opposition. Bast, a hotshot first-timer from the B. Baffert barn, has performed like a quality prospect in the a.m. and was especially impressive in an easy five furlong team gate work last weekend (view video), when she breezed furlongs in 1:00 2/5 seconds and could have gone faster if permitted. The daughter of Uncle Mo brought $500,000 as a yearling and looks the part. Inspiressa, an $850,000 2-year-old in training purchase in Florida in March, is bred for intense speed on both sides of her pedigree and appears primed and ready for the Sadler/Espinoza team. She’s flat-out fast (see video). We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying America’s Surprise on top.
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RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Winding; 5-Testimony
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden $20,000 older claimers compete over seven furlongs. We’ll go-two in our rolling exotics in a rather shallow affair, with top billing going to Testimony, in the money in his last pair with steadily rising speed figures. The son of Ministers Wild Cat should have enough speed to be on near the lead throughout and in a field without any known effective closer should be able to stick it out. We’ll also toss in Winding, second in his last pair and a fit on speed figures. The S. Sherman-trained son of Coil gets a major jockey switch to J. Talamo and has enough early speed to be properly placed just off the leaders and have every chance from there.
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RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Give Me the Lute
Forecast: Give Me the Lute was visually quite impressive breaking his maiden over this course and distance last month while doing so with a career-top Beyer speed figure and there’s every reason to believe he’ll continue to improve as he matures and develops. The son of Boisterous has excellent tactical speed to allow F. Prat to be either on the front end or in a stalking position, free of trouble, and following a couple of nice half mile breezes (view video) since raced the P. Miller-trained 3-year-old should be able to take this class hike in stride. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Anonymity
Forecast: Anonymity hasn’t always been one to trust –she’s been beaten at odds-on in three of her eight career starts – but her form over the Del Mar main track is outstanding, and after finishing a close third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint the five-year-old mare really should out class this field. The R. Mandella-trained daughter of Tapit was a strong runner-up to Marley’s Freedom in the Great Lady M. Stakes at Los Alamitos in her seasonal debut last month and has trained well since, so we’re expecting she’ll run at least as well if not better today. As a saver, we’ll consider adding to our rolling exotic ticket Danuska’s My Girl, listed at 7/2 on the ML. Fourth in the Great Lady M but benefitting from a five pound weight shift with Anonymity, she’s a two-time winner over the Del Mar main track and should fire her best shot from the advantageous outside post.
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RACE 8: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tacocat; 6-Marci the Great; 10-Savvy Gal
Forecast: Tacocat finished a respectable third in her debut in a very hot race and today stretches out to a distance she should be able to handle and a course she’s bred to like. R. Bejarano stays aboard the daughter of Tale of the Cat for a barn that has good stats with second-time starters. From her rail post she’s a real threat to take this this field gate to wire. Marci the Great is a first-timer at 20-1 on the morning line and we suspect she’s a bit better than that. The California-bred daughter of Empire Way has shown some ability in her morning trials (view video) and acts like she’ll enjoy this two-turn trip. Savvy Gal has been working out of sight/out of mind at San Luis Rey Downs, but the tab looks fairly solid for the daughter of Street Sense. The R. Baltas barn has weak stats with first-timers but for all we know this filly can run some so we’ll toss her in.
