Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, August 10, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View video
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Today’s Bullet Drills: View Video
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Today’s Fun in the Sun Tournament Preview: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Startup Nation; 5-Wicked Freud
Forecast: Startup Nation has been away since November of 2017 but the C. Brown barn hits with 28% of its comebackers and this former Grade-1 stakes performance is realistically spotted in this $25,000 state-bred claimer. From the rail and with J. Rosario taking the call, the veteran gelding looks very much like a live item. He is a two-time winner over the Saratoga turf course and has a work tab with the barn’s second string at Monmouth Park that should have him fit enough. Wicked Freud remains well-above his $8,000 claim level for J. Servis, so we’ll assume the class-dropping gelding remains in good shape. He likes to settle early and produce a late run, and with numbers that are good enough to beat this field he’s the one to save with in case ‘Nation isn’t what he used to be.
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RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Bassman Dave; 7-The Joke’s On You; 9-Quiet Out East
Forecast: The Joke’s On You may have improvement in him that the others don’t – this will just his second career start and his debut wasn’t bad – plus the C. Baker barn has superior stats with second-time starting maidens. With a recent bullet five furlong workout over the Saratoga training track, he should be primed for a significant forward move, one that could easily be good enough to win this maiden special weight state-bred sprint. Quiet Out East has had seven chances without winning and may be a bit difficult to trust, but the C. Clement-trained gelding, second in his last three, should be a factor from off the pace. A repeat of his race before last probably will be good enough. Bassman Dave, freshened since late June, has a good stalking style and projects to enjoy a trouble-free trip and have every chance from the top of the lane to wire. He’s not very generous under pressure, but none of the rest of these are, either.
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RACE 3: Post 2:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Summer to Remember; 7-Decorated Invader
Forecast: Two-year-olds compete over a distance of ground on grass in today’s third race. With plenty of question marks to deal with, we’ll spread in rolling exotic play. Decorated Invader has the benefit of a prior run over this turf course; he rallied against slow fractions to wind up second last month and has been kept on edge since that outing with a couple of easy breezes on grass. We’re expecting the son of Declaration of War to produce a forward and graduate today, unless there’s a good thing waiting in the wings. That “good thing” might be Summer to Remember, a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn (a strong 23% with debut runners). The son of Summer Front is bred to run long on the lawn and has trained like he’s fit and ready. Assuming he breaks well from the rail, the $200,000 weanling purchase should draft into an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip and then have every chance when it counts. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Decorated Invader.
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RACE 4: Post 2:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Elios Milos; 5-Running Violence; 8-Wicked One
Forecast: Wicked One finally found a maiden claiming field he could beat and did so last month over this main track while earning a number that makes him a major player right back in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 sprint. The Hat Trick gelding used to flash good speed and then fade, but now that he’s learned to settle off the pace and produce a run he’s liable to string some good races together. Elios Milos must overcome the rail post, and since he lacks good gate speed he might be asking for traffic trouble before the field hits the far turn. If he can negotiate a decent trip the lightly raced son of Dublin could make a late run for it. Running Violence is a first-time gelding with some early speed in a race that on paper doesn’t have a whole lot. Freshened since May and from a barn that does well with layoff runners, the 4-year-old gelding seems worth including in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post 3:21 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Tumbling Sky
Forecast: Tumbling Sky, a $200,000 Timonium May sale purchase, breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds over the bullring and looked super doing it. From the first crop of the fast and precocious Competitive Edge, this colt has a modest female family so he clearly was purchased for performance, not pedigree. Locally, he has been highly impressive in the morning for S. Asmussen, who hits at 21% with a flat-bet profit with his first timers, and main man R. Santana, Jr. takes the call. To be sure, this a hot maiden race with several highly-regarded prospects, but from what we’ve seen, Tumbling Sky is the quickest and best of the lot. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post 4:01 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Turf War; 5-Catch a Thrill
Forecast: Catch A Thrill, in her first start in more than three months, was very well-meant in a similar first-level allowance sprint over this course and distance earlier this meeting but missed by a neck after a less than ideal trip. With that tightener under her belt and the switch to J. Rosario, the daughter of City Zip should be primed for a major effort, and with good racing luck seems capable of producing the last run. Turf War, a closing third in the same race Catch a Thrill exits, finished less than length behind her rival in that mid-July affair in what was her U.S. debut and her first outing since last October. The C. Brown-trained daughter of War Front has every right to improve off that outing (this barn hits at 20% with second-off-layoff plays) and shows two healthy half mile workouts since that race. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Catch a Thrill on top.
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RACE 7: Post 4:36 ET. Grade: B
Single: 7-Gozilla
Forecast: Most maiden special weight juvenile sprints at Saratoga have several top prospects to consider, but this race seems a little soft on talent. You can spread the race in rolling exotic play using as many as you can afford; however, our strategy is to take a stand by singling Gozilla, a first-timer from the S. Asmussen barn. The son of Flatter has put together an impressive work tab, including a bullet five furlong gate move (59 seconds flat, fastest of 36) in late July and before that had registered a number of significant drills both at Saratoga and at Keeneland. A $150,000 Fasig-Tipton yearling buy from last year, he is out a full-sister to the good grass horse Stormy Atlantic, but he’s shown enough in his main track breezes to warrant a chance on dirt first time out. At 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post 5:11 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Green Light Go
Forecast: Green Light Go was super impressive beating a next-out winner in his debut last month at Belmont Park, finishing like a colt who will do nothing but improve as the distances increase. The son of Hard Spun has looked spectacular in the morning since that race and at this extended sprint distance, which provides the J. Jerkens-trained colt an extra furlong to work with, he should make short work of these rivals. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 5:47 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Uni; 4-Raging Bull
Forecast: Uni has won her last five races – all stakes races – and we don’t expect to see that streak stopped today, even though today she’ll be facing the boys. She actually defeated colts in a listed stakes in France in 2017 so we doubt the daughter of More Than Ready will be intimated. If fact, she’ll probably enjoy the six pound break in the weights she’s getting off her facile score in the Perfect Stings Stakes in late June. The winner of the Sands Point S.-G2 at the Spa two years ago, she’s never been better with perhaps better to come. Uni’s C. Brown-trained stable mate Raging Bull always has been a cut below the best in the older turf division but he’s a perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga turf course, both graded stakes races, so you have to include him in you rolling exotics, though at 5/2 on the morning line preference on top remains with Uni.
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RACE 10: Post 6:21 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Alisio; 4-La Chancla; 8-Stonesintheroad
Forecast: Aliso has been away since breaking her maiden in the mud last December in a fast, highly-rated affair. If she returns as well as she left – and if she’s as good on dry land as she is on the wet stuff – the K. McLaughlin-trained daughter of Ghostzapper can pick up where she left off in this better-than-par first-level allowance sprint for fillies and mares. La Chancla graduated with a good, competitive speed figure last month at Belmont Park in just her second career start and is very likely to continue to improve with experience. A recent bullet five furlong drill over the Saratoga training track is further evidence that she’s moving in the right direction and could easily be this good right now. The daughter of Uncle Mo doesn’t have a lot of early zip but can turn it on late. Stonesintheroad was below her best in her last pair, a distant second as the favorite in a Finger Lakes stakes race and before that far back in a New York Stallion Stakes event at Aqueduct over a sloppy track she clearly didn’t handle. This will be her first start in seven weeks, and with switch to L. Saez the daughter of Bustin Stones could easily snap back.
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RACE 11: Post 6:55 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Blue Parrot
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with a 12-1 long shot and single Blue Parrot and hope that for the first time in his career the son of Bodemeister decides to break with his field. The L. Rice-trained gelding has been victimized by self-caused trouble in his first two races, and if he pulls the same stunt again today he’ll most likely give himself little to no chance in this five and one-half furlong state-bred maiden claiming sprint. Last time, after a poor break, he flashed surprising speed to rush up in heavy track, only to be shut off repeatedly down the backstretch, and then, after being shuffled back to the rear of the field, angled far wide for the run through the lane and made steady progress to wind seventh, beaten less than sixth lengths, before galloping out strongly past the wide. With the switch to this barn’s “go-to” rider J. Lezcano, ‘Parrot gives every indication that he’ll produce another forward move, one that could be good enough to pull off a major surprise if he can correct his gate issues. At the price, it’s worth a gamble in what on paper looks like a wide-open, grass grab bag.
