Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Today’s Day Makers: View Video
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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Vangogo; 8-Tandalicious; 9-Bellazano
Forecast: The opener is a treacherous maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but without a great deal of confidence. Bellazano is favorably drawn outside and finds a soft spot in her first start since arriving from the Midwest. Eligible to the lucrative ship and win purse bonus, the Ruis-trained filly brings with her gradually rising speed figures and catches a field she seems capable of competing with. A couple of easy five furlong drills over the Del Mar main track should have her fit enough. Tandalicious drops to a realistic spot in her first outing since last September for a capable outfit and showed enough ability last year to warrant a strong look in this modest affair. She’s worked reasonably well of late and could be a better type this time around. Vangogo has plenty of speed and could stick better in this turn back from a route combined with the drop into a claimer for the first time in her career. If she can shake loose early, she could get brave late.
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RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Street Class; 6-Mo Reserve
Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a maiden special weight main track miler for older horses. Mo Reserve has been knocking on the door and may be ready to graduate in his eighth career start. The D’Amato-trained colt, runner-up in his last pair, should be within striking range throughout in a race without much pace and then have every opportunity to seal the deal with his grinding, one-paced style from the quarter pole home. Street Class, in the money in his last four outings, finished just behind Mo Reserve when they faced each othere in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month and shows two solid workouts over the Del Mar main track since then. While neither of the main contenders have displayed a true winning punch, they’re the main players basically by default.
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RACE 3: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Call You Tomorrow; 9-Baby Gronk
Forecast: Call You Tomorrow broke his maiden gamely in this third career start in June and was claimed for $50,000 by Koriner, who protects the son of Archarcharch in this starter’s allowance sprint in a sign of confidence. With rising speed figures that are good enough to win right back, the progressive 3-year-old appears the best of the speed types and offers wagering value at or near his morning line of 9/2. Baby Gronk draws the favorable outside post and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position and then have every opportunity to duplicate his recent maiden claiming win. The Spawr-trained gelding can build on that confidence with only a slight forward move, and a heathy series of slow and easy workouts – typical for this barn – should have him primed for another good effort. We’ll prefer Call You Tomorrow on top and have extra tickets with him both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post 3:37 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Bayonce; 9-Twentyseventrouts; 10-Smiling to Excess
Forecast: Smiling to Excess was well-meant in her debut at Los Alamitos but didn’t leave cleanly and probably lost her best chance early. She produced a good mid-race move to loom a threat but couldn’t follow through, winding a game third in a promising effort. If she leaves well from her outside draw in this five and one-half furlong sprint for juvenile fillies, the daughter of Smiling Tiger may never look back. Bayonce is a fast-working first-timer by Vronsky from the P. Eurton barn and has trained well enough to warrant strong consideration. A bullet half mile gate work in 47 2/5 seconds over the Del Mar main track, the fastest of 39, indicates she has plenty of ability and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Also worth tossing in is Twentyseventrouts, a daughter of the promising freshman stallion Competitive Edge from the Puype barn who has put together a solid series of workouts.
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RACE 5: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Wind Tartare; 8-Lady Phyllis; 9-Tammy’s Window
Forecast: This $25,000 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares and is quite challenging, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three, but if you find the need to spread even deeper, go right ahead. Tammy’s Window has won over this course in the past and returned to good form with a solid third place effort while making up ground against the grain in a restricted $35,000 affair at Santa Anita in early June. A similar effort today could be good enough in a wide open affair. Lady Phyllis is a consistent Bay Area invader fresh from a career-top effort when nosed out in a starter’s allowance affair in her most recent outing, and with only 10 career starts the daughter of Gone Astray may have room to improve that most of the others don’t. Capable of winning on the front end or from a stalking position, the S. Sherman-trained filly is a fit on numbers and offers value at or near her morning line of 6-1. Wind Tartare may not be big on winning (she’s 2-for-17) but the Belvoir-trained mare usually gets at least a piece of it and should enjoy a nice ground-saving trip from her inside draw. She’s also listed at 6-1 and is worth using at least as a saver.
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RACE 6: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Bulletproof One; 7-Cholula Lips
Forecast: Cholula Lips won her debut nicely at Santa Anita in May and then produced a significant forward move – she improved her Beyer speed figure by 21 points – when she wound up an excellent second in the Debutante Stakes at Churchill Downs the following month. Back with Cal-bred competition and drawn comfortably outside, the daughter of Empire Lady can return to her winning ways with a repeat of her most recent start, and bullet five furlong 59 seconds workout at Los Alamitos 10 days ago indicates she’s spot on. Bulletproof One is unbeaten in two starts, a pair of runaway victories against suspect competition in Northern California including a state-bred stakes vs. the boys at Pleasanton last month. She’s certainly fast; today will find out how good she is in her first start since being purchased privately and transferred to the P. Miller barn.
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RACE 7: Post 5:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Ocean Fury; 9-Honos Man
Forecast: Honos Man, an impressive maiden claiming winner at Churchill Downs in his first career start on grass, finds a suitable spot for a repeat score in this starter’s allowance turf miler that offers his connections a significant ship and win purse bonus. The Hess-Desormeaux team always must be respective, and the lightly-race son of Afleet Alex, with rising speed figures, appears set to produce another forward move in his West Coast debut. There’s plenty of value to be found at or near his morning line of 6-1. Ocean Fury is worth including as back-ups in rolling exotic play. The Stormy Atlantic colt has never taken a backward step on speed figures and exits a tougher allowance race, so the O’Neill-trained colt should be competitive with Bejarano staying aboard.
