Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Thursday, August 1, 2019
*
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
*
Today’s Day Makers: Click to view
*
*
RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: C+
Single: 10-Dan the Man Can
Forecast: This maiden special weight turf sprint for juveniles is restricted to those that sold for or were RNA’d at $45,000 or less. The first timers aren’t inspiring on paper but that doesn’t mean one or more aren’t capable of winning a wide open, grass grab bag. We’ll stick with the known element, Dan the Man Can, who flashed speed in a similar affair on dirt in his debut last month before weakening to finish third while earning a decent speed. It’s hard to say he’ll improve with the switch to turf, but he may not have to. We’ll make him a very shaky single by default; it’s either him or anybody else in a race that requires plenty of guesswork.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Clairvoyant Lady; 4-Long Island
Forecast: Long Island has captured five of her last six starts, most recently with a career-top 100 Beyer speed figure which, if repeated today, most likely will land her in the winner’s circle again. She comes up from Florida and joins the high-percentage D. Gargan barn, so her effectiveness shouldn’t slip despite the change in scenery. Additionally, she should have no difficulty assuming her preferred role as the controlling speed. While most of her best races have come over wet tracks – she’s a certified mud freak – the daughter of Greatness has won four times over a dry surface so no matter what the weather is like she should be hard to catch. Clairvoyant Lady, first off the claim for Rudy (29% with a flat-bet profit), has been freshened since late May and has put together a steady, healthy series of easy drills to keep her on edge. In the money in 21 of 27 career outings, the thoroughly genuine daughter of Astrology projects to draft in behind ‘Island to the head of the lane and then have every chance to wear that one down when it counts. However, based on pure numbers, she’s either going to have to improve a bunch or Long Island will need to regress to bring the two together. Preference on top goes to Long Island but we’ll have a few tickets saving with Clairvoyant Lady in our rolling exotics.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Bahamian Prince
Forecast: Bahamian Prince looks like a sneaky Monmouth Park shipper for K. Breen (strong stats with debut runners) and in this maiden $50,000 claimer for juveniles in which the known element looks ordinary this newcomer could be a standout. Though his printed work tab is light and doesn’t contain any flashy works, he did blaze a quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds – the fastest recorded drill during the preview session – at the OBS June sale. The stable’s go-to rider P. Lopez shows up for the mount, and we suspect the entourage is here to win. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to his morning line of 4-1.
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Eighty Seven North; 3-Two Graces; Pecatonica; Molly’s Nighthawk
Forecast: This state-bred maiden claiming turf router for fillies and mares is borderline inscrutable. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. We’ll go four deep and hope that’s enough. Pecatonica is unexposed (just two career starts) and goes for the always-potent Clement/Rosario team. She should be on or near the lead throughout. Two Graces is a one-paced grinder but will likely draft into a comfortable second-flight spot and then have her chance when it matters. Eleven Seven North shows up in a claimer for the first time has numbers than make her competitive. Molly’s Nighhawk has been getting closer with each start and may have another forward move in her.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Tiple; 7-Galadriel’s Light
Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs on turf in a race that we’ve boiled down to two main players. Galadriel’s Light broke her maiden sprinting on turf at Belmont Park two runs back in decent fashion and then finished fourth when sent a distance of ground at this level last time out, stalking the pace but weakening under pressure late. She’s back sprinting today and should regain her best form given the second flight, stalking trip that she’ll likely draft into under regular rider J. Ortiz. Tiple comes off a clever maiden $40,000 claiming win on turf at Belmont Park in mid-June while earning a number that should make her highly competitive at this level. She’s an off-the-pace type that wilil be heard from in the final furlong, assuming I Ortiz can negotiate a good trip through traffic. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Eddy Dirt; 3-Gray Nile; 6-Curlin’s Knight
Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track claimer over nine furlongs. Gray Nile is a class-dropping Kentucky invader who won a race here last year with Beyer speed figure (80) that would be more than good enough to beat this field. This is the cheapest he’s ever run for and he’s reunited with “win rider” Saez, so the son of Pioneerof the Nile has plenty going for him and deserves top billing. Maryland shipper Curlin’s Knight ran reasonably well when third on grass at Laurel in late June and always has been better on dirt, so in this soft spot the J. Engelhart-trained gelding is a strong contender. He isn’t necessarily a front-running type but has tactical speed, and in a race that projects to be slowly run early he should fold into a good trip under J. Ortiz and have every chance to grind away. Eddy Dirt lands the rail and can be the controlling speed if he wants to be. He’s a 3-year-old facing older and his recent speed figures have stagnated, but if sent from the start to establish the pace the son of Violence might get brave.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Lovely La La; 7-Dynamite Kitten
Forecast: The C. Brown-trained Lovely La La getsa chance to make amends after missing at 50 cents on the dollar when runner-up in a similar state-bred second level middle distance turf event for fillies and mares last month at Belmont Park. She equaled her career top speed figure in defeat, so she ran her race but was simply second best. Dynamite Kitten didn’t get the clearest of runs when a close seventh over a softened turf course here last month and could improve enough to pose a serious threat, so we’ll use her in as well.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:16 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mighty Scarlett; 5-My Sister Nat
Forecast: My Sister Nat was beaten at 4/5 in her U.S. debut when a closing third at Belmont Park in a similar second-level turf affair at Belmont Park in June. However, the C. Brown barn hits at 27% with second-off-layoff runners and this time we’re expecting Castellano, who rides her back, to give her less to do after falling too far behind off slow splits in that race. A Group-3 winner at Longchamp last year as a 3-year-old, the daughter of Acclamation simply should out class this field. Mighty Scarlett is solid on numbers and is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn, so we’ll include her on a ticket or two as a back-up, but the main punch in the rolling exotics goes to My Sister Nat.
*
*
RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Marconi; 8-Rocketry
Forecast: The featured Birdstone Stakes is a mile and three-quarters main track marathon that once again brings together Marconi and Rocketry, who know each other well. Marconi defeated his chief rival in both the Flat Out Stakes and the Brooklyn Invitational, a pair of long distance events at Belmont Park, but there wasn’t much separating them so Rocketry could easily turn the tables today. This is a good race to watch and enjoy, not so much to play, but for the purposes of the rolling exotics we’ll include both while giving Marconi a very slight edge on top.
*
*
RACE 10: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Waynes Footsteps
Forecast: State-bred older maidens meet over a mile on the inner turf in the Thursday nightcap. Waynes Footsteps launches a comeback for new trainer B. Cox (strong stats with this angle) and very likely will be a better type now than what he was as a 2-year-old. The Central Banker colt was a good runner-up over this turf course sprinting as a 2-year-old, and a recent strong Saratoga training track workout (48 4/5 seconds, fastest of 34) catches the eye. At 7/2 on the morning line he offers considerable value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. For protection
